When President Donald Trump arrives in Beijing subsequent Thursday, he’ll be the primary U.S. president to set foot in China in practically a decade. The final go to was Trump’s personal, in 2017.
He arrives in a really completely different place than he anticipated: the journey was initially scheduled for earlier this spring, then postponed due to the Iran struggle.
Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping shake arms as they arrive for talks on the Gimhae Air Base, situated subsequent to the Gimhae Worldwide Airport in Busan on October 30, 2025.
Andrew Caballero-reynolds/AFP by way of Getty Photographs
Trump had mentioned the struggle would solely final 4 to 6 weeks. As a substitute, there’s no finish in sight with the the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed and U.S. fuel costs surging — as the president faces record-low approval ratings.
That backdrop has flipped the leverage dynamic, in keeping with specialists who research the area.
The leverage flip
Beijing would have most popular this struggle by no means began — the vitality disruption and the hit to world demand are actual complications for an export-dependent economic system, specialists say. However they are saying the battle has handed Xi a relative benefit: Trump now has too many fires to place out at house and overseas to threat one other escalation cycle with China.
“China is a relative brilliant spot in Trump’s international coverage proper now,” mentioned Jon Czin, a former director for China on the Nationwide Safety Council.
The longer the Iran struggle drags on, Czin argued, the extra it minimizes the prospect of one other financial confrontation — Beijing has additionally already demonstrated it may possibly retaliate — as it did with tariffs and rare earth export controls — and the administration backed down earlier than.
Either side are nonetheless attempting to eke out an edge within the run-up. The Treasury Division not too long ago sanctioned Chinese language oil refiners and delivery companies tied to Iranian crude to chop off funding. In an unprecedented transfer, Beijing invoked a “blocking rule” for the primary time, directing Chinese language corporations to not adjust to sanctions on Chinese language oil refiners.
Daniel Shapiro, a former deputy assistant secretary of protection for the Center East, factors out the struggle has lowered the U.S. navy posture within the Indo-Pacific with long-term penalties for deterring China and defending Taiwan.
“Trump’s place and leverage on the summit is significantly weaker if he goes to Beijing with the struggle nonetheless unsettled, and even with renewed escalation. And the Iranians know that. So they’re whittling down the phrases to finish the struggle to one thing way more modest than what Trump initially envisioned,” Shapiro wrote in a put up on X.
What Trump desires
The administration clearly desires Beijing to make use of its affect over Tehran. Secretary of State Marco Rubio this week urged Beijing to make use of the Iran’s international minister’s go to to China earlier this week to press Tehran on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
“I hope the Chinese language inform him what he must be advised,” Rubio mentioned when requested about China’s high diplomat assembly with Iran’s international minister. “And that’s that what you’re doing within the strait is inflicting you to be globally remoted. You are the unhealthy man on this.”
Marco Rubio speaks throughout a press convention within the Brady Press Briefing Room on the White Home on Could 05, 2026 in Washington, DC.
Alex Wong/Getty Photographs
Past the struggle in Iran, Trump might be on the lookout for wins on commerce and funding: As an example, Chinese language commitments to purchase Boeing planes and U.S. agricultural items in addition to an extension of the commerce truce reached over the last Trump-Xi assembly in South Korea final yr, in keeping with specialists.
The administration additionally desires China to proceed its pause on uncommon earth export controls, analysts say. U.S. Commerce Consultant Jamieson Greer has additionally proposed a “Board of Trade” to handle financial ties between the nations and items the 2 sides are buying and selling.
What Beijing desires — and what it would not
Here is the hole between the administration’s public framing and what analysts who research China most carefully are saying: Beijing would not really plan to ship a lot on Iran or get deeply concerned.
Beijing’s assertion after the assembly with the Iranian International Ministry was fastidiously worded to not blame Iran for the disaster whereas additionally calling for better efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz.
“The Chinese language should not fascinated by assuming any form of direct position within the battle,” in keeping with Patricia Kim, senior fellow on the Brookings Establishment. “They see this as an issue that the USA wants to resolve, they usually have no real interest in intervening on Tehran’s behalf.”
Czin’s learn is analogous. Whereas Beijing’s assembly with the Iranian international minister this week let it “posture as peacemakers,” he says the Chinese language don’t need Iran to take up an excessive amount of summit time. His analog: even on North Korea, proper on China’s doorstep, Beijing hardly ever places actual stress on Pyongyang.
China’s vitality buffer is a part of why the urgency is decrease than the Trump administration assumes. Beijing has constructed strategic oil reserves, invested closely in inexperienced vitality, and may shift to domestically produced coal. The larger threat for China is not the vitality crunch itself.
“The larger concern for China is the secondary and tertiary results from this battle,” Czin mentioned — akin to a war-driven world slowdown that hits the Southeast Asian and European shoppers that Chinese language exports rely on.
What Beijing really desires from the summit is extra stability: lock within the commerce truce, push again on U.S. export controls on superior know-how and ease restrictions on Chinese language funding within the U.S.
What’s unclear is how onerous Xi will push Trump on Taiwan. Any small shift in U.S. declaratory language on Taiwan can be vital, although Czin is skeptical Trump would keep on with new wording even when he agreed to it.
Backside line
Count on fanfare, count on deliverables on the margins — buy commitments or a potential Board of Commerce announcement — and do not count on breakthroughs on the onerous points, specialists say.
The summit’s significance is much less in what it produces than in what it preserves: a tenuous stability that each leaders, for various causes, wish to maintain intact via the remainder of the yr.
