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Client confidence within the UK rose for the second consecutive month in June, supported by a extra optimistic financial outlook, in response to a carefully watched survey that raises hopes of stronger family spending.
The GfK shopper confidence index — a measure of how folks view their private funds and broader financial prospects — rose two factors to minus 18 in June, the analysis group mentioned on Friday.
It adopted a three-point enchancment in Might and took the rating to ranges final seen on the finish of 2024, earlier than US President Donald Trump introduced tariffs on most American imports. Nevertheless, it remained nicely beneath the 2015-19 common of minus 5.6.
Neil Bellamy, shopper insights director at GfK, mentioned the rise in confidence was “pushed by enhancements in how shoppers see the final financial system”.
However, he warned, sentiment remained “fragile”, citing rising oil costs linked to battle within the Center East and continued tensions over tariffs. “Now could be actually not the time to hope for the proverbial ‘gentle on the finish of the tunnel’,” he mentioned.
Policymakers monitor shopper confidence as an indicator of future spending, which impacts financial progress.
Client spending has remained weak over the previous 12 months regardless of wages rising quicker than inflation. Family consumption contributed solely 0.1 proportion level to the 0.7 per cent general financial progress within the first three months of the 12 months.
With interviews carried out within the first half of June, the GfK index confirmed that expectations for the final financial outlook over the subsequent 12 months rose 5 factors to minus 28. Nevertheless, the index monitoring respondents’ views of their future private funds remained unchanged at 2.
Improved financial information for the primary quarter and new UK-US commerce agreements, which cut back the chance posed by Trump’s import tariffs, have led economists to lift their progress forecasts.
Analysts anticipate UK financial progress of 1 per cent in 2025, up from 0.7 per cent they forecast in April, in response to information by Consensus Economics, an organization that averages main forecasters.
A separate survey by the British Retail Consortium this week additionally indicated that general sentiment is enhancing.
The findings confirmed that the proportion of individuals anticipating the financial system to enhance over the subsequent three months rose to 34 per cent in June, from 28 per cent in Might and 24 per cent in April. Spending intentions additionally elevated.
Helen Dickinson, chief govt of the British Retail Consortium, mentioned youthful generations had registered “the largest enchancment” in each their financial outlook and private finance expectations. This will likely partly replicate an increase within the minimal wage in April, she famous.
