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UK client confidence fell this month to the bottom degree since late 2023 as greater inflation following the warfare within the Center East brought on “jitters” amongst households, darkening the outlook for spending and financial progress.
The GfK client confidence index — a measure of how individuals view their private funds and broader financial prospects — dropped by 4 factors in April to minus 25, the analysis group mentioned on Thursday.
It was the third consecutive decline and the biggest month-on-month fall since April 2025, when Donald Trump announced his sweeping “liberation day” tariffs. It was additionally the bottom studying since October 2023, when banks’ mortgage charges have been near their latest peak.
Neil Bellamy, client insights director at GfK, mentioned: “Shoppers actually do have the jitters now.”
He added: “Everyone seems to be grappling with speedy value rises, particularly on the gasoline pumps, that are taking a dent out of family budgets, and folks know additional value hikes are coming.”
Unleaded petrol costs on the pump averaged 157.6 pence per litre within the week to April 20, up from 131.7 pence per litre in the identical week in February, in response to official information.
Expectations of upper inflation have put stress on mortgage charges as monetary markets value in that the Financial institution of England will increase rates of interest this yr. On Thursday, the typical two-year mounted mortgage fee was 5.82 per cent, a fee that has stabilised over the previous few weeks, however is up from 4.83 per cent at the beginning of March, in response to Moneyfacts.
Ashley Webb, economist on the consultancy Capital Economics, mentioned he now anticipated client spending to rise by 0.1 per cent in 2026, which is down from the 0.8 per cent he anticipated earlier than the battle, principally due to greater inflation.
Economists polled by Consensus Economics minimize their expectations for UK family consumption progress for this yr to solely 0.6 per cent in April, down from 1 per cent anticipated in February, earlier than the warfare within the Center East.
Weak client spending would weigh on progress as family consumption accounts for greater than half of spending throughout the economy.
Ellie Henderson, economist on the financial institution Investec, famous that whereas fuel costs had risen nowhere close to the peaks reached within the aftermath of the Russian invasion, “the labour market is notably looser now than it was then, limiting client resilience”.
On Wednesday, official information confirmed that inflation rose to three.3 per cent in March, up from 3 per cent. Early in April, the consultancy Cornwall Perception projected a 13 per cent improve in July to the UK vitality value cap, which dictates typical family payments, however down from the 20 per cent rise predicted in March following adjustments in vitality costs.
GfK reported that the largest declines have been in perceptions of the UK financial system, with an eight-point slide in views on the financial image over the previous 12 months to minus 51. There was additionally a six-point fall in expectation for the financial system within the yr forward, to minus 43.
Views on customers’ private monetary scenario additionally darkened, with the index monitoring the outlook for the yr forward falling 5 factors to minus 4, the bottom since October 2023.
The one measure that went up was monitoring saving intentions, up 5 factors to 32. That is “typically a sign that persons are involved about what lies forward, so those that can are constructing contingency funds,” mentioned Bellamy.
