The New England Patriots enter Week 12 within the driver’s seat to win the AFC East. They’ve a two-game lead over the Buffalo Bills, have already gained the primary head-to-head assembly and solely play one sport the remainder of the best way towards a workforce that at present a profitable report — Buffalo.
The largest story involving the Patriots this season is the emergence of second-year quarterback Drake Maye and his rise to stardom. He has modified all the things for the franchise and, on the floor, has made them a viable Tremendous Bowl contender in a wide-open AFC.
Are the Patriots “idiot’s gold”?
Former Patriots quarterback and one-time NFL MVP Got here Newton referred to New England as “fool’s gold.” Why? The workforce’s schedule.
The subplot to the Patriots’ success is the aforementioned schedule itself. Particularly, how tender it has been. The Patriots enter Week 12 having performed what’s mathematically the NFL’s second-softest schedule, with solely the Chicago Bears (.348) having a decrease power of schedule quantity than the Patriots (.363).
Together with that, the Patriots’ power of victory (.355) is the second-lowest amongst groups at present in a playoff place, forward of solely the Bears (.285).
If there’s a crimson flag with groups just like the Patriots and Bears, it’s the easy reality they’ve each performed extraordinarily favorable schedules thus far and haven’t but been totally examined. However does this imply something on the subject of potential playoff success?
It would.
NFL groups with low power of victory numbers are likely to battle in playoffs
There are not any simple video games within the NFL. This isn’t faculty soccer the place Alabama can simply schedule a directional faculty from Missouri and pay them cash to indicate up for a 60-point win. All people is nice. All people is able to beating all people else on any given week. However there are video games which can be considerably harder than others. Up to now this season, the Patriots and Bears probably not performed any of these.
New England, for instance, has performed simply 4 groups that at present have a profitable report. It’s 3-1 in these video games, having overwhelmed Buffalo, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Carolina Panthers, whereas additionally shedding to Pittsburgh.
The Bears, in the meantime, have performed only one sport towards a workforce with a profitable report (the Detroit Lions) and misplaced by 31 factors. The Bears even have a 14-point loss to a .500 Baltimore Ravens workforce.
However what precisely does this imply for the playoffs?
Properly, in case you return over the previous 10 seasons, there have been 23 groups that entered the playoffs with a power of victory variety of .400 or decrease.
(Power of victory and schedule numbers via ESPN’s playoff standings page.)
Solely 9 of these 23 groups gained a playoff sport.
Solely three of them (the 2024 Washington Commanders, 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 2017 Jacksonville Jaguars) gained multiple playoff sport.
Mixed, these groups went simply 14-21 general of their respective playoff video games. That’s solely a .400 profitable share. Not precisely plenty of success as soon as they began taking part in harder groups.
Just one workforce that has appeared in a Tremendous Bowl over the previous 10 years has carried out so with a power of victory quantity decrease than .400 (the 2020 Buccaneers), whereas no Tremendous Bowl workforce over that stretch has had a decrease power of schedule quantity than .439.
On the finish of the day groups can solely play who the NFL tells them to play. Good groups additionally ought to beat up on lesser groups. No one ought to apologize for profitable within the NFL. However there can nonetheless be some questions as to how good sure groups truly are.
The Patriots have video games with Buffalo and Baltimore remaining that shall be their hardest checks.
The Bears play a frightening schedule the remainder of the best way with Pittsburgh, Detroit, the Philadelphia Eagles, the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers (twice).
How these groups do in these video games will inform us rather a lot about their playoff probabilities.
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