President Donald Trump has claimed Iran is having a tough time determining who its chief is and that there is infighting between hardliners and moderates. Over the past week, he has repeatedly claimed there are divisions or fractures within the management to clarify the dearth of progress in negotiations.
However ABC Information has spoken to a number of sources concerned in safety and coverage, and a former head of the Iran department within the Analysis and Evaluation Division (RAD) in Israeli protection intelligence, who all paint a really completely different image.
The general view is that decision-making in Iran is not centralized across the supreme chief because it was earlier than the battle and the consensus is that there will not be a big hole between completely different factions throughout the regime, regardless of Trump’s posts.
One regional coverage supply with information of the intelligence says, “there could also be variations in emphasis and strategy throughout the Iranian system, however there isn’t any clear proof of fractures on the stage of core decision-making.”
There’s concern that Iran has grow to be an more and more militarized nation tightly managed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The IRGC was established in 1979 by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini because the navy protector of the revolution and the regime.
Not like earlier than the battle, sources say determination making is now decentralized. Mojtaba Khamenei grew to become the supreme chief after his father, Ali Khamenei, was killed within the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, however he’s additionally in hiding and laborious to succeed in. That makes determination making sluggish and troublesome.
Iran’s new supreme chief, Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of late Iran’s Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, attends a gathering in Tehran, Iran, October 13, 2024.
Hamed Jafarnejad/West Asia Information Company through Reuters
Key members of this new politburo type system have been laid out by a number of safety sources. The one factor that binds all of them is the IRGC.
These embody:
- Mojtaba Khamenei, who additionally fought with the IRGC within the Iran-Iraq Conflict.
- Brigadier Normal Ahmad Vahidi, commander in chief of the IRGC.
- Normal Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, the top of the Supreme Nationwide Safety Council and former deputy commander of IRGC.
- Normal Yahya Rahim Safavi, who’s navy advisor to Mojtaba (as he was to his father) and likewise a former chief commander IRGC.
- Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of parliament, chief negotiator and former commander in chief of the IRGC.
Hypothesis concerning the new supreme chief
There was repeated hypothesis about Mojtaba Khamenei’s well being after he was badly injured within the bombing initially of the battle.
However most agree he’s acutely aware and concerned in decision-making. One senior safety official believes that whereas not all the pieces is dropped at the supreme chief he’s nonetheless making selections.
One other safety supply says the supreme chief stays in hiding and never in actual contact with anybody. There’s, nevertheless, a system of communication, of speaking to individuals and passing messages, however he doesn’t use the phone and isn’t assembly key individuals.
The supply added, “You’ll be able to’t run a rustic like that….They’re in disarray, however they’re nonetheless in management over the nation. I would not say they’ve misplaced management.”
U.S. Secretary of Protection Pete Hegseth says Mojtaba Khamenei was badly wounded and disfigured. The New York Instances experiences he’s “recovering from extreme accidents, together with burns on his face and lips, making it troublesome to talk — which may very well be a motive why he hasn’t proven himself publicly.”
Secretary of Protection Pete Hegseth speaks throughout a press briefing on the Pentagon in Washington, April 8, 2026.
Mandel Ngan/AFP through Getty Photographs
However the principle drawback for the Trump administration and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s authorities seems to be much less who’s now making selections however that there’s little temper to compromise.
An Israeli official pushed again on this narrative, telling ABC Information, “It is big, big [military] achievements… backside line is that Iran is weaker than it is ever been, ever, not even shut.”
Even so he insisted, ”there’s nonetheless loads to do. I believe loads, loads has been carried out, greater than anyone might have ever anticipated being carried out in 40 days. However there’s nonetheless stuff to do, and it will be carried out. It should both be carried out, both via negotiation, which I personally am sort of skeptical to, or it will likely be carried out by different means.”
There was reporting that Netanyahu pushed Trump into backing regime change. The Israeli official flatly denies this saying, “At no level did the Prime Minister set the objective, or attempt to persuade the President or America, or no matter, that the objective of this factor was regime change.”
The U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has grow to be entrance and middle on this battle and Trump desires to make use of financial stress to wring concessions from Iran. The Israeli official says, “I believe he [Trump] is, he is seeing that the blockade is working and subsequently there isn’t any actual motive to present [Iran] concessions. I believe lots of people underestimated his resolve.”
Danny Citrinowicz, former head of the Iran department within the Analysis and Evaluation Division (RAD) in Israeli protection intelligence and now senior researcher within the Iran and the Shi’ite Axis Program on the Institute for Nationwide Safety Research, says “on the finish of the day, we acquired what we did. You understand, that is the result that we created, which means that now we have a militarized nation managed by the IRGC.”
He thinks the issue with Trump’s ways — and people of Netanyahu — is that “he is searching for a silver bullet concerning the (Navy) marketing campaign, concerning the blockade, about one thing that can change the state of affairs. But it surely’s not going to occur, it’s totally reactive behaviour.”
Citrinowicz warns, “this is not a system that you may attain a compromise with,” criticizing Trump’s on-line posts as serving nothing apart from the Iranians it and saying “he is in despair.”
With the not-insignificant exception of the degrading of Iran’s offensive functionality, he believes the battle has failed to realize any of its major objectives.
Iranian capabilities nonetheless vital
This week, the U.S. Protection Intelligence Company reported that Iran nonetheless has vital capabilities, with 1000’s of missiles and assault drones. That is echoed by Israeli officers. The battle injury estimate is now put at 60% of missile launchers, however it’s acknowledged that in some instances these might be dug out and made operable.
Iranians stand on a pavement alongside a road subsequent to a billboard depicting Iran’s Supreme Chief Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, in Tehran, on April 24, 2026.
AFP through Getty Photographs
In line with Israeli safety officers, intelligence assessments recommend Iran nonetheless retains a ballistic missile arsenal within the 1000’s. The Israel Protection Forces says over 550 lengthy vary missiles had been launched by Iran at Israel from Feb 28 to the beginning of the ceasefire in early April.
Firstly of the battle, the IDF estimated Iran had about 2,500 ballistic missiles in its arsenal. That was a conservative estimate, and didn’t embody quick vary missiles which can’t attain Israel.
As for Iran’s nuclear capabilities, Citrinowicz warns that though “they do not have industrialized functionality (it would not) imply they do not have these capabilities” and that Iran has virtually a ton of enriched materials (from 20 to 60%) that may very well be extremely enriched to 90% (nuclear succesful) in a matter of weeks.
Each he and a senior intelligence supply warn Iran retains the power to cascade centrifuges and enrich uranium, which means merely eradicating the virtually 1,000 kilos of extremely enriched uranium which has been a part of the discussions up to now, wouldn’t be sufficient to disclaim Iran the potential for nuclear capabilities.
However the IAEA, the UN nuclear watchdog, has reported that the precise standing of Iran’s nuclear program is unsure. In February, the IAEA mentioned it can’t confirm “Iran’s inventories of centrifuges and associated tools.”
Israel’s intentions are clear. Israeli Protection Minister Israel Katz mentioned the nation “is ready to resume the battle in opposition to Iran.. We’re ready for the inexperienced gentle from the U.S. before everything to finish the elimination of the Khamenei dynasty and return Iran to the Darkish Ages and the Stone Age.”
However attaining this lofty objective has up to now proved elusive.
