After america and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran on Saturday, killing Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and a number of other senior officers, Tehran moved shortly to reply.
Iran mentioned its retaliation focused Israel and US-linked army websites throughout the area, together with in Gulf states that host US forces.
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The opening trade has sharpened the central query for regional capitals and world markets: Will this stay a cycle of reciprocal strikes, or will it evolve into an extended marketing campaign formed by Iran’s strike attain, allied forces and strain on transport and power infrastructure?
On the coronary heart of the query is Iran’s missile arsenal and the opposite platforms and instruments at its disposal to inflict ache on the US and others.
Why this time seems to be completely different
In contrast to the 12-day struggle that the US and Israel waged on Iran in June 2025, Khamenei’s killing seems to have satisfied Tehran that the conflict is a battle for the Islamic Republic’s very survival.
In Tehran’s narrative, delayed or restrained retaliation dangers being seen as weak point and an invite to additional assaults.
On Sunday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian mentioned searching for revenge for the killing of Khamenei and different senior officers is the nation’s “obligation and bonafide proper”.
However what are the methods during which Iran is taking that “revenge”?
Iran’s missile playbook: Arsenal, vary and technique
Iran’s missile pressure is central to the way it fights and indicators. Defence analysts describe it because the Center East’s largest and most various, spanning ballistic and cruise missiles, and designed to offer Tehran attain even with out a trendy air pressure.
Iranian officers solid the nation’s missile programme because the spine of deterrence, partly as a result of the air pressure depends on ageing plane. Western governments argue that Iran’s missiles gas regional instability and will assist a future nuclear supply function – a declare Tehran rejects.
The longest-range Iranian ballistic missiles can journey between 2,000km (1,243 miles) and a pair of,500km (1,553 miles). That implies that these missiles can attain Israel, US-linked bases throughout the Gulf and far of the broader area — however opposite to claims by Trump and a few in his orbit, these missiles can’t come near reaching the US.
Brief-range missiles: The ‘first punch’
Brief-range ballistic missiles – roughly 150-800km (93-500 miles) – are constructed for close by army targets and speedy regional strikes.
Core techniques embrace the Fateh variants: Zolfaghar, Qiam-1 and older Shahab-1/2 missiles. Their shorter vary might be a bonus in a disaster. They are often launched in volleys, compressing warning time and making pre-emption more durable.
Iran used this playbook in January 2020, firing ballistic missiles at Iraq’s Ain al-Assad airbase after the US killed Qassem Soleimani, the nation’s highest-profile normal. The assault broken infrastructure and left greater than 100 US personnel with traumatic mind accidents, demonstrating that Iran may inflict excessive prices with out matching US air energy.
Medium-range missiles: Altering the map
If short-range missiles are Iran’s rapid-volley reply, medium-range ballistic missiles – roughly 1,500-2,000km (900-1,200 miles) – are what flip retaliation right into a regional equation. Programs similar to Shahab-3, Emad, Ghadr-1, the Khorramshahr variants and Sejjil underpin Iran’s capacity to hit additional afield, alongside newer designs like Kheibar Shekan and Haj Qassem.
Sejjil stands out as a solid-fuel system, typically permitting sooner launch readiness than liquid-fuel missiles – a bonus if Iran expects incoming strikes and wishes survivable, responsive choices.
Taken collectively, these medium-range missiles place Israel and a large arc of US-linked amenities in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates inside vary, widening each Iran’s goal record and the area’s publicity.
Cruise missiles and drones: The low‑flying drawback
Cruise missiles fly low, can hug terrain, and are sometimes more durable to detect and observe – particularly when launched alongside drones or ballistic salvoes designed to overload air defences.
Iran is broadly assessed to area land-attack and antiship cruise missiles, similar to Soumar, Ya-Ali, the Quds variants, Hoveyzeh, Paveh and Ra’advert. The Soumar has a variety of two,500km (1,553 miles).
Drones add one other layer of strain. Slower than missiles however cheaper and simpler to launch in giant numbers, one-way assault drones could also be utilized in repeated waves to put on down air defences and hold airports, ports and power websites on rolling alert for hours, not minutes. Analysts say this saturation tactic is prone to characteristic extra prominently if the confrontation deepens.
Underground ‘missile cities’: Surviving the primary blows
Missile numbers matter, however in a sustained confrontation, the important thing query is how lengthy Iran can hold firing after absorbing strikes.
Tehran has spent years hardening components of its programme in underground storage tunnels, hid bases and guarded launch websites throughout the nation. That community makes it more durable to shortly degrade Iran’s capacity to launch, and forces adversaries to imagine that some functionality will survive even a big first wave of assaults.
For army planners, that survivability means choices to additional hit Iran’s missile infrastructure carry the danger of extended exchanges reasonably than a brief, decisive marketing campaign.
Strait of Hormuz: Disruption with out a formal blockade
Iran’s deterrence playbook shouldn’t be restricted to land targets. The Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, via which a big share of the world’s traded oil and gasoline passes, give Tehran a quick path to shake world markets.
Iran can threaten naval forces and industrial transport utilizing antiship missiles, naval mines, drones and fast-attack craft. It has additionally showcased what it calls “hypersonic” techniques, such because the Fattah sequence, touting very excessive speeds and manoeuvrability, although impartial proof about their operational standing stays restricted.
A proper blockade shouldn’t be crucial to maneuver markets. Radio warnings attributed to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) tankers holding outdoors the strait and rising war-risk insurance coverage are already influencing ship actions and freight prices. The IRGC has additionally mentioned that it has struck three US- and UK-linked oil tankers close to the Strait of Hormuz.
Danish container transport group Maersk mentioned on Sunday that it was suspending all vessel crossings via the Strait of Hormuz.
US forces within the Gulf: Extra firepower, extra targets
Washington has surged naval and air property into the area, constructing what officers describe as one of many largest concentrations of US firepower close to Iran in years. That strengthens strike and air-defence capability, nevertheless it additionally will increase the record of potential targets.
US forces are unfold throughout a number of nations and rely upon a community of bases, logistics hubs and command centres that can’t all be protected to the identical degree, on a regular basis. Army analysts say penetrating defences in a couple of areas may shift political calculations in Washington, elevate strain on regional neighbours, and improve the price of holding the battle contained.
Tehran’s message: No ‘restricted’ struggle
Iranian officers have lengthy warned that any US or Israeli assault on Iranian soil could be handled as the beginning of a wider struggle, not a contained operation. After Khamenei’s killing, that message has hardened.
The IRGC has promised additional retaliation, and Iran has signalled a marketing campaign reasonably than a single dramatic blow: continued launches in direction of Israel, and what Iranian media describe as strikes close to US-linked amenities in multiple nation, alongside threats of motion in and round key commerce routes.
The battle may additionally widen via Iran-aligned teams, similar to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Yemen’s Houthis, each of which have condemned Khamenei’s killing and signalled alignment with Tehran.
