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Former Spanish central financial institution governor Pablo Hernández de Cos is essentially the most certified candidate in a tightly contested race to succeed Christine Lagarde as European Central Financial institution president, based on a survey of financial coverage specialists by OMFIF.
The 20 specialists polled by the London-based financial think-tank this month discovered Hernández de Cos led a listing of 5 high contenders for the job when score their deserves in 9 dimensions, together with central financial institution expertise, fame for management and consensus constructing, disaster administration capability and expertise.
Hernández de Cos, at the moment common supervisor of the Basel-based Financial institution for Worldwide Settlements, was adopted by Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel, former Dutch central financial institution chief Klaas Knot and outgoing French governor François Villeroy de Galhau.
Hernández de Cos is usually seen as a centrist with a slight dovish bias, whereas Villeroy de Galhau is seen as a centrist and Nagel and Knot are thought of to be average hawks.
The ECB president was chosen in an “opaque” course of by EU governments and the result was laborious to foretell due to its political nature, OMFIF vice-chair John Orchard instructed the FT. It has traditionally been topic to last-minute behind-the-scenes horse-trading amongst capitals.
Spain and Germany are the 2 largest Eurozone members to by no means have held the highest job within the ECB’s 27-year historical past. However the truth that the European Fee is at the moment headed by a German is seen as a key impediment for Nagel.
Whereas Lagarde’s eight-year time period won’t expire till October 2027, a “smooth lobbying course of has already began amongst a number of the contenders”, which suggests “there’s a likelihood that the choice might be taken ahead of later”, Orchard mentioned.
The FT reported in February that Lagarde anticipated to resign early to allow outgoing French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to fill one of many EU’s most vital jobs forward of the pivotal 2027 French presidential election.
Nevertheless, the renewed inflation dangers triggered by the Iran conflict might intrude with that plan. “When there [are] huge clouds on the horizon, the captain doesn’t go away the ship — and this captain isn’t going to go away the ship as a result of I see clouds,” Lagarde instructed Bloomberg TV final week.
OMFIF’s survey, which polled the consultancy’s educational advisers and board members, ranked the 5 mostly talked about contenders utilizing 1 as the best grade and 5 because the lowest.
Hernández de Cos, who took over the BIS in 2025 and ran the Financial institution of Spain for eight years, obtained a median mark of 1.77. He additionally got here out first in an FT ballot amongst educational and private-sector economists published earlier this year.
The ballot additionally gave excessive marks to Nagel (1.9), Knot (1.92) and Villeroy de Galhau (1.94) whereas ECB board member Isabel Schnabel got here out fifth (2.57).
“It’s a tight race” with “a variety of extremely certified contenders for the job”, mentioned Orchard, including that the danger of disruptions in authorities bond markets over the approaching years might check the subsequent ECB president’s monetary markets experience and disaster administration expertise.
In each these dimensions, Nagel obtained the best marks of all 5 contenders. Hernández de Cos was ranked highest for his financial economics coaching, his fame for consensus constructing, his European credentials and his capability to win help from key member states apart from his residence nation.
Previously, frontrunners haven’t at all times been profitable, and compromise candidates have emerged in direction of the tip of the method. The late nomination of then-IMF boss Lagarde in 2019 caught many observers without warning.
Final yr, the FT reported that Lagarde had mentioned leaving the ECB early to change into chair of the World Financial Discussion board.
Information visualisation by Keith Fray
