C.J. Stroud’s regression puts Texans in tough spot

On the finish of the 2023 season, the Houston Texans appeared like a group in an excellent state of affairs. They’d a younger quarterback, C.J. Stroud, coming off a monster rookie season and had simply gained a playoff sport, exceeding all preseason expectations and elevating the bar for what can be anticipated in future seasons.

However two years later, they’ve but to take the following step. In some methods, they appear to have regressed. That’s very true with the younger quarterback. 

In terms of his regular-season performances, Stroud has regressed the previous two seasons and never but recaptured the magic he had from his rookie season. Maybe much more regarding is the way in which he performed in Houston’s two playoff video games this 12 months, turning the ball over seven occasions in two video games. The Texans have been in a position to overcome that within the wild-card spherical, however it did not go as well within the divisional spherical Sunday towards the New England Patriots.

Now, it has them in a troublesome spot relating to Stroud’s future, and he could possibly be coming into a possible make-or-break season in Houston in 2026.

Texans nonetheless have to determine what they’ve in C.J. Stroud

The difficulty for the Texans is not essentially Stroud’s means or manufacturing, and even these previous two playoff video games.

He’s not as unhealthy as he performed in these video games. He has three years of movie and information to point out that. Although his play has stagnated, and maybe even regressed, he’s nonetheless a superb NFL quarterback. Is he nice? No. Is he one of many elites on the place? No. There are groups with objectively higher quarterbacks than him. 

However there are additionally groups — and a whole lot of them — with considerably worse quarterbacks. 

An excessive amount of of the narrative round quarterbacks within the NFL proper now could be centered round quarterbacks both being elite or completely incompetent. There’s a important vary of gamers in between these two tiers. Stroud is in that vary.

The issue is there’s not a lot of a variety by way of compensation on contracts. 

Whereas there’s a center class of NFL quarterbacks by way of play, there isn’t a actual center class by way of monetary compensation or salary-cap commitments. Everyone on the place will get paid if they’re even competent as a starter, and that’s what will get a whole lot of groups in bother.

While you begin getting right into a state of affairs the place you might be paying gamers like Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray or Tua Tagovailoa the identical sum of money that Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen are getting paid (or a minimum of in the identical ballpark), you’re going to restrict how one can construct the remainder of your group. Generally investing within the fallacious quarterback is worse and extra damaging than having no quarterback. 

That’s the concern the Texans have to begin contemplating with regards to Stroud. 

Is he going to take the following step, get nearer to the elite tier and get the Texans nearer to the Tremendous Bowl? Or is he merely a superb however not fairly nice quarterback? 

The Texans might do him some favors by surrounding him with a greater offensive line, operating again and extensive receivers. However Stroud additionally has to do extra. That’s what will make subsequent season so essential for him and the Texans as they determine whether or not or to not spend money on him with a long-term contract extension.