NFL Week 1 is a liar, and we all the time appear to neglect that.
Simply final season, the Las Vegas Raiders beat the New England Patriots, the Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets mixed for 66 factors and J.J. McCarthy gained NFC Offensive Participant of the Week for main the Minnesota Vikings to a comeback victory towards the Chicago Bears in Week 1.
In honor of these lies, let’s break down some Week 1 overreactions and choose which of them would possibly really be legitimate.
Kansas City Chiefs are the group to beat within the AFC once more: Legitimate response
The Chiefs had one unhealthy season, and all of us abruptly forgot what this group is with a wholesome Patrick Mahomes on the helm. Mahomes and firm reminded everybody who runs the AFC with a 31-10 thrashing of the Denver Broncos on “Monday Evening Soccer” to kick off the 2026 season.
The difficulty for Kansas Metropolis lately has been its abysmal working sport, however that is now not a weak point after Kenneth Walker III rumbled for 173 speeding yards and a landing in his debut. The Chiefs are formally Tremendous Bowl contenders once more.
Chicago Bears are going to interrupt the NFL scoring file: Overreaction
Bears head coach Ben Johnson explicitly acknowledged this offseason that he needs to interrupt the single-season scoring file held by the 2013 Denver Broncos, and he bought off to a roaring begin with 59 factors in Week 1. Nonetheless, Chicago would wish to common 37.6 factors per sport the remainder of the season to interrupt the file.
The Bears averaged 25.7 factors per sport final season with the identical offensive personnel. A 12-point leap could be remarkable, and they do not get to play the Carolina Panthers each week. Chicago’s offense will doubtless come again to earth within the subsequent two weeks towards the Vikings and the Philadelphia Eagles.
New York Giants can win the NFC East: Legitimate response
The Giants did not drop 59 factors in Week 1, however their 28-20 victory towards the Dallas Cowboys was virtually as spectacular. New York’s offense led the NFL in EPA per play (0.363) and dropback success fee (69.7 %) in Week 1, and the protection held Dallas’ high-powered passing offense to simply 175 yards by means of the air.
The Eagles and Commanders did not look overly spectacular of their Week 1 matchup, and the Cowboys clearly nonetheless have evident defensive points. If the Giants can keep wholesome, there is no purpose they cannot compete for the NFC East crown this season.
Los Angeles Rams are an overrated tremendous group: Overreaction
The Rams took over as Tremendous Bowl favorites once they added Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald to an already-stellar protection. After predictions of an unstoppable tremendous group and an undefeated season echoed by means of the NFL media scape, L.A. flopped in Week 1 with a 27-7 loss to the San Francisco 49ers.
Regardless of the Rams’ embarrassing debut, we’re keen to throw this outcome out and look forward to extra proof. For one, Los Angeles flew midway the world over to Australia and performed earlier than assimilating to the native time zone. Matthew Stafford additionally struggled mightily, however he deserves extra grace coming off an MVP season in 2025. Donald did not even play in Week 1, and he nonetheless has the flexibility to provide this protection a serious increase.
The Rams are taking part in for February — not September. We’ll must see just a few extra losses earlier than urgent the panic button.
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