Addis Ababa, Ethiopia – When Ethiopia’s federal authorities and the Tigray Individuals’s Liberation Entrance (TPLF) signed the Pretoria Settlement in November 2022, it was meant to finish two years of devastating conflict.
The settlement referred to as for a everlasting cessation of hostilities, the disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration of Tigrayan forces, political dialogue and the return of displaced folks. Article 7 additionally required the TPLF to chorus from conscription, coaching, deployment and mobilisation of navy forces, in addition to preparations for renewed battle.
Practically 4 years later, the large-scale conflict has ended, however most of the disputes that fuelled it stay unresolved.
Extra considerably, the interval since 2024 has seen the TPLF reposition itself politically and organisationally whereas retaining navy leverage and creating new relationships.
The sequence is putting: TPLF contacts with Eritrean officers, together with reported conferences in Dubai and Zalambessa; a renewed wrestle over political management in Tigray; stories of recruitment and mobilisation; new clashes involving Tigrayan forces; and the emergence of Tsimdo, a unfastened convergence of teams against the federal authorities.
Taken collectively, the developments increase a query over whether or not Pretoria turned much less a accomplished transition to peace than a interval wherein the TPLF might regroup and reposition itself whereas the underlying battle remained unresolved.
There is no such thing as a proof that the TPLF entered the settlement with a predetermined plan to make use of it as a tactical pause. However the occasions since 2024 recommend that the motion has retained an organisational and safety position that Pretoria was purported to diminish.
What occurred to disarmament?
Article 6 established the method for disarming, demobilising and reintegrating TPLF fighters. Tigrayan forces handed over heavy weapons after the settlement, and hundreds of former combatants have entered demobilisation programmes.
However the course of didn’t absolutely dismantle the area’s navy buildings.
In 2026, stories emerged of renewed recruitment and compelled mobilisation in Tigray. If confirmed, such exercise would transcend the unfinished implementation of the disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) course of and straight problem Article 7’s ban on conscription and mobilisation.
The excellence between organised mobilisation and the views of Tigray’s civilian inhabitants is necessary.
There is no such thing as a foundation for assuming that Tigrayans as an entire assist a return to conflict. Many are nonetheless residing with the implications of the final battle.
A civilian supply in Tigray, who spoke to Al Jazeera on situation of anonymity, mentioned: “The folks of Tigray need peace; we don’t need a second conflict.”
For these civilians, stories of recruitment carry a easy implication: the potential of being pulled again right into a battle they believed had ended.
How did the TPLF reposition itself?
The change was not solely within the navy.
From 2024, the TPLF was more and more consumed by an inside wrestle over its path after the conflict. The interior conferences and political manoeuvring shaped a part of a wider contest over the motion’s future.
The wrestle ultimately reached Tigray’s political establishments.
Getachew Reda was eliminated as head of the interim administration in 2025 and changed by Lieutenant Common Tadesse Werede.
Then, in Might 2026, the Tigray regional council was reinstated and elected Debretsion Gebremichael as president, strengthening the place of the faction round him.
The developments confirmed that the TPLF remained a robust political power in Tigray. As an alternative of a settled post-war political order rising, the area was once more caught in a wrestle over authority whereas the safety query remained unresolved.
When did politics flip again into preventing?
By early 2026, political tensions had been accompanied by navy developments.
Tigray Defence Forces-aligned troops crossed the Tekeze River into the disputed Tselemt district in January and clashed with Ethiopian federal forces. Later, TDF-aligned fighters took management of Alamata and Korem after a federal command put up withdrew.
By August, preventing had once more damaged out in western Tigray close to the Sudanese border, in one other severe breach of the peace settlement.
The federal authorities and the TPLF blamed one another for the escalation, whereas duty for initiating the clashes remained disputed.
However the renewed preventing demonstrated that organised armed forces had been nonetheless able to mobilising and contesting territory.
The unfinished disarmament has subsequently turn out to be extra consequential because the political disputes left unresolved by Pretoria have begun to coincide with renewed navy exercise.
Why are former enemies discovering frequent floor?
The repositioning has prolonged past Tigray.
Eritrea and the TPLF fought a devastating border conflict from 1998 to 2000. Eritrean forces later fought alongside Ethiopia’s federal authorities in opposition to the TPLF through the 2020-22 Tigray conflict.
But the post-Pretoria interval has introduced stories of nearer contacts between Eritrea and parts of the TPLF.
Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of supporting the TPLF and utilizing it as a proxy. Eritrea rejects that characterisation.
A broader realignment is mirrored within the emergence of Tsimdo, a unfastened convergence of teams against the federal authorities.
Latest reporting has recognized cooperation involving the TPLF, Fano, the Oromo Liberation Military (OLA) and different armed teams. Fano chief Zemene Kassie has confirmed the existence of such a coalition whereas saying Eritrea isn’t at the moment a part of it.
The importance of Tsimdo lies not merely in whether or not its members share the identical political programme, however in what they seem keen to place apart to cooperate.
Main disputes stay unresolved: displaced folks have but to return to some contested areas, together with Welkait, whereas territorial claims proceed to divide Tigray and Amhara actors.
But teams that after fought on opposing sides now seem keen to put aside a few of these variations when cooperation can improve strain on the federal authorities.
![Ethiopia’s Tigray region remains caught between an unfinished peace process and renewed political and military tensions nearly four years after the Pretoria agreement ended the war [Yasuyoshi Chiba / AFP]](https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/AFP__20210702__9DP9XW__v4__MidRes__TopshotEthiopiaTigrayConflict-1786011717.jpg?w=770&resize=770%2C513&quality=80)
That raises an extra query in regards to the TPLF’s post-Pretoria technique. The organisation seems to be rebuilding its political affect whereas retaining hyperlinks to navy buildings, whilst many Tigrayans stay displaced and concern renewed mobilisation.
The rising convergence factors to a probably widening hole between the strategic calculations of political and armed actors and the speedy pursuits of civilians nonetheless coping with the implications of conflict.
The teams have completely different histories and political ambitions, and their cooperation could not final. However their willingness to search out frequent floor in opposition to Addis Ababa issues.
For the TPLF, Tsimdo presents one other enviornment wherein to construct political and strategic relationships past Tigray.
What did Pretoria go away unresolved?
The conflict displaced about 1.9 million folks. Many stay unable to return, significantly to disputed areas together with Welkait, Tsegede, Humera and Raya.
These territorial disputes stay carefully tied to the return of displaced Tigrayans, whereas the political relationship between Tigray and the federal authorities stays unsettled.
The federal authorities has additionally didn’t ship on necessary parts of the post-war settlement. However these failures don’t erase the TPLF’s commitments underneath Pretoria.
Article 6 envisaged the disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration of its fighters. Article 7 banned conscription, mobilisation and preparations for renewed battle.
The document since 2024 doesn’t show that Pretoria was intentionally utilized by the TPLF to purchase time.
It does, nevertheless, present a motion that has remained politically organised, fought to regain management of Tigray’s establishments, retained hyperlinks to armed buildings and located new potential companions because the settlement stalled.
Pretoria ended the large-scale conflict. It didn’t settle the wrestle over energy, territory and safety that lay beneath it.
For Tigrayans, nevertheless, the calculations are easier.
A younger man from Tigray, who spoke to Al Jazeera on situation of anonymity, mentioned: “The concern of being drafted is what’s making many youth lose hope.”
