Variety of Australians aged 85 or older projected to triple by 2065-66, in accordance with authorities forecast.
Printed On 21 Sep 2026
Australia will see extra deaths than births by the 2060s, hitting a milestone already surpassed by superior economies together with Japan, Germany and France, in accordance with a authorities report.
In its newest Intergenerational Report launched on Monday, Australia’s Treasury forecast that the nation’s inhabitants will hit 39.3 million by 2065-66, 1.8 million decrease than projected in its final outlook in 2023.
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The Treasury stated it expects inhabitants progress to common 0.9 % yearly over the following 4 a long time, in contrast with 1.4 % over the prior 40 years.
The variety of Australians aged 85 or older is projected to triple by 2065-66, with immigration accounting for all inhabitants progress because the fertility charge falls to 1.34, the Treasury stated.
Regardless of plunging birthrates, the Treasury stated it expects the economic system to greater than double in dimension by the mid-2060s, citing productiveness beneficial properties because of synthetic intelligence and better workforce participation by girls and older Australians.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers stated that whereas Australia’s economic system faces severe dangers because of the demographic shift, it additionally holds “substantial” benefits in contrast with its friends.
“The report confirms Australia is best positioned and higher ready to cope with speedy change than most international locations, however regardless of our benefits we can’t be complacent,” Chalmers stated in an announcement accompanying the report.
The outlook comes as Australia, whose financial progress is essentially depending on migration-driven inhabitants progress, grapples with deteriorating residing requirements amid a long-term slowdown in labour productiveness.
The 20-year common for annual productiveness progress fell to 0.8 % in 2023-24, in contrast with 1.8 % in 2003-04, in accordance with the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
The Enterprise Council of Australia expressed scepticism concerning the authorities’s financial outlook, saying the expectation that long-term productiveness progress will rise to 1.2 % because of AI “can’t be taken without any consideration”.
The council, which represents greater than 120 of Australia’s largest firms, stated actual gross home product per particular person is nearly $2,000 decrease at the moment than anticipated beneath the 2023 forecast because of weak productiveness progress.
“This isn’t an issue that begins 40 years from now – Australians are already paying the value for our failure to elevate productiveness by means of decrease residing requirements,” Enterprise Council Chief Government Bran Black stated.
“Each man, girl and baby in Australia is nearly $2,000 worse off as a result of we haven’t achieved the trail anticipated within the 2023 Intergenerational Report.”
