LONDON — President Donald Trump had promised a “main assertion” on Russia on Monday, and it did appear to be a giant shift in his method to the warfare in Ukraine. However vital uncertainty stays amid a scarcity of key particulars.
Sitting within the Oval Workplace with NATO Secretary-Basic Mark Rutte, and apparently fed up with being slow-walked by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump threatened the Kremlin with powerful tariffs if it does not make a deal to finish the warfare inside 50 days.
However maybe extra vital was Trump’s shift on weapons.
After months of seeming to threaten he may minimize off army help to Ukraine solely, on Monday Trump promised “billions” in weapons could be despatched, now that Europe can pay for them.
NATO Secretary-Basic Mark Rutte speaks throughout a gathering with President Donald Trump within the Oval Workplace of the White Home, Monday, July 14, 2025, in Washington.
Evan Vucci/AP
Trump and Rutte introduced that different NATO nations have now agreed to buy U.S. weapons on Ukraine’s behalf. A lot remained unclear in regards to the deal, however Rutte claimed it meant Ukraine will now have the ability to get “huge” quantities of army tools, together with ammunition and missiles. European allies, he and Trump mentioned, would additionally have the ability to now rush tools from their very own depleted shares to Ukraine, understanding it may be backfilled.
If Trump now permits a considerable quantity of U.S. weapons to proceed to movement to Ukraine, that will mark an vital change. Since Trump took workplace, many in Ukraine and European capitals have thought which may properly be the best-case state of affairs for Ukraine, given the U.S. president’s clear hostility to persevering with U.S. donations.
Most of all, it will ship a really completely different message to Putin. For months, Putin has believed, Ukraine’s U.S. army backstop has been dissolving below Trump. That has emboldened Putin to push tougher in army motion towards Ukraine. If this deal reverses that, it might begin to change Putin’s notion.
Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a gathering on social points, in Moscow, Russia July 14, 2025.
Mikhail Metzel/Sputnik by way of Reuters
However the particulars will matter. The Patriot missile protection techniques Trump has licensed to ship are vital, given Russia’s massively elevated air assaults. However an actual take a look at now might be what different weapons will Ukraine obtain. Trump additionally mentioned the U.S. would ship “varied items of very refined army tools.” For now, the Pentagon continues to be understanding what might be despatched, two U.S. officers advised ABC Information on Monday.
However Trump on Monday did look like a lot nearer to U.S. allies’ view of the warfare. In distinction to the Oval Workplace assembly in February the place he berated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, on Monday Trump praised Ukraine as “brave” and spoke of the “superb” “esprit de corps” of European nations in uniting to defend it.
On Putin, Trump once more expressed frustration, at one level coming near repeating former President Joe Biden, who known as Putin “a killer.”
“I do not wish to say he is an murderer, however he is a tricky man. It has been confirmed over time. He is fooled lots of people,” Trump mentioned, itemizing off current former presidents he mentioned Putin had duped.
Trump mentioned Putin “did not idiot me,” however he expressed shock that what he known as his “good” cellphone calls with Putin had turned out to not imply something.
“I at all times hold up say, ‘Nicely, that was a pleasant cellphone name.’ After which missiles launched into Kyiv or another metropolis, and it is unusual. And after that occurs, three or 4 instances, you say the speak doesn’t suggest something,” Trump mentioned. “I am going residence, I inform the primary girl, ‘And I spoke with Vladimir right now. We had a beautiful dialog.’ She mentioned, ‘Oh, actually? One other metropolis was simply hit.'”
President Donald Trump meets with NATO Secretary Basic Mark Rutte, the place President Trump pronounces a deal to ship U.S. weapons to Ukraine via NATO, within the Oval Workplace on the White Home in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 14, 2025.
Nathan Howard/Reuters
The important thing query now could be how severely will Putin take Trump’s new method?
The tariff menace additionally at the moment stays imprecise and a few consultants have expressed doubts it may be successfully imposed. So-called “secondary tariffs” to punish nations that import Russian oil and fuel might have a potent impact however are difficult and, for instance, might require a serious showdown with China.
An apparent query is why did Trump select to present Putin 50 days earlier than imposing 100% tariffs? One potential clarification is that interval is how lengthy Russia’s present summer season offensive is predicted to final. Axios reported recently that Putin himself even advised Trump in a current cellphone name that he supposed to push onerous for the following 60 days.
The Trump administration might hope Putin might be extra inclined to barter as soon as Russia’s offensive exhausts itself, significantly if it goes badly. Intensified sanctions — if they arrive — and tremendously elevated weapons may slowly push Putin in the direction of actual negotiations, if his summer season offensive fails to realize a lot.
However Putin might not consider Trump has the persistence to stay with a tough line.
President Donald Trump speaks throughout a gathering with NATO Secretary Basic Mark Rutte within the Oval Workplace of the White Home in Washington, DC on July 14, 2025.
Andrew Caballero-reynolds/AFP by way of Getty Photographs
Tatiana Stanovaya, a Russia analyst and founding father of R.Politik, wrote on X that many in Russia’s elite seen Trump’s new method as only a non permanent maneuver to check Putin.
“As soon as it turns into evident that such stress is ineffective — anticipated to be quickly — Trump is more likely to revert to a diplomatic course, together with exerting stress on Ukraine to achieve a compromise,” Stanovaya mentioned, summarizing the group’s considering.
Within the brief time period, Putin is more likely to proceed to push as onerous as he can. He believes he is profitable. Solely when he begins considering in any other case may he negotiate.
