QUESTION: Marty, I do know you warned a couple of bubble in 2000, and I feel you had been speaking about capital inflows from China and Europe due to the approaching Euro. Is that this the identical final result because the Dow rising now out of worry of battle, and can it will definitely create a bubble right here like in 2000?
REPLY: Bubble are at all times a results of CAPITAL CONCENTRATION which our pc picks up in monitoring worldwide capital flows. That is the video clip from the February 1999 WEC. Again then, our quantity for the breakout was 9750 on the Dow. As soon as that was exceeded, the Bubble started.
Along with the 40% of worldwide financial savings in Japan was was shifting to US property, the formation of the EU noticed Germany demanding austerity and elevating taxes on the remainder of Europe. They had been demanding that Britain shut down the Channel Islands that had been getting used as tax havens. Capital was fleeing Europe due to this austerity being pushed by Germany. So the 2000 DOT.COM bubble was extra than simply costs. It was enabled by the capital inflows.
The excessive shaped the week of March sixth, 2000 whereas February posted the best month-to-month closing. There was a two month preliminary correction all the way down to 304266 from a March excessive intraday of 51352 and Might was the Cycle Low that was a Panic Cycle with April offering the Directional Change. The bounce was into July after which August was the Directional Change and October began the Panic. The preliminary low shaped in April 2001 adopted by the ultimate low in October 2002.
The market bottomed with the ECM in October 2002 with the ECM low being November sixth, 2002. That was an attention-grabbing ECM Wave. The subsequent ECM wave noticed the rally and peak in 2007 with the Nice Recession crash into 2009 with gold peaking on the backside of that wave in 2011 within the heels of the European Sovereign Debt Disaster which started with Greece asking for an IMF mortgage on the very day of the Pi Goal.
The Subsequent ECM wave bottomed exact with the beginning of the COVID Pandemic. Now we face the formidable turning level going into 2028. This present wave peaked exactly to the day that Putin was sworn in. That was sending up a warning flar that this wave would contain Russia. All we see now’s Russia, Russia, Russia, and hail Zelensky.
So far as the NEXT Bubble and Capital Focus, we’ll cope with that on the WEC. On December 18, 2019 (2019.964) the Home impeached Trump on costs of abuse of energy and obstruction of Congress associated to his dealings with Ukraine. The Democrats once more on January 13, 2021 (2021.035) impeached Trump for a second time on a single cost of “incitement of revolt” following the assault on the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. In each cases, the Senate subsequently acquitted him, and he remained in workplace. The distinction was simply 1.071 years.
The turning level 2026.496 was the response low in oil with July 20206 producing the intraday Low at 67.04, however June produced the bottom month-to-month closing at 69.50. Since that turning level we now have witnessed crude oil rising once more. We ought to be on guard for a rally into February and probably into June 2027. We are going to evaluate that on the WEC.
