One indication got here when the 2 leaders met on Jul 28 in Washington. Mr Trump reiterated his dedication to licensing Ukraine to co-produce parts for Patriot PAC-3 interceptor missiles and speed up the cheaper PAC-3 ACE variant. This is able to ease strain on the US-only provide chain that at present struggles to produce two simultaneous wars.
Whereas the US president appeared to have second ideas concerning the licensing deal on two days later, it’s clearly not off the desk.
US strain on Kyiv to make concessions to Moscow has additionally receded, one other signal that the Iran warfare has elevated Kyiv’s room to manoeuvre. Taken along with Ukraine’s safety cooperation agreements signed with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar in March, these developments cement Ukraine’s position as a defence collaborator in Europe and within the Gulf.
CHANGING CALCULATIONS, NOT TRAJECTORIES
Russia nonetheless seems like clearest internet beneficiary of the Iran warfare.
The spike in oil and gasoline costs, pushed by the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has been price an estimated 200 million barrels in further revenue-equivalent for Russia, helped additional by Washington’s loosening of sanctions towards consumers of Russian oil like India. The diversion of Patriot interceptors away from Kyiv and in the direction of the Center East has weakened Ukrainian air defences and enabled Russia to accentuate its missile and drone assaults on Ukraine.
