Doha, Qatar – The sight of plumes of smoke within the aftermath of Israeli bombings have turn into commonplace throughout the Center East in latest months – however within the skyline of Qatar’s glitzy capital, it was wholly unprecedented.
Israel’s attack on Doha on Tuesday – the sixth nation it has attacked this 12 months – appeared to focus on the Palestinian group Hamas’s negotiating group, who had been speculated on the time to be on the point of closing a ceasefire deal for Gaza.
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Qatar has performed host to truce negotiations all through the almost two-year battle, a number one mediator within the course of – by no means a combatant. Additionally it is a US ally, and the house of the US’s largest army base within the Center East.
Israel ignored red lines to stage its assault within the densely populated space of Qatar’s capital, positioned close to overseas embassies and faculties, which killed five lower-ranked members of Hamas, in addition to a Qatari Inside Safety Pressure officer.
The attack has triggered a cascade of anger all through Qatar’s authorities, which has condemned it as “state terrorism” and a “reckless felony assault”.
“They see this as an act of cowardice and treachery,” Rashid al-Mohanadi, a nonresident fellow on the Center East Council on World Affairs, advised Al Jazeera.
“Israel’s try to assassinate the [Hamas] negotiation group within the nation of the mediator exhibits that the Israelis don’t have any seriousness in terms of reaching a [ceasefire] settlement.”
The assault has not solely known as into query how Qatar would possibly reply, but in addition the way forward for its well-established mediator function, in addition to its defence alliances.
“This assault will probably be one of many necessary historic shocks that may lead Qatar and different GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] states to proceed their pursuit of diversified partnerships and [to] additional pursue strategic autonomy,” Sanam Vakil, the director of the Center East and North Africa Programme at Chatham Home, advised Al Jazeera.
‘Straw that breaks the camel’s again’?
Qatar will seemingly leverage its function as a mediator in response to Israel’s assault, as its choices are restricted, in accordance with Cinzia Bianco, a visiting fellow on the European Council on Overseas Relations.
“Its principal leverage is to tug again from the function it has been taking part in for years … and use that as leverage to say, look, in the event you [do] not respect the neutrality of mediation, then you may not depend on us to mediate for this battle,” Bianco advised Al Jazeera.
Nonetheless, Bianco added, this is able to seemingly solely be helpful in pushing the US to behave, fairly than Israel, which seems to have little curiosity in agreeing to a ceasefire deal.
Qatar might additionally use financial strain towards Israel, mentioned al-Mohanadi.
“All choices are on the desk and financial strain could be imposed on the allies of Israel, specifically Europe and the US,” if they don’t take severe steps to cease Israel, al-Mohanadi mentioned. Qatar has billions of {dollars} price of investments in Europe and the US.
Vakil means that Arab states might use their diplomatic affect to induce Western allies to implement efficient constraints on Israel’s actions.
“Israel has struck seven international locations within the Center East, and hitting Qatar – I believe, [it] may very well be the straw that breaks the camel’s again for Israel,” she mentioned.
Vakil added that the Trump administration would possibly apply extra direct strain on Israel, which is in the end what Arab states, together with Qatar, hope to see to stop additional safety threats.
Moreover, Qatar has the choice of going to the United Nations to diplomatically isolate Israel. An emergency UN Safety Council assembly will happen on Thursday in response to Israel’s assault, following requests from Algeria, Pakistan, and different nations, in accordance with diplomatic sources.
On Wednesday, Doha additionally introduced the creation of a authorized group headed by Qatari diplomat Mohammed bin Abdulaziz al-Khulaifi, “to take all authorized measures towards the treacherous Israeli assault, contemplating it an assault on the state’s sovereignty and a flagrant violation of worldwide legislation, conventions, and norms”.
Regardless of its restricted choices for a response, in al-Mohanadi’s view, Qatar is unlikely to desert its mediator function and can proceed to push for a ceasefire by using multilateral organisations just like the UN Safety Council.
“Qatar won’t ever stop to be the mediator, as a result of mediation is actually in [Qatar’s] structure,” al-Mohanadi mentioned, including that the assault will solely be a “dent” within the function it has assumed in lots of conflicts for the previous decade.
Qatar has served as a mediator in numerous worldwide conflicts, facilitating peace discussions within the Democratic Republic of the Congo, spearheading initiatives to reunite Ukrainian kids displaced by the Russian struggle, and appearing as a vital middleman in Afghan peace and humanitarian negotiations by internet hosting talks with the Taliban.
Eleonora Ardemagni, a senior affiliate analysis fellow on the Italian Institute for Worldwide Political Research (ISPI), agrees that whereas there may be an “extraordinarily slim” window for Gaza ceasefire negotiations in the intervening time, Qatar will proceed to play its mediator function. US-Qatar ties, nevertheless, have been blighted by the assault.
“Qatar is conscious that it could possibly’t turn into the place the place different powers within the area settle accounts – that is about … nationwide safety,” Ardemagni advised Al Jazeera.
“US deterrence is not in a position to assure safety for Qatar, in addition to for the opposite GCC states.”
The strike, subsequently, leaves Qatar in a troublesome place in terms of hosting Hamas’s political leadership, mentioned the analysts.
“I don’t suppose that we’re going to see a direct eviction of Hamas’s management – that would seem to point out weak point or [play] into Israel’s fingers,” mentioned Vakil.
Qatar will fairly search for assurances from the US, provided that “Qatar supported Hamas with the blessing of the USA a few years in the past and with the blessing of Israel,” mentioned Vakil.
Qatari officers have repeatedly acknowledged that the choice to host the Hamas management got here after a request from the US.
In a 2023 opinion piece for The Wall Road Journal, the Qatari ambassador to the US, Sheikh Meshal bin Hamad Al Thani, mentioned that Washington wished the workplace “to ascertain oblique strains of communication with Hamas”.
Whereas the analysts concurred that Hamas management wouldn’t face quick expulsion from Doha, Bianco indicated there’s a “robust likelihood” Qatar will rethink internet hosting the group.
Following worldwide backlash after Hamas’s October 7, 2023, assault on Israel, Doha had already been evaluating this threat, however selected to take care of the connection to assist resolve the Gaza battle, she defined.
“But when the worth to be paid is that … they themselves turn into targets, I believe, [it will] most likely not [be] price it,” mentioned Bianco, noting that any relocation would seemingly be a coordinated, consensual switch of the group to a different location.
Safety diversification and delicate energy blows
Tuesday’s assault will seemingly speed up Qatar’s – and the broader Gulf international locations’ – pursuit of diversified safety preparations, in accordance with al-Mohanadi.
That would imply build up their very own collective defence capabilities or looking for safety partnerships with actors like China, he mentioned.
“What occurred yesterday was not [just a] breach on Qatar, it was a breach on your entire GCC, which was at all times off limits,” mentioned the analyst.
The extent of this diversification will hinge on the US response to the assault, he added.
Nonetheless, as a significant non-NATO ally of the US, Qatar’s defence posture modifications will seemingly emerge regularly fairly than instantly, Vakil identified.
“There should not too many choices for Qatar for it to pivot and transfer some other place … Over the long run, Qatar will look to forge or diversify bilateral and multilateral relationships,” she defined.
The analysts predict Gulf international locations will unite over shared considerations about regional destabilisation.
“With the Iranian assault towards Al Udeid first and now with the Israeli strike on Doha, one thing has modified within the notion that Gulf leaders have in regards to the future,” mentioned Ardemagni, referring to Iran’s attack in June on the Al Udeid airbase in Qatar, the biggest US army base within the Center East.
“There’s a rising sense of Gulf identification and unity vis-a-vis exterior assaults. I see an increase of patriotism and the sense of [a] nationwide unity … amongst Qatari residents and residents.”
Whereas the analysts agree that Qatar’s worldwide investments – from London actual property holdings to possession of European soccer golf equipment – will stay unaffected, Israel’s actions have dealt a blow to Qatar’s home delicate energy ambitions.
“This assault is also an oblique aggression towards [Qatar’s] aspiration to turn into a vacationer hub and to carry extra worldwide occasions,” mentioned al-Mohanadi.
