“We voluntarily destroy our weapons … as a step of goodwill and willpower,” stated senior Kurdistan Staff’ Celebration (PKK) chief Bese Hozat, talking in entrance of a gathering of the group’s fighters.
The footage, filmed final Friday within the northern Iraqi metropolis of Sulaimaniyah, then exhibits the fighters – about 30 of them – putting their weapons inside a cauldron, where they were set alight.
The ceremony might have been symbolic, but it surely capped what is likely to be one of many most consequential periods in Turkiye’s current political historical past. It wraps up a fastidiously deliberate sequence of gestures and messages, and exhibits that each side will not be simply coordinating symbolically, however are additionally politically aligned of their intent to maneuver from armed battle to political dialogue.
The choreography of the build-up to the ceremony unfolded with outstanding precision, revealing each political coordination and calculated restraint. Such an alignment would have been unimaginable with out mutual recognition between the PKK and Turkiye of the significance of what was about to occur, in addition to the results of any failure.
On July 7, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan obtained his nation’s pro-Kurdish DEM Celebration delegation for the second time in 4 months. A smiling group photograph from the assembly was extensively circulated, signalling each the normalisation of dialogue and the symbolic approval of the method on the highest stage.
Two days later, on July 9, Abdullah Ocalan – the imprisoned PKK chief and founder – appeared in a seven-minute video launched by ANF, the PKK’s affiliated media outlet. It marked his first public visible look in 26 years and carried a easy however historic message: The time for arms has ended.
In it, Ocalan emphasised that the motion’s authentic purpose, the popularity of Kurdish id, had been achieved, and that political engagement should now exchange armed resistance. The message was as a lot to the PKK because it was to the general public.
Lastly, on July 13, Erdogan addressed the governing AK Celebration’s retreat, reaffirming his dedication to the disarmament process and asserting {that a} parliamentary fee can be established to handle its authorized framework. His message aimed to reassure the broader public, particularly his supporters, that the method would strengthen nationwide untiy and advantages all of Turkiye’s residents, no matter their ethnicity.
Message to the Kurdish public
Ocalan’s uncommon video message aimed to reassure his Kurdish supporters that this was not a defeat, however a recalibration: a shift from armed wrestle to political engagement. The message was fastidiously measured and stripped of triumphalism; it sought to redefine the previous, moderately than glorify it.
The dignified tone of the weapons-burning ceremony allowed each the PKK and state narratives to coexist. It didn’t alienate those that had sacrificed for the PKK’s wrestle – activists, politicians in jail or exile, and the households of the disappeared. As an alternative, it signalled that their voices had been heard.
Regardless of his years of isolation, Ocalan’s phrases nonetheless carry weight. Not solely due to his symbolic authority, however as a result of his message displays what many Kurds now search: dignity with out martyrdom, a voice with out violence, and a future past armed wrestle.
Public assist for disarmament is rising, even amongst these lengthy sceptical of the state’s intent. Current surveys present that greater than 90 p.c of DEM voters, in addition to those that establish as Kurdish or Zaza (a Kurdish-adjacent minority group) in Turkiye, assist the method. Perception that the PKK will absolutely disarm can also be considerably greater than the nationwide common.
The PKK’s determination to disarm will not be a retreat however a recalibration.
Since its founding in 1978, the group has waged a protracted armed wrestle in opposition to the Turkish state, demanding autonomy and rights for Kurds. However after a long time of riot, the regional panorama has modified.
In northern Iraq and Syria, the PKK’s operational area has altered. Whereas the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a key PKK-linked actor, stays lively in northeastern Syria, its future hinges on shifting US commitments and delicate understandings with the brand new authorities in Damascus, an ally of Turkiye.
On the similar time, Iran’s weakening regional affect, sustained Turkish navy strain, and a quiet however rising desire amongst Western actors for a steady Turkiye have all contributed to reshaping the group’s strategic calculus.
Crucially, this recalibration doesn’t battle with the USA and Israel’s core pursuits in curbing Iranian affect and sustaining a manageable established order in Syria.
In opposition to this backdrop, a disarmed and politically engaged Kurdish motion in Turkiye will not be an remoted anomaly. On this context, the PKK has opted to step off the battlefield and into the political enviornment. As Ocalan expressed in his July 9 message, “I imagine within the power of peace, not the pressure of arms.”
The weapons-burning ceremony will not be the top of the disarmament course of. A Turkish parliamentary fee is anticipated to outline the circumstances for the reintegration of PKK fighters into civilian and political life in Turkiye, whereas a verification mechanism involving the Turkish Armed Forces and intelligence company will monitor disarmament and subject a report back to information additional steps.
Hozat, the PKK senior chief, framed the ceremony as a political milestone, and reaffirmed the group’s ambition to enter civilian politics, expressing an purpose to develop into “pioneers of democratic politics in Amed [Diyarbakir], Ankara, and Istanbul” – a deliberate reference to key centres of Kurdish illustration in Turkiye and nationwide political energy.
But this transition hinges on complete authorized reforms and credible ensures which are each socially and politically viable, and civil society teams and humanitarian organisations in Turkiye are more likely to play an lively function within the forthcoming phases of full disarmament.
Turkish political assist
In Turkiye, there may be broad buy-in for the peace course of with the PKK from throughout the political spectrum.
That is largely as a result of the method advantages almost all political actors by decreasing the securitised political local weather, easing judicial strain, and providing an opportunity to reset deeply polarised governance.
With “terrorism” prices having been used expansively lately, even members of the opposition Republican Folks’s Celebration (CHP) have discovered themselves entangled in authorized issues. On this context, a de-escalation appeals to many, together with get together leaders comparable to Ozgur Ozel and Ekrem Imamoglu, even when many stay cautious of the AK Celebration’s intentions. For a lot of CHP supporters, what they view because the contradiction of a reconciliation effort with the PKK unfolding alongside a clampdown on opposition mayors is difficult to disregard.
Different Turkish events have been supportive, regardless of coming from completely different political traditions. The DEM Celebration has, in fact, been a central a part of the negotiations and the messaging {that a} web page has been turned on the previous.
It’s notable that the group that the Nationalist Motion Celebration (MHP) – maybe the Turkish political get together most against the DEM Celebration and lengthy a staunch opponent of any rapprochement with Kurdish nationalist teams – has additionally publicly backed the method, and certainly has additionally been closely concerned within the choreography previously few months.
Its chief, Devlet Bahceli, has been entrance and centre within the course of, formally inviting Ocalan to dissolve the PKK and reaching out to DEM members of parliament. His pragmatic stance has stemmed from his perception that the top of the PKK’s armed marketing campaign aligns with nationwide pursuits. The truth is, delays within the course of have been in the end overcome with assistance from the MHP chief.
And the AK Celebration has steered the peace course of by way of a few of its central figures, together with Efkan Ala, a former inside minister and one in all Erdogan’s most-trusted political allies. Erdogan has personally taken on the duty of normalising the discourse of creating peace with the PKK.
Nonetheless, not everybody within the get together could also be on board. Years of battle with the PKK and assaults from the group, securitised rhetoric, the criminalisation of DEM-aligned actors, and the stigma surrounding any cooperation with the DEM Celebration have left deep inside reservations. Stepping away from that place will not be straightforward, even when Erdogan has set a transparent tone, signalling agency dedication from the very high of the Turkish institution.
Potential pitfalls
This isn’t a traditional peace course of, neither is it a one-sided act of capitulation.
Reasonably, it marks a convergence – tenuous, advanced, and partial – between two longstanding adversaries.
Spoilers exist – throughout the state, amongst political factions, and throughout the border – however to this point, none has derailed the method.
However these tied to the struggle financial system, ideological hardliners, or actors who thrive in a securitised local weather may but attempt, even when the method has already weathered quite a lot of potential pitfalls, together with the Turkish navy bombing PKK positions in March and regional turbulence within the type of the struggle between Israel and Iran.
Nevertheless, that doesn’t imply that no future issues might come up. What lies forward could also be even tougher. With out significant political reforms or ensures, the area opened up by disarmament might shortly slim once more.
On the Kurdish political facet, many questions additionally nonetheless stay.
DEM Co-Chair Tuncer Bakirhan, talking in an interview with the Kurdish media outlet Rudaw final Wednesday, emphasised that symbolic gestures should be adopted by institutional motion.
“We’ve got submitted our proposals to the speaker of parliament,” he famous, together with mechanisms for reintegrating former militants into political and civilian life. “We don’t must dwell on the main points — these will observe. However there should be readability: What occurs to those that disarm? The place do they go? What protections will they’ve? These will not be trivia; they’re the inspiration of a reputable peace.”
He’s proper to level out that disarmament alone will not be sufficient; it’s merely the place to begin. The true query is what comes subsequent.
What’s going to occur to these imprisoned on “terror” prices, whether or not for political causes or previous involvement in armed wrestle?
What concerning the fighters nonetheless within the mountains, the households stranded and the political figures exiled in Iraq, Europe or elsewhere? And what concerning the broader ecosystem: civil society actors, journalists, and others lengthy caught within the gray zones of criminalisation?
For the PKK’s disarmament to achieve this level, the correct home and geopolitical circumstances needed to align, and at present, they’ve.
Weapons can be burned, and the armed chapter, probably together with the Syrian entrance, as hinted by ongoing however troublesome negotiations between the SDF and Damascus, will come to a detailed inside Turkiye’s borders. However from this level on, consultant politics, diplomacy, and public deliberation will matter greater than ever.
It marks a historic threshold. What follows will rely not on symbols, however on substance: on the braveness to legislate, to decentralise energy, and to belief society’s readiness for coexistence.
Nobody can absolutely predict how the area will evolve, and most actors are possible getting ready for a number of eventualities, not a single roadmap.
The long-term affect of this transfer stays unclear and maybe intentionally so.
