Tensions between India and Pakistan considerably escalated final week, with the neighboring international locations exchanging fireplace for a number of days after India’s missile attack on Pakistan.
Whereas the 2 international locations introduced a full and instant ceasefire on Saturday, consultants say risks within the area stay.
The US conversed with Indian and Pakistani officers to dealer the ceasefire, in keeping with Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
India on Saturday night accused Pakistan of breaking the ceasefire, saying it’s responding to the violations.
The latest assaults got here after already rising tensions as India continued in charge Pakistan for a lethal assault in April within the disputed Kashmir area, a declare that Pakistan denies. That militant assault, referred to as the Pahalgam incident, left 26 individuals lifeless in Indian-controlled Kashmir.
“That is simply the latest in a collection of conflicts between Pakistan and India,” retired Col. Stephen Ganyard, an ABC Information contributor and former State Division official, stated. “Ever for the reason that formation of Pakistan within the mid to late ’40s, these two international locations haven’t gotten alongside.”
With each international locations possessing nuclear weapons, the specter of escalation is particularly regarding.
“Of anywhere on the planet, the simplest to think about a nuclear change occurring is between Pakistan and India,” Ganyard stated. “You have got these two neighbors with a lot hate, a lot historical past and much and many nuclear weapons exchanging reside fireplace.”
A person stands inside his home destroyed by Pakistani artillery shelling on the Salamabad village in Uri, Might 8, 2025.
Sajjad Hussain/AFP by way of Getty Photos
Kashmir at middle of battle
The origin of the latest hostilities between Pakistan and India largely dates again to 1947, after they gained their independence from British rule, in keeping with Surupa Gupta, a professor of political science and worldwide affairs on the College of Mary Washington in Virginia.
“When you consider the present battle, it’s actually about Kashmir,” Gupta informed ABC Information.
Sovereign, princely states within the subcontinent got the choice to accede to India or Pakistan on the time of independence, however Kashmir was amongst a number of that didn’t, she stated. Its ruler on the time finally agreed to signal a treaty of accession with India after looking for its help towards assaults on the state.
“Pakistan has by no means actually acknowledged that treaty of accession,” Gupta stated. “Pakistan’s argument has at all times been that Kashmir was, and continues to be, a Muslim-majority area, whereas they see India as a Hindu-majority state. Which it’s, however its origin story is as a secular state.”
A battle between India and Pakistan erupted over the Himalayan area, and in 1949, the 2 international locations agreed to determine a ceasefire line dividing Kashmir, which is very militarized and monitored by the United Nations.
At present, India controls the southern half of the Kashmir area and Pakistan controls the northern and western portion, although each lay declare to all of Kashmir. China additionally controls part of northeastern Kashmir.
“It is one of many few locations on the planet the place the geography could be very tight, the place borders are up towards one another, and so the tensions usually spill over as a result of they’re nonetheless competing for numerous elements of Kashmir and Jammu,” Ganyard stated.
Persevering with to gasoline the battle between India and Pakistan are sturdy nationalist sentiments and spiritual fervor, Ganyard stated.
“These are two international locations with very sturdy spiritual emotions, and that faith will get injected into the connection between the 2 international locations,” he stated. “So very sturdy Muslim inhabitants and really sturdy Muslim sentiment throughout the politics of Pakistan. Prime Minister Modi in India has been a really ardent Hindu nationalist.”
“All through humanity, essentially the most horrible, bloodiest sorts of conflicts between human beings are usually those who have spiritual fervor behind them. And in order that’s a part of what makes this so harmful,” he continued.
Years of hostilities
Within the ensuing a long time since gaining independence, India and Pakistan have fought a number of wars and battles, together with ones over Kashmir.
Lately, the battle has “manifested itself within the type of terrorist assaults on India,” Gupta stated, together with lethal assaults on navy targets in 2016 and 2019 and a siege focusing on Mumbai accommodations and a railway station in 2008.
For the reason that late Nineteen Eighties, “India has accused Pakistan of supporting worldwide Islamist terrorist teams working within Kashmir,” Manjari Chatterjee Miller, a senior fellow for India, Pakistan and South Asia for the Council on International Relations, informed ABC Information.
Tensions have calmed a bit in recent times, barring occasional clashes alongside the border areas, Ganyard stated.
Tourism in Kashmir has additionally elevated in recent times, serving to drive the financial system, and there was a “sense of normalcy,” Gupta stated.
An Indian paramilitary personnel stands guard close to Pahalgam, south of Srinagar, April 22, 2025, following an assault.
Tauseef Mustafa/AFP by way of Getty Photos
The April 22 assault close to the resort city of Pahalgam focused Indian vacationers, with the civilian assault marking a departure from the newer navy assaults on navy, Gupta and Miller stated.
India’s missile assault on Tuesday, which it stated focused “terrorist infrastructure” in Pakistan and Pakistan-controlled Jammu and Kashmir, was “very clearly a response to the bloodbath of the 26 vacationers,” Ganyard stated.
Earlier than the ceasefire was introduced, the world was “kind of holding their breath” and “ready to see if the stress will get let off a bit,” he stated, noting that it is “in one of the best curiosity of either side to not let this get out of hand.”
Neighboring nuclear powers
Since 1998, each India and Pakistan have nuclear arms, between 160 and 170 weapons every, Ganyard famous.
The 2 are amongst a handful of nations which have by no means signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. India has a no-first-use coverage for its nuclear weapons, which Pakistan doesn’t, Gupta famous.
“That is why that is so vital. You have got this spiritual fervor that divides the 2 international locations. This anger. You have got the nationalist pleasure of either side. After which you might have these two sides which have nuclear weapons. So very, very, very harmful cocktail, which is why it is so regarding that it might get uncontrolled,” Ganyard stated.
One other facet that might escalate conflicts is water. Following the April 22 assault, India suspended a key water treaty with Pakistan concerning the Indus River.
“There have been many individuals who’ve predicted that the subsequent battle can be fought over water,” Ganyard stated.
India had not beforehand suspended that treaty, marking a “departure,” Gupta stated.
If India restricts the move of water to Pakistan, “that could possibly be grounds for battle,” Ganyard stated.
Each India and Pakistan “have incentives to not escalate, however on the identical time the danger of escalation, notably by miscalculation, is actual,” Miller stated. “And anytime you might have battle between nuclear-armed neighbors, it is a critical situation.”
An aged man walks previous a home destroyed by Pakistani artillery shelling in Kalgi village in Uri, Might 8, 2025.
Sajjad Hussain/AFP by way of Getty Photos
‘Issues are by no means going to be good between these two international locations’
Amid considerations of additional escalation in its newest battle, India and Pakistan introduced Saturday they’d agreed to a full and instant ceasefire.
Prior to now, relations between India and Pakistan have de-escalated with the assistance of back-channel diplomacy and worldwide actors such because the U.S. have talked to each, Gupta stated.
“There have been situations the place the navy commanders have gotten in contact,” she stated. “Primarily based on a shared curiosity in avoiding a full-scale battle, each international locations have scaled it down.”
The ceasefire talks have been mediated by the U.S., with Rubio in an announcement commending the leaders of India and Pakistan for “selecting the trail of peace.”
The broader situation over Kashmir, although, is probably not resolved within the instant future, Gupta stated.
India has beforehand tried to barter a long-lasting peace with numerous Pakistani governments, however “the dearth of stability in who guidelines Pakistan is a significant component,” she stated, and the efforts haven’t gone anyplace.
“I believe there’s at all times a risk of resolving conflicts, however it does not appear instant. It does not appear possible within the quick run, within the medium run,” she stated. “It could require a number of effort to take action, a number of very honest effort to take action.”
Given the variable stressors, “issues are by no means going to be good between these two international locations,” Ganyard stated.
“Whether or not it is water, whether or not it is faith, whether or not it is territory, geography — there are such a lot of issues which can be consistently and going to proceed to annoy the connection between Pakistan and India that one of the best we will hope for is a few kind of very low-scale battle, or some kind of very excessive stress type of relationship, however not the change of nuclear weapons,” he stated.
