QUESTION: Why do you say there’s a time bomb ticking in Alberta?
Jeff
ANSWER: Separatist actions globally usually have financial calls for; they often additionally contain non secular, linguistic, or nationalist components. Nevertheless, some separatist actions emerge for financial causes. We noticed that within the US Civil Struggle, when the South seceded. That was all about economics, the place they cited the slavery concern and eliminating their workforce. Remember the fact that this was about 50 years earlier than the invention of farm equipment.
The “glue” holding Alberta inside Canada is primarily the clear mainstream public opinion of Alberta residents and their emotional attachment to Canadian identification, slightly than financial, non secular, linguistic, and even nationalist points. Though separatist sentiment exists, it stays a minority. Within the October 2026 referendum, roughly 76% of voters supported persevering with to stay in Canada. Carney fostered that claiming Trump needed to story Canada because the 51st state. Constitutionally, that will be not possible since that will change the steadiness of energy within the Senate and the Democrats would insist on additionally admitting Puerto Rico, Guam, and Washington, DC. However Carney efficiently gained energy by utilizing Trump, who was silly sufficient to even speak about a 51st state.
Essential monetary backers of the motion embrace oil and fuel firm executives in Calgary, and the motion envisions an unbiased Alberta turning into an “oil state” like Qatar or the UAE, free from federal regulation.
The concept that Alberta’s vitality wealth subsidizes different provinces is a core grievance of the Alberta separatist motion. What is going to occur would be the identical response to a battle with Russia the place vitality costs rise dramatically into 2028 as came about through the ’70s and OPEC Disaster. Through the oil disaster of the Seventies, the tax proposals below dialogue primarily focused windfall income of oil firms (Windfall Revenue Tax). With the prospect of oil attain $200 within the 12 months forward, this may grow to be a sticking concern that resurfaces. There aren’t any pipelines from Alberta going East. They nonetheless import oil from Center East. Carney will resort to Windfall Income Tax to compensate the East.
As they are saying in OPERA, it ain’t over till the fats woman sings, for she often has one of the best voice.
