COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I’m a brand new subscriber and simply needed to say thanks. Your work has given me an actual understanding of how time and worth work together, and it’s outstanding how your forecasts keep away from the bias that pervades everybody else’s predictions. Even with all of the geopolitical noise, gold dropped into June simply as you forecasted firstly of the 12 months. It simply proves that every thing hinges on what folks imagine.
Thanks for the training.
Shane
REPLY: What I’ve at all times discovered is that TIME is extra vital than PRICE. You could have a finite period of time and that dictates the development. PRICE is secondary. You may have a worth goal, however for those who run out of TIME, the sport is over.
TIME and PRICE are two completely separate forecasts that should align to substantiate a significant market turning level. PRICE alone is meaningless with out the right timing.
The Primacy of Time
TIME is the dominant and extra vital issue . It’s the “material of the universe,” not only a element of market evaluation. The central thought is {that a} market transfer reaching a particular worth degree will not be vital until it happens at a predetermined time limit.
Value as a Secondary Goal
Value targets are decided by patterns and reversals, however they’re at all times secondary and should be “earned” by the market. Within the Down, I had offered a number of worth targets (e.g., for the Dow: 18,500, 23,000, 40,000, 55,000, 65,000). The bottom line is that reaching one goal earlier than the TIME goal signaled the subsequent worth degree turns into doable.
Markets are seen as a sequence of related occasions (a “wave of contagion”). By understanding the “hidden order” inside this obvious chaos, one can outline eventualities to navigate the market, reasonably than making an attempt to foretell it with one-dimensional certainty. Those that argue Random Walks are incapable to seeing each PATTERNS in addition to TIME. As Einstein stated, God doesn’t play cube with the universe.
