COMMENT: Marty, I simply needed to write. Whereas everyone seems to be blaming Trump and tariffs for the inventory market crash, not solely did Socrates forecast that months prematurely, however I commerce copper professionally, as you understand. What you’ve created ought to be acknowledged as the reply society has been looking for over the millennium. It projected a January low, a two-month response, and a Panic for April 2025 with a Directional Change. I used to be at your WEC in Orlando and Rome when Nigel Farage mentioned you had been the choice to Davos. What you’ve found goes past any Nobel Prize. Socrates has exceeded all expectations.
No person comes near your forecasting skill. I can’t await Marcus’ movie. It was nice that you just introduced him on stage so we may see a face behind the Forecaster.
DC
REPLY: Thanks. What I found was that we’re all certainly linked globally. As I mentioned, over time, many individuals have come to encourage me, from John Exter and Milton Friedman to Margaret Thatcher. I consider that the world could be a greater place if we simply listened for as soon as. Maggie understood cycles. She said at our WEC maybe authorities ought to look to cycle to function.
As we head into an financial decline worldwide, bottoming in 2028, Copper costs have declined as a consequence of a mix of things influencing provide and demand dynamics. There was Decreased Demand from Key Economies, particularly China, a significant shopper of copper (utilized in development, infrastructure, and manufacturing), as it’s experiencing its personal financial deceleration, resulting in decrease copper demand. World recessions in industrial exercise (e.g., through the COVID-19 pandemic) began the melancholy in demand.
Overproduction has additionally been a problem as enlargement of mining operations or new mines coming on-line (e.g., in Chile, Peru, or the Democratic Republic of Congo) have led to oversupply, outpacing demand. Then there are Excessive Stock Ranges as we’ve got seen an elevated stockpile in exchanges just like the LME and Shanghai Futures Alternate, signalling extra provide, pressuring costs downward.
Then there was additionally the stronger greenback. As copper is priced in {dollars}, a stronger greenback makes it costlier for overseas consumers, lowering demand and decreasing costs. This additionally encourages and will increase overseas manufacturing for the foreign money bonus. There was a gradual shift to options (e.g., aluminum in electrical wiring) or adopting extra environment friendly applied sciences/recycling, lowering copper demand to some extent.
Tariffs and commerce obstacles (e.g., U.S.-China commerce tensions) have additionally disrupted provide chains and dampened demand. Stricter insurance policies, supposed to lift manufacturing prices, may additionally incentivize options and have not directly affected demand.
In abstract, copper’s decline usually displays the interaction between macroeconomic traits, supply-chain changes, foreign money actions, and investor conduct. Particular triggers range by timeframe however usually hinge on China’s financial well being and world industrial demand.
I attempt to present the world there’s something right here. There’s a hidden order inside the look of chaos. When you see the sample and the order, you possibly can by no means see the chaos once more. It’s extra essential than the following commerce. There’s a technique to this, and the way we should always take a look at society as a substitute of making an attempt to govern it. Sure, the array on Copper was excellent. I’m glad it helped your organization and glad you now see the order inside the chaos.
That is the array from our outdated web site again in 1999; I took it from the Wayback Machine. The pc had projected a Panic Cycle in 2008, just about 10 years prematurely. We are able to comply with Marx and Keynes and assume that the federal government has the supreme energy to govern society and create fixed wars and devastation, like this silly local weather change nonsense. No person desires to know how the universe capabilities, which leads humanity down this path of steady disasters.
Even Paul Volcker inspired me and agreed there was a enterprise cycle of about 8 years. I can scream from the rooftops, however they won’t hear. As they are saying, you’ll by no means be acknowledged throughout your lifetime as a result of you’ll at all times be a risk to the established order. I believe that wisestale might be true.
