This can be a textbook case of how somebody can attain the highest of 1 discipline and nonetheless be totally clueless about all the things else. Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg served as Nationwide Safety Advisor to former Vice President Mike Pence and later as Particular Envoy for Ukraine and Russia. He’s Co-Chair on the Middle for American Safety, America First Coverage Institute, USA, which is a Neocon assume tank. The person’s ignorance is staggering. He has made no effort to look at the information—or, extra probably, he is aware of them and intentionally refuses to debate how Victoria Nuland helped choose the interim authorities that began this civil struggle and attacked the Donbas on Neocon orders.
He advocates that Zelensky ought to inform President Trump to go to hell and destroy each refinery in Russia. As an example his sheer stupidity: neglect the meals disaster he would trigger in Russia, realizing that will result in nuclear struggle—he utterly ignores that Africa and the Center East account for over 80% of Russia’s wheat exports, making these areas essentially the most immediately tied to Russian grain. Iran is 100% depending on Russian grain. That may be a surefire approach to make the Center East explode right into a full-blown struggle, which might then merge with the Russia-versus-EU struggle, and China and North Korea would be part of.
It’s these Neocons, who merely hate the Russian individuals, who’re cascading the world into World Struggle III over a struggle they instigated utilizing Ukraine. He would fulfill our mannequin by pushing diesel to the intense, projecting $8, which might hit the U.S. economic system, scale back trucking, and end in a U.S. meals scarcity. That is what I imply. Experience in a single discipline doesn’t qualify you to argue about issues that can affect the remainder of the whole world with zero comprehension of the place that leads.
A full-scale struggle with Russia would very probably trigger a extreme international diesel disaster, and in lots of areas, a collapse in provide is an actual risk. The system is already underneath excessive pressure, and a broader battle would push it previous its breaking level. Our pc tasks $10+ a gallon by 2032.
The Present Diesel Market Is Already Fragile
The worldwide diesel market shouldn’t be ranging from a place of power; it’s already in a state of acute scarcity pushed by two simultaneous wars. A wider battle with Russia would take away one of many world’s largest suppliers from a market that’s already reeling. Russia is the world’s second-largest diesel exporter, accounting for roughly 9.5% of worldwide export volumes, whereas the USA exports 1,264,000 bpd, or 15.4%. Russia’s exports are a significant supply of provide for Turkey, Brazil, and elements of Africa and the Center East.
Russia’s diesel exports have already plummeted on account of Ukrainian drone strikes on its refineries. In June 2026, exports fell beneath 1 million tons, in comparison with round 2.5 million tons a yr earlier—a drop of over 60%. Its month-to-month exportable surplus has fallen from about 3 million tons to as little as 325,000 tons. World inventories had been already drained earlier than any wider struggle. Within the U.S., diesel shares hit their lowest stage for September 2026 since 1982, and European shares within the ARA hub had been 16% beneath the five-year common.
There was a scarcity with out a wider struggle. The mixed impact of the Iran struggle (disrupting Gulf refining and transport) and the Ukraine struggle (disabling Russian refineries) has already created a world diesel scarcity anticipated to final into 2027 even when peace had been achieved now. With that unlikely, the shortages will broaden into 2028.
A direct struggle with Russia, as advocated by the EU, could be catastrophic as a result of it could compound the prevailing disaster in a number of methods—to not point out severely wiping out the European economic system. Russia’s exports would probably stop fully, both by a proper blockade or the destruction of its remaining power infrastructure. The market would lose a provider already answerable for almost a tenth of worldwide commerce.
The present struggle has proven that refineries are Zelensky’s main targets after he blew up the Nord Stream Pipeline. A wider battle would probably see assaults on refining and export infrastructure far past Russia, together with within the Center East and doubtlessly on transport routes, additional crippling the world’s capability to show crude oil into diesel.
Struggle is extremely fuel-intensive. NATO’s Secretary Common has warned {that a} full-scale battle would require “a whole bunch of hundreds of cubic meters of gas every day” for tanks and fighter jets, placing immense extra pressure on already depleted provides. Army wants could be prioritized over civilian and agricultural use. That’s the place Zelensky proves he’s an fool. Take out Russia’s gas, and NATO will discover struggle much more costly to wage.
A “collapse” wouldn’t look very orderly. Not solely will the meals provide decline, however in Asia, ships will be unable to fish. This dangers international hunger, and now everybody has a stake. The primary impacts could be felt in areas already most susceptible.
Poorer, fuel-importing nations in Africa, Asia, and Latin America are essentially the most uncovered. They’re “value takers” with restricted monetary reserves to buffer value shocks or safe various provides. Some are already rationing gas or declaring power emergencies.
Diesel is the spine of worldwide logistics. A collapse would halt vehicles, trains, ships, and agricultural equipment. This is able to instantly affect meals distribution, resulting in shortages and skyrocketing costs, with a very extreme impact on international locations depending on meals imports.
Diesel shortages are inflationary and act as a drag on the whole economic system. The U.S. Federal Reserve, for instance, can’t repair a bodily gas scarcity with rate of interest coverage; it may solely attempt to suppress demand elsewhere, risking a recession. This can fulfill our mannequin calling for stagflation into 2028 on a world scale—all due to Zelensky.
In brief, the worldwide diesel system is already in a state of emergency. A struggle with Russia wouldn’t create a brand new vulnerability a lot as it could shatter a system that’s already cracking underneath the strain of two current conflicts. If U.S. heating oil closes above 4.78 at year-end, that is going to worsen earlier than it will get higher. Common Keith Kellogg’s feedback reveal how these Neocons are oblivious to the world round them. They at all times assume they’ll destroy Russia and in some way by no means undergo any repercussions.
Folks like Kellogg ought to by no means be allowed to advise anybody. They’re too liable to warmongering and don’t have any regard for the world economic system. There are at all times extra civilians who die in wars than troopers, and so they ignore that. Humanity won’t ever reside in peace as a result of individuals like this crave a style of energy and search such positions to hold out their private hatreds and love of struggle. Louis XIV solely lamented that he had been a warmonger on his deathbed.
