Should Europe wean itself off US tech?

Think about if US President Donald Trump might flip a change and switch off Europe’s web.

It could sound far-fetched, loopy even. But it surely’s a state of affairs that has been significantly mentioned in tech trade and coverage circles in latest months, as tensions with Washington have escalated, and considerations concerning the EU’s reliance on American know-how have come to the fore.

On the root of those considerations is the actual fact simply three US giants – Google, Microsoft and Amazon – provide 70% of Europe’s cloud-computing infrastructure, the scaffolding on which many on-line companies rely.

And a few query whether or not an unpredictable US chief would weaponize the state of affairs if relations significantly deteriorated – for instance, by ordering these firms to show off their companies in Europe.

“Essential knowledge would turn into inaccessible, web sites would go darkish, and important state companies like hospital IT techniques can be thrown into chaos,” says Robin Berjon, a digital governance specialist who advises EU policymakers.

He believes that considerations over a so referred to as US “kill change” must be taken significantly. “It is onerous to say how a lot hassle we’d be in.”

Microsoft, Google and Amazon all say they provide “sovereign” cloud computing options that safeguard EU shoppers’ knowledge, and would forestall such a state of affairs ever occurring. The BBC has contacted the US Treasury division for remark.

In fact, there have all the time been considerations concerning the lack of “digital sovereignty” in Europe, the place US companies not solely dominate the cloud-computing market, but additionally {hardware}, satellite tv for pc web and now synthetic intelligence.

Even the area’s primary cell working techniques – Apple and Android – and fee networks – Mastercard and Visa – are American.

These fears turned pressing in Could when it emerged that Karim Khan, the highest prosecutor on the Netherlands-based Worldwide Prison Courtroom (ICC), had misplaced entry to his Microsoft Outlook electronic mail account after being sanctioned by the White Home.

The ICC has issued arrest warrants for high Israeli officers, together with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, over their roles within the Israel-Gaza battle – one thing Mr Trump referred to as “illegitimate”.

Khan has since quickly stepped apart till a sexual misconduct probe in opposition to him is concluded.

Microsoft says that “at no level” did it stop or droop its companies to the ICC, though it was in contact with the ICC “throughout the process that resulted in the disconnection”.

Since then digital sovereignty has shot up the agenda in Brussels, whereas some public our bodies are already in search of options to US suppliers.

However is it lifelike to assume they may wean themselves off US know-how?

Digital sovereignty is loosely outlined as the power of a governing physique to regulate the info and know-how techniques inside its borders.

One downside confronted by these pursuing it’s the lack of comparable options.

Europe does have its personal suppliers, akin to France’s OVHCloud, or Germany’s Germany’s T-Programs or Delos, in cloud computing.

However they account for a fraction of the market, and do not have the identical scale or vary of capabilities, says Dario Maisto, a senior analyst masking digital sovereignty at world enterprise consultancy Forrester.

Equally, open-source options can be found for widespread software program packages like Workplace and Home windows, however whereas proponents say they’re extra clear and accessible, none is as complete or well-known.

However whereas transferring to sovereign options would not “occur in a single day”, it is a “fable” to assume it isn’t potential, says Mr Maisto.

He notes that the German state of Schleswig-Holstein is presently within the means of phasing out Microsoft merchandise like Workplace 365 and Home windows in favour of open-source options akin to LibreOffice and Linux. Denmark’s Ministry for Digitalisation is piloting an analogous scheme.

“We typically overvalue the function of proprietary software program in our organisations,” Mr Maisto says, stating that for key companies like phrase processing and electronic mail, open-source options work simply positive.

“The primary causes organisations do not use open supply are a ignorance and misplaced fears about cyber safety,” he provides.

“Our prediction is within the subsequent 5 to 10 years, there can be an accelerated shift [to these solutions] due to this wake-up name.”

Benjamin Revcolevschi, boss of OVHCloud, tells the BBC that companies like his are able to reply the sovereignty wants of private and non-private organisations in Europe.

“Solely European cloud suppliers, whose headquarters are within the EU and with European governance, are in a position to supply immunity to non-European legal guidelines, to guard delicate and private knowledge,” he says.

However Microsoft, Amazon and Google say they already supply options that tackle considerations about digital sovereignty, options which retailer knowledge on severs within the shoppers’ nation or area, not within the US.

Google tells the BBC that it additionally companions with trusted native EU suppliers like T-Programs, granting them management over the encryption of consumer knowledge, and giving clients “a technical veto over their knowledge”. The German Military is one in all its shoppers.

In the meantime, Microsoft president Brad Smith has promised the agency would take authorized motion within the “exceedingly unlikely” occasion the US authorities ordered it to droop companies, and that it might embrace a clause in European contracts to that impact.

“We are going to proceed to search for new methods to make sure the European Fee and our European clients have the choices and assurances they should function with confidence,” a Microsoft spokesman informed the BBC.

Zach Meyers, from the Brussels-based Centre on Regulation in Europe (CERRE) assume tank, says it’d make sense for Europe to develop its personal restricted sovereign cloud to guard vital authorities knowledge.

However he provides that it is unrealistic to attempt to “get Individuals out of the availability chain, or to make sure that there’s Europeans within the provide chain at every level”.

He factors to Gaia X – a scheme launched in 2020 to create a European-based various to giant, centralised cloud platforms, which has confronted important criticism and delays.

“Plenty of these [tech] markets are winner takes all, so when you’re the primary mover it is actually onerous for anybody else to catch up.”

As an alternative, Mr Meyers thinks Europe ought to concentrate on areas of know-how the place it’d acquire an edge.

“It could possibly be the economic use of AI, as a result of Europe already has a a lot greater, stronger industrial base than the US has,” he says. “Or the following era of chipmaking gear, as a result of one of many few areas the place Europe has foothold is in photolithography – the machines that make the actually top-end chips.”

So the place does the digital sovereignty agenda go from right here?

Some imagine nothing will change until Europe brings in new rules that pressure regional organisations and governments to purchase native know-how. However in response to Mr Berjon, the EU has been dragging its ft.

“There may be positively political curiosity, but it surely’s a query of turning it right into a shared technique.”

Matthias Bauer, director on the European Centre for Worldwide Political Economic system, thinks the aim must be increase Europe’s know-how sector so it might probably compete with the US and China.

In a report on EU competitiveness in 2024, Mario Draghi, former head of the European Central Financial institution, famous Europe is “severely lagging behind” in new applied sciences, and that “solely 4 of the world’s high 50 tech firms are European”.

“It is presently a lot tougher for a tech firm based mostly within the EU to scale throughout the bloc than it might be for a similar firm within the US,” Mr Bauer says.

“You not solely face totally different languages, however totally different contract regulation, labour market legal guidelines, tax legal guidelines, and in addition totally different sector-specific regulation.”

As for the idea that President Trump would possibly flip a “kill change” and switch off Europe’s web, he is extremely sceptical.

“It might be a sensible state of affairs if we had been near a battle, however I do not see that on the horizon.”

But Mr Maisto says organisations should take the chance significantly, nonetheless distant.

“Two years in the past, we did not assume we’d be speaking about these matters in these phrases in 2025. Now organisations wish to prepare for what would possibly occur.”