Xi Jinping is taking part in hardball.
The Chinese language president desires to indicate his people who the nation can stand up to the financial ache from President Donald Trump’s tariffs and stand as much as what Beijing is looking America’s “bullying,” in response to specialists.
Trump’s commerce struggle additionally feeds into the technique that Xi has been engaged on for years: change into much less reliant on the USA.
This breakdown in commerce is “precisely what Beijing has been making ready for,” mentioned Jude Blanchette, director of the RAND China Analysis Heart. “Beijing just isn’t searching for negotiation.”
The world’s superpowers are engaged in a dangerous sport of hen, specialists advised ABC Information. The query is who blinks first.
China’s President Xi Jinping in Beijing, March 28, 2025 and President Donald Trump, in Washington, April 7, 2025.
Getty Photographs/Reuters
“In the mean time, Xi appears to be calculating that China can stand up to the harm and that in the end it is the USA who will blink first,” mentioned Neil Thomas, a fellow for Chinese language politics on the Asia Society Coverage Institute’s Heart for China Evaluation
Xi’s view is that nations will wish to do enterprise much less with the U.S. due to the uncertainty created by tariffs, which can drive them towards China, mentioned Thomas, who added that China has been making ready for this risk for years by rising commerce relations with the remainder of the world.
“Each Washington and Beijing assume they maintain the stronger hand for various causes. The Trump administration sees China as export-dependent, in order that they imagine it is vital leverage to get the Chinese language to bend,” Blanchette mentioned. “Alternatively, Beijing sees the U.S. as more and more economically weak underneath Trump and distanced from its allies.”
Whereas Trump in his Cupboard assembly on Thursday referred to as Xi a “good friend” and mentioned he’d like to strike a take care of China, the calculus is not so easy for Xi. If Xi walks away from the telephone name with no deal, he dangers shedding face.
“For Xi, there’s an enormous quantity of danger of wanting weak in his dealings with the U.S. He dangers being humiliated or not having something to indicate for his engagement with Trump,” Thomas mentioned. “The tariffs might be economically painful, however Xi additionally sees this as a chance to get China right into a more healthy scenario by lowering reliance on the U.S.”
There are additionally different levers China can pull to retaliate. Specialists say Beijing may ban extra firms from doing enterprise in China and additional restrict exports of crucial supplies, akin to uncommon earth minerals.
China “hasn’t gone anyplace near the utmost that it may do with its uncommon earth exports, contemplating it is such a dominant participant within the trade,” Thomas mentioned.
China may “shut down big segments of high-tech provide chains” by banning uncommon earth minerals, Thomas mentioned, calling it “a nuclear possibility that may severely harm not simply the American economic system however European and Asian economies.”
Beijing has additionally mentioned it’ll limit Hollywood movies in China. Whereas it isn’t a “vital” retaliation, Thomas mentioned that “it feeds proper into Xi Jinping’s broader political agenda to cut back overseas affect on Chinese language society.”
However Scott Kenney, senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese language enterprise and economics on the Heart for Strategic and Worldwide Research, argued that Beijing believes Trump has already blinked by pausing the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days.
“I feel the Chinese language will learn this as weak spot from President Trump and they’ll wait,” he mentioned.
