Whereas two wars on Iran by america and Israel have uncovered critical vulnerabilities in Iran’s intelligence and safety establishments, Iran is utilizing the menace to crack down on dissent, analysts have stated.
Saeid Golkar, an affiliate professor in political science on the College of Tennessee at Chattanooga, stated the real espionage threats confronted by Iran had been illustrated by the killing of high-level figures, together with former Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on the primary day of the most recent assault by Israel and the US on February 28.
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“On the similar time, the regime has traditionally used actual or, more often than not, perceived safety threats to justify political repression and broaden its coercive equipment,” Golkar informed Al Jazeera.
“The present crackdown seems to replicate each reputable counterintelligence issues and the regime’s broader efforts to suppress dissent and intimidate society.”
Spy menace
Former Israeli spy chief David Barnea lately stated that within the weeks earlier than Israel launched its 12-day struggle on Iran in June 2025, he had authorised the entry into the nation of dozens of brokers with clear intelligence or sabotage assignments.
“I can’t say that they’re right here with us. However they’re there in Tehran, residing their lives,” he informed a convention in Israel on October 22.
In line with Barnea, who was the director of Mossad for 5 years till June 2026, Israeli intelligence tried to maximise the variety of Iranian residents arrested by native authorities with a view to protect its real brokers inside Iran.
Simply hours after launching the struggle and killing senior commanders and nuclear scientists, they intentionally released footage of agents inside Iran with a Mossad brand, resulting in the arrests of 1000’s of individuals with no hyperlinks to the Israeli intelligence service.
Barnea claimed the technique labored, and nearly all of their belongings remained unidentified. Eight months right into a second struggle launched by Israel and the US in opposition to Iran, with the said intention of overthrowing the Islamic republic, Iran’s paranoia stays.
Iranian authorities have considerably accelerated judicial punishments for instances linked to nationwide safety for the reason that 2025 struggle. That has entailed mass arrests, expedited prosecutions, prolonged imprisonment, asset confiscations and executions.
The folks focused embrace alleged spies but additionally protesters, journalists, attorneys and minorities. Amnesty Worldwide and Human Rights Watch have documented instances involving coerced confessions, the denial of efficient defence and nationwide safety prices utilized to dissenters.
“The espionage menace dealing with Iran could be very actual. The 2 US-Israeli wars uncovered critical vulnerabilities in Iran’s intelligence and safety equipment… Tehran has reputable issues about overseas infiltration, sabotage, and intelligence operations contained in the nation, particularly as the specter of one other navy escalation stays excessive,” Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow with the Middle for Worldwide Coverage, stated.
“However there’s a basic distinction between espionage and dissent,” she added. “Espionage entails covertly gathering delicate intelligence or helping overseas intelligence operations. Criticising the federal government, reporting on its failures, participating with overseas media, or difficult official narratives doesn’t, in itself, represent espionage. The Iranian authorities have more and more blurred this distinction, treating political opposition and impartial reporting as extensions of overseas intelligence exercise.”
‘Hybrid struggle’
Iranian authorities argue that overseas intelligence operations are aimed not solely at overthrowing the federal government but additionally fragmenting the nation.
Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence stated in Might that “enemies” had been combining espionage, sabotage, hostile media, exploitation of financial crises and fuelling ethnic and sectarian tensions as a part of a “hybrid struggle”.
Judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei has repeatedly invoked wartime circumstances and home legal guidelines to argue for pressing safety measures, and accelerated the punishment of alleged collaborators as a way of defending the nation.
Judiciary spokesman Ali Kazemi stated earlier in October that there have been energetic instances involving not less than 1,895 folks, together with 94 media staff, accused of cooperation with Israel or different hostile states. Police had introduced not less than 21,000 arrests following the June 2025 struggle, whereas not less than 50,000 folks had been detained in reference to the nationwide protests in January 2026. 1000’s of civilians had been killed within the crackdown in opposition to antigovernment protests throughout Iran, in accordance with US-based rights organisation HRANA.
The authorities have referred to the nationwide protests as a “coup” orchestrated fully by Israeli and US intelligence companies. The Iranian authorities additionally claims that Mossad and different intelligence brokers killed protesters. However an impartial United Nations fact-finding mission stated the authorities committed crimes against humanity throughout their most violent crackdown for the reason that revolution.
Executions linked with safety prices have additionally elevated following the wars and protests. At the least 19 folks had been hanged in espionage-related instances between June and December 2025, in accordance with the UN.
Iran Human Rights, an Oslo-based nonprofit group, stated it recorded 16 espionage defendants executed between January and September 2026, alongside 33 protesters and 13 prisoners affiliated with banned teams. The group had tracked not less than 604 executions by early October.
Amnesty Worldwide reported not less than 34 executions this yr linked to the January nationwide protests by October 13, together with 5 between September 30 and October 5.
‘Securitising each side of life’
Iranian authorities have warned the general public about Mossad and different intelligence companies working cyber-operations to broaden their affect in Iran, accusing them of recruiting folks by social media and on-line gives.
Sending photos or data to networks deemed to be hostile to the Iranian authorities – together with BBC Persian – may lead to sentences of 10 to fifteen years in jail and heavy fines. Mixed with different offences, it may result in potential prices of “corruption on Earth”, which carry the dying penalty.
The authorities additionally regard the Starlink satellite tv for pc web service as a “tool of war” used for espionage, data gathering and even working drones by “enemy” brokers inside Iran. Tens of 1000’s of Starlink terminals have been smuggled into the nation regardless of extreme punishments for distributing and utilizing the service. Iranian authorities have tried to confiscate or jam them.
For a number of days through the 12-day struggle, 20 days through the January protests and 88 days firstly of the present struggle, Iran imposed a near-total internet shutdown on 90 million Iranians. The official causes ranged from defending nationwide belongings in opposition to cyberattacks to disrupting hostile drones. The worldwide web stays severely filtered in Iran, and authorities have warned it could possibly be disrupted once more in case of navy escalation.
College of Tennessee at Chattanooga’s Golkar stated that by blurring the road between espionage and political opposition, authorities more and more deal with protesters, journalists and odd residents as potential threats to nationwide safety.
“Finally, the Islamic republic more and more treats regime safety and nationwide safety as interchangeable ideas. Whereas counterespionage is a reputable state perform, it has additionally turn into a instrument to guard the ruling institution and broaden the affect of safety establishments,” he stated.
“Briefly, and over time, the Islamic republic has remodeled right into a security-dominated regime that more and more securitises almost each side of political and social life, together with peaceable civic activism, treating even nonviolent expressions of dissent as potential threats to regime survival”.
