Islamabad, Pakistan – As United States Vice President JD Vance prepares to fly to Islamabad, Pakistan is racing towards time and the chances to attempt to persuade Tehran to affix talks with the US geared toward ending their warfare, now in its eighth week.
However whereas Pakistani officers near the mediation efforts stay cautiously hopeful that Iran may ship a negotiating crew for the talks by Wednesday, a collection of escalatory steps taken by the US over the previous 48 hours had by Tuesday night injected a dose of scepticism into Islamabad’s peacemaking efforts.
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Iran continues to publicly insist that it has no plans to return to the negotiating desk, at the same time as Pakistan and different mediators work behind the scenes to carry Tehran again into the room earlier than a two-week ceasefire expires on Wednesday night US time — early Thursday morning within the Center East.
No less than 9 US plane have landed in Pakistan over the previous three days, bringing personnel and gear for use by the Vance-led negotiating crew.
Vance is anticipated to depart from the US on Tuesday night Pakistan time — morning within the US — and arrive in Islamabad late morning on Wednesday. US President Donald Trump’s Particular Envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner are anticipated to affix Vance. The three officers had led the US delegation in the course of the first spherical of direct talks with Iran in Islamabad on April 11.
However it’s unclear who they’re coming to fulfill.
Earlier on Tuesday, Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan, Reza Amiri Moghadam, posted on social media, paraphrasing Jane Austen’s Delight and Prejudice, that it was “a fact universally acknowledged” that “a single nation in possession of a big civilisation is not going to negotiate beneath risk and drive”, calling it “a considerable, Islamic and theological precept”.
Iran’s Ministry of Overseas Affairs additionally stated it had no plans to re-engage diplomatically with Washington for now. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliament speaker and the pinnacle of its negotiating crew, was extra direct. In a submit on X early on Tuesday, he accused Trump of in search of to show the negotiating desk “right into a desk of give up or to justify renewed warmongering”.
“We don’t settle for negotiations beneath the shadow of threats,” Ghalibaf wrote, including that Iran had “ready to disclose new playing cards on the battlefield” over the earlier two weeks.
Iran’s judiciary chief, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, stated individually that Tehran should “keep 100% readiness” given a “sturdy chance” of additional US assaults.
Rising tensions at sea
These public statements comply with the most recent flashpoint between the 2 rivals, who’ve been at warfare because the US-Israeli assaults on Iran on February 28.
On Sunday, US naval forces fired on the Iranian-flagged cargo ship Touska within the Gulf of Oman and boarded it after it tried to move by way of a naval blockade that the US has enforced towards Iran-linked ships making an attempt to move by way of the Strait of Hormuz since April 13. Tehran referred to as the incident a ceasefire violation and demanded the quick launch of the ship, its crew members and their households.
Iran’s Overseas Ministry described the seizure as “extraordinarily harmful” and “prison”, warning that Tehran “will use all its capacities” to defend its nationwide pursuits.
On Tuesday, the US introduced that its forces had additionally boarded a second ship, this time within the Asia Pacific. The ship, cargo vessel M/T Tifani, was already beneath US sanctions for carrying Iranian oil.
For Javad Heiran-Nia, a researcher specialising in Iranian affairs, the Touska incident might nonetheless provide a slender opening.
“The discharge of the ship’s crew might be a inexperienced gentle for Iran to melt its place on returning to talks,” he informed Al Jazeera.
Umer Karim, an affiliate fellow on the Riyadh-based King Faisal Middle for Analysis and Islamic Research, stated the principal sign Iran was in search of was an finish to the US blockade, or a minimum of a transparent intent to calm down it.
He pointed to Iran’s conduct in the course of the first spherical. Tehran had initially conditioned its participation on a ceasefire in Lebanon, earlier than getting into talks with out one.
“That exhibits they’re pragmatic,” Karim informed Al Jazeera.
Muhammad Khatibi, a political analyst based mostly in Tehran, stated Iran’s place had been constant all through, as Iran believes that so long as it can’t export its oil, it is not going to enable others within the area to take action both.
A tangible easing of the blockade, he stated, didn’t must be publicly introduced, because it may take the type of reciprocal steps, “such because the US allowing a lot of Iranian oil shipments to proceed, with Tehran responding in variety”.
“Iran doesn’t search to re-engage in renewed battle,” he informed Al Jazeera. “However from Tehran’s perspective, this can be a warfare of survival, and it’s ready to combat with all accessible means till the very finish.”
The IRGC issue
The statements from Tehran additionally mirror a domestic political dynamic underpinning Iran’s public posture, stated analysts.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been pushing Iran’s negotiating crew to undertake a firmer line, they stated, conditioning any return to talks on a full finish to the US naval blockade.
Heiran-Nia stated the divide between the IRGC and the diplomatic crew was evident. He cited cases over the weekend when ships making an attempt to move by way of the strait had been allegedly fired on by Iran. India summoned Iran’s ambassador in New Delhi to boost issues about firing on two of its ships.
“The assault on tankers in the course of the ceasefire demonstrates the IRGC’s dominance over the diplomatic crew and its disregard for his or her positions,” he informed Al Jazeera.
But Heiran-Nia stated if a deal had been reached, it might probably override inside opposition.
“If a deal is reached, it is going to probably have a sovereign character,” he stated. “The institution will impose its personal narrative, and the IRGC will settle for it.”
What Pakistan is working with
Trump has set agency public pink traces. He has demanded Iran finish uranium enrichment and give up its present stockpile of enriched uranium. He has stated the US is not going to elevate the Hormuz blockade till Tehran agrees to barter.
“They’re going to barter, and in the event that they don’t, they’re going to see issues like they’ve by no means seen earlier than,” he stated in an interview on Monday.
The enrichment query stays the central fault line. In the course of the first spherical of talks, US negotiators proposed a 20-year pause on Iranian enrichment. Iran countered with 5 years. Trump has publicly stated he needs no enrichment and has refused to set a timeframe for this moratorium.
For Iran, Karim stated, the Strait of Hormuz isn’t merely a bargaining chip.
Tehran is in search of to extract most benefit from that leverage earlier than any deal is concluded, he stated, as a result of as soon as an settlement is reached, “these playing cards may not be performed”.
“Iran understands that it nonetheless has leverage,” Karim added, “and that it must be utilised to the utmost stage in any negotiations.”
Heiran-Nia stated Washington’s place on Hormuz was equally entrenched.
“The US needs to take away the Strait of Hormuz card from Iran’s hand,” he stated. “Iran, alternatively, needs not solely to protect it as a negotiating card but additionally to keep up it as a strategic asset.”
Trump’s messaging drawback
Complicating Pakistan’s efforts is Trump’s public messaging across the talks.
His posts on Reality Social and remarks to reporters, during which he claimed Iran had agreed to provisions that sources stated had not been finalised, together with the handover of enriched uranium, prompted seen pressure in diplomatic efforts in the course of the first spherical.
Iranian officers publicly rejected the assertions, whereas US media reported that some Trump administration officers privately acknowledged his feedback had been detrimental, given Tehran’s deep distrust of Washington.
Karim, nevertheless, stated Trump’s messaging was “extra a type of posturing than a structural impediment to the talks”.
Heiran-Nia stated how Islamabad frames the method shall be important, whatever the final result.
“Pakistan is the one actor that has army and safety ties with each Washington and Tehran,” he stated, including that its position in shaping the narrative round any settlement, permitting each side to assert success, could be “of important significance”.
What comes subsequent
A second spherical of talks, in the event that they happen, is anticipated to start on Wednesday.
Trump has prolonged the unique deadline by 24 hours, saying the truce now ends “Wednesday night Washington time”, which might be early morning Thursday in Islamabad, and described an additional extension as “extremely unlikely”. It was initially supposed to finish on Tuesday night within the US, or Wednesday morning within the Center East.
Whether or not Iran’s delegation attends stays the central query.
State broadcaster Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting stated on Tuesday that no Iranian diplomatic delegation, “be it a major or secondary crew, or an preliminary or follow-up mission”, had travelled to Islamabad.
An Iranian supply, nevertheless, stated there have been sturdy indications {that a} delegation would nonetheless journey to Pakistan, including that safety issues remained central to any determination.
Heiran-Nia stated the implications of failure within the deliberate talks could be stark.
“The choice, return to warfare, whereas unable to determine any sustainable stability, guarantees devastating destruction,” he stated.
