Seoul, South Korea – South Korean President Lee Jae-myung is about to fulfill United States President Donald Trump for the primary time in a high-stakes go to to his nation’s closest and most necessary ally.
After a one-day assembly with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in Tokyo, Lee arrived in Washington, DC, on Sunday forward of an official working-level assembly on the White Home with Trump.
Will probably be the primary time the 2 heads of state meet.
Their summit follows a commerce deal in July during which Washington agreed to chop its reciprocal tariff on South Korea to fifteen % from an initially proposed 25 %.
The assembly is essential for South Korea, whose engagement with the Trump administration was disrupted by home political turmoil, ignited by the temporary declaration of martial regulation introduced in December by the nation’s impeached former president, Yoon Suk-yeol.
Dialogue will concentrate on ironing out particulars of the unwritten July commerce deal, which includes South Korea agreeing to purchase $100bn in US vitality and make investments $350bn within the US financial system.
On prime of these dizzying sums are direct investments within the US, that are anticipated from South Korean corporations, and which Trump has talked about will likely be determined throughout their talks.
Accompanied by first girl Kim Hea-kyung, Lee will lead a delegation fashioned by the heads of South Korean prime conglomerates, together with Samsung Electronics, SK Group, Hyundai Motor and LG Group.
The 4 corporations alone are already identified to contribute roughly 126 trillion received ($91.2bn) in direct investments to the US, based on the South Korean each day Maeil Enterprise Newspaper.
Choi Yoon-jung, a principal analysis fellow on the Sejong Institute in Seoul, mentioned Lee must be deliberate and direct with Trump within the talks, as “South Korea is in a tricky predicament when it comes to commerce with the US in comparison with the previous”.
“Will probably be necessary for President Lee to elucidate how investments will likely be designed to serve US nationwide pursuits and to remind Trump that the 2 nations are shut buying and selling companions who went by way of giant ordeals to understand their Free Commerce Settlement over 20 years in the past,” Choi instructed Al Jazeera.
Mason Richey, a professor of worldwide politics on the Hankuk College of International Research (HUFS), mentioned the route of the talks on investments is prone to be “unpredictable”.
“Not solely are the present 15 % tariffs overwhelmingly prone to keep on, however the funding a part of the deal is prone to stay unclear and topic to unpredictable adjustment by the White Home,” Richey instructed Al Jazeera.
Analysts say shipbuilding is one space the place Trump clearly wishes to have South Korea as a key accomplice to play catch-up to China’s naval fleet, which leads when it comes to sheer numbers and can be making technological developments.
Officers in Seoul have beforehand said {that a} key element of the tariff take care of Washington would come with a partnership price about $150bn to help in rebuilding the US shipbuilding business.
To that finish, after visiting the White Home, Lee will head to Philadelphia to go to the Philly Shipyard, which was purchased by the South Korean firm Hanwha Group final yr.
Analysts additionally say that battery manufacturing and semiconductors are another sectors the place Trump has set clear aims to extend US capability, and the place South Korea has proven willingness and curiosity in being that accomplice.
“The South Korean authorities can be prepared to actively take part within the ‘modernisation’ of its alliance with the US, that might embody rising contributions to upholding the area’s safety and growth,” mentioned the Sejong Institute’s Choi.
One other main dialogue level will likely be Seoul and Washington’s defence posture relating to the rising threats from North Korea, in addition to the event of a strategic alliance to handle the altering worldwide safety and financial atmosphere.
“The pressures for the position of US forces on the Korean Peninsula to evolve has been rising for years,” Jenny City, the director of the Washington, DC-based analysis programme 38 North, instructed Al Jazeera.
This evolution was particularly so with nice energy competitors rising from China, City mentioned.
“The Trump administration is targeted on how one can maximise sources for US pursuits and priorities, so it’s doubtless that some adjustments will likely be made throughout this time period,” City mentioned.
“How drastic or dramatic these adjustments will rely upon plenty of components, together with the state of the US home political infrastructure that gives checks and balances to government selections,” she mentioned.
A US Senate defence coverage invoice for fiscal yr 2026 features a ban on using funds to scale back the variety of US Forces Korea (USFK) troops to under the present stage of 28,500 service members.
“This makes it unlikely that there will likely be a direct change in troop deployment numbers in South Korea,” Choi mentioned.
“So, the large level of rivalry would be the job project of the troops to match US pursuits. I feel there’s a chance of Trump asking South Korea to tackle an even bigger position in regional safety, similar to collaborating within the battle involving Taiwan.”
Monetary negotiations between Trump and Lee may additionally tip into safety particulars, because the US president has usually known as for South Korea to pay extra for the US troops stationed on its soil.
Trump has made that very same name since his first presidential time period.
Along with offering greater than $1bn for the presence of USFK forces, South Korea additionally paid your entire value of constructing Camp Humphreys, the biggest US base abroad, located 64km (39 miles) south of Seoul.
Trump has mentioned that he desires defence spending to succeed in nearer to five % of gross home product (GDP) for all US allies.
At this time, South Korea’s defence funds is at 3.5 % of GDP.
Switch of wartime operational command – referring to the switch of management of South Korean forces throughout wartime from the US to South Korea – has lengthy been some extent of dialogue between Seoul and Washington.
Underneath the Lee administration’s five-year governance plan, Seoul hopes to have the transition occur by 2030.
The Trump-Lee assembly additionally comes after North Korean chief Kim Jong Un’s highly effective sister lately dismissed Washington and Seoul’s said wishes to restart diplomacy aimed toward defusing Pyongyang’s nuclear programme.
Kim Yo Jong mentioned that Seoul might by no means be a “diplomatic accomplice” with Pyongyang.
For City, there have been “attention-grabbing nuances” in Kim Yo Jong’s statements.
“Whereas rejecting any type of denuclearisation narrative as the premise of negotiations, her statements did create a gap for the US to have interaction North Korea to enhance total relations,” City mentioned.
“Kim prompt that there’s a purpose for 2 international locations with nuclear weapons to keep away from confrontational relations. This begs the query of whether or not the US is definitely curious about constructing a distinct relationship with North Korea that isn’t hinged on denuclearisation, and the way US allies would see such an agenda,” City mentioned.
For Richey, the HUFS professor, the opportunity of “Trump bypassing Lee in diplomacy with North Korea” poses a critical threat for South Korea down the street, when it comes to affect and safety.
In distinction to at this time’s lack of contact between Washington and Pyongyang, Trump’s first presidential time period featured a suspension of US navy workout routines with South Korea and three separate conferences between the US president and North Korea’s Kim.
His need to earn a Nobel Peace Prize might additionally supply one other set of motivations for Trump to increase a US hand of friendship to Kim.
The South Korean president’s White Home go to additionally coincides with annual, large-scale South Korean and US joint navy workout routines, which run for 11 days.
Throughout a go to to North Korea’s most superior warship final week, Kim denounced the drills as rehearsals for an invasion of North Korea and “an apparent expression of their will to impress conflict”.
Additionally, final week, Past Parallel, a venture of the Washington-based Heart for Strategic and Worldwide Research, unveiled an undocumented North Korean missile base about 25km (15.5 miles) from the border with China, which doubtless has intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) able to reaching the US.
City added that Russia might additionally play a cameo position on this summit.
“Lee could carry up the difficulty of how Russia’s relations with North Korea, particularly their navy cooperation, poses potential risks to the alliance’s safety pursuits,” she mentioned.
“Talks might wind as much as consideration of whether or not Trump’s relationship with [Russian President Vladimir] Putin could assist mitigate the state of affairs,” she mentioned.
North Korea’s latest dealings with Russia provides one other dimension to those inter-country relationships, as reciprocal exchanges of navy troops for the receipt of meals, vitality, money, weapons and know-how have created a secure strategic bond between Moscow and Pyongyang.
Moreover, North Korea has proven an curiosity in strengthening ties with one other of the US’s greatest rivals – China.
“In the end, I consider Trump will proceed to make overtures towards North Korea,” Choi mentioned.
“He could appear to be pushing an isolationist technique, however the matter of reality is that the US continues to be in the course of negotiations and talks at any time when a giant battle arises on this planet,” she mentioned.
