Deir Az Zor, Syria – On the broad, windswept plains by way of which the Euphrates River snakes, the land remembers each warfare that has handed throughout it. The oil-rich soil of al-Omar, the generators of the Tabqa Dam and the cautious return of households to cities lengthy deserted inform a narrative as previous as Syria itself: one in every of energy, survival and the battle to unify a fractured nation.
Over the weekend, Syrian authorities forces seized the al-Omar oilfield, the Conoco fuel complicated – each in Deir Az Zor governorate – and the Tabqa Dam, in Raqqa governorate. The operation was heralded as a navy achievement, however its significance reaches far past maps and navy strains. It touches the very construction of Syria’s political economic system, the social contract between state and citizen and the delicate structure of agreements meant to reconcile previously hostile actors.
And the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which beforehand managed the areas in addition to all of northeastern Syria, quickly realised the state of affairs they confronted. By Sunday night, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa announced {that a} deal had been reached with the SDF.
“State establishments will enter the three jap and northeastern governorates – Hasakah, Deir Az Zor and Raqqa,” al-Sharaa mentioned.
Heartland scarred by warfare
In jap Syria, hydrocarbons have lengthy been each a lifeblood and a driver of financial leverage.
Earlier than the start of the battle in 2011, oil and fuel accounted for almost 20 p.c of Syria’s gross home product (GDP). In the course of the warfare, these fields grew to become the spine of the fragmented warfare economic system, exploited by armed teams and redirected to assist native militias. Reclaiming these fields is due to this fact greater than symbolic – it’s a prerequisite for fiscal restoration.
Labib al-Nahhas, director of the Syrian Affiliation for Residents’ Dignity, mentioned the speedy territorial losses suffered by the SDF echo the autumn of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024.
“SDF are collapsing in an analogous strategy to [the] regime in Damascus,” he mentioned, arguing that al-Omar, Tabqa and Tishreen are pivotal for financial restoration, not solely when it comes to recovering assets equivalent to oil and fuel, however “as a result of they may have a big impact on costs and residing circumstances”.
Radwan Ziadeh, senior fellow on the Arab Heart Washington DC (ACW), mentioned controlling pure assets alone was not sufficient to assist Syria transfer ahead, however that it was a step in the best course.
“It’s nonetheless very early to say that there are tangible advantages from this advance,” he mentioned.
“Oil- and gasfields require important worldwide funding to unlock their full potential. On their very own, they can’t ship restoration. [But] extra importantly, it is a important step in direction of unifying Syria. That is the primary time the nation has been unified underneath one authorities since 2013. Earlier than that, Syria was divided between Free Syrian Military factions, the al-Assad authorities, and later ISIL [ISIS], which fragmented the nation even additional.”
March settlement
In March 2025, Mazloum Abdi, the commander of the SDF who’s also called Mazloum Kobani, and al-Sharaa signed a framework settlement aimed toward integrating the group into state constructions whereas defending native governance and Kurdish rights.
On the time, Abdi referred to as it “an actual alternative to construct a brand new Syria that embraces all its parts”. He emphasised that “there will likely be no armies exterior the state”, reflecting each acceptance of a unified navy construction and protracted concern for Kurdish autonomy.
Al-Sharaa, in the meantime, offered the pact as an affirmation of state sovereignty first, rights second – some extent that may show decisive within the months forward.
In November, al-Sharaa met United States President Donald Trump on the White Home, and Syria grew to become a accomplice within the warfare towards ISIL. That basically took the air from the SDF’s argument that it was the one US ally preventing towards the armed group. The settlement additionally supplied al-Sharaa’s forces with the chance to consolidate their offers with Arab fighters who needed to modify sides – from the SDF to Damascus. And the Syrian president supplied an olive department to war-weary Kurdish civilians, lots of whom additionally need an finish to hostilities.
Nonetheless, by late 2025, implementation of the government-SDF settlement lagged. Territorial and administrative disagreements grew, and the Syrian military superior into SDF-controlled territory.
Tribes’ decisive position
Whereas international coverage set the backdrop, native tribal dynamics have proved decisive in reshaping management. Over the previous yr, Damascus has invested closely in courting Arab clans in Deir Az Zor and Raqqa who had grown disaffected with the SDF’s Kurdish-led administration. The tribes have been additionally rising more and more pissed off with the shortage of implementation of the March settlement.
Individuals at a January 17 assembly of tribal elders from Syria’s east reviewed the implications of failing to implement the settlement’s provisions on time, together with the potential political and safety impacts on the area.
A number of tribal sheikhs on the assembly emphasised the significance of stopping escalation, the need of adhering to agreements to attain stability, and referred to as on the SDF to implement the March deal. The tribes had made clear their dissatisfaction with the SDF, and as soon as the chance offered itself, they moved to push the SDF out of their communities.
A supply from the Syrian Tribal Forces, a coalition of Syrian Arab tribes, informed Al Jazeera on Sunday: “Areas south of Hasakah, from Sur to al-Shaddadi, are freed from SDF forces.”
The skin affect
The unravelling of the March deal was additionally accelerated by altering regional dynamics. The US – a longstanding, main navy accomplice – narrowed its position to counter-ISIL operations, leaving the Kurdish-led forces with out the exterior navy assist that they had relied on. With out US enforcement, Damascus has had room to claim authority east of the Euphrates River, the spine of the SDF’s territory.
Turkiye, for its half, has all the time remained cautious of any SDF autonomy. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been fast to again al-Sharaa’s strikes towards the SDF and welcomed the information of Sunday’s deal.
The territory was taken from the SDF not simply by drive, however with the tacit consent of worldwide and regional allies and communities weary of warfare, who felt disenfranchised on account of Arab-Kurdish divisions.
Power, water as levers of state authority
Management of the al-Omar oilfield, the Conoco fuel complicated and the Tabqa Dam isn’t just symbolic.
Tabqa Dam, the nation’s largest hydroelectric facility, now governs energy and irrigation throughout a lot of northern and jap Syria. Electrical energy on this area is actually life-sustaining, powering hospitals, faculties and industrial exercise.
But the complete potential of those property stays unrealised. Reconstruction and worldwide funding are essential to convert regained infrastructure into long-term state capability.
In the meantime, the SDF’s lack of management over resource-rich areas reduces their monetary independence and constrains governance in previously autonomous zones. As ACW’s Ziadeh famous, this second is much less about quick financial acquire than the consolidation of state authority and territorial unification.
The SDF, it appears, must retreat from most Arab majority areas in direction of Hasakah governorate. That’s the place the historic roots of Syria’s Kurdish minority stay and supply the drive with manpower, political backing and financial viability.
Human and social modifications
The Syrian authorities’s advance eastwards is reshaping communities. Hundreds have been displaced from Aleppo, Raqqa and Tabqa.
Kurdish populations face the strain between assured citizenship as promised by al-Sharaa in a presidential decree issued on January 16, and the erosion of the SDF’s political autonomy.
Arab tribes, in the meantime, are recalibrating alliances, balancing native pursuits with new state authority.
Principal tribes, together with al-Ukaidat, al-Bakara, al-Jabour, Anza, Shammar, Bani Khalid, al-Bu Shaaban, al-Buhamad and al-Baggara, basically run the governorates of Deir Az Zor, Raqqa and Hasakah in northeastern Syria. Their loyalties are sometimes transactional, relying on who runs that area. Al-Sharaa’s forces appear to have the higher hand now.
The social contract – fragile earlier than the warfare – is being renegotiated in actual time, amid each materials deprivation and political guarantees.
To maintain new allies completely happy and forestall defections, Damascus must care – and be seen to care, as properly. The chance of extra individuals tilting to the federal government’s aspect will rely on what sort of enhancements they see when it comes to safety, inclusion and the economic system.
Al-Nahhas expects the impression on residing circumstances can be “huge” however not quick, stressing that expectation administration is important as a result of restoration will take time. Central management and stability, he added, might incentivise international funding in oil, fuel and electrical energy, supplied corruption is minimised and governance improves.
He mentioned after regaining very important power websites, electrical energy prices and availability might additionally enhance, however warned that outcomes rely on administration – how shortly authorities could make amenities operational, on condition that infrastructure is just not optimum, how successfully management is asserted, and the way transparently property are managed.
No oil windfalls quickly
Mohamad Ahmad, economist and power specialist at Karam Shaar Advisory Restricted, mentioned whereas the al-Omar area was “technically possible for funding”, manufacturing had collapsed to about 14,200 barrels per day and reservoirs have been pressured.
“The federal government’s latest takeover in late 2025 reclaims a critically impaired asset; its rehabilitation faces immense technical and monetary hurdles, underscoring the long-term financial value of the warfare,” he mentioned.
Ahmad added that the seize of the oilfield highlights the depth of harm inflicted over time of battle.
“As Syria’s flagship oilfield, al-Omar’s trajectory from a high-potential asset to a war-torn image is each tragic and indicative of the battle’s devastation,” he mentioned.
“We’re taking a look at a area that when produced almost 90,000 barrels per day, with unique reserves of 760 million barrels of high-quality mild crude. Nonetheless, over a decade of battle, which included its use as a monetary engine for ISIS and subsequent focused air strikes, has inflicted catastrophic injury – properly over $800m – to its core infrastructure.”
Unification nonetheless fragile
In Deir Az Zor, Raqqa and Aleppo, power infrastructure hums inconsistently. Throughout the northeast, Syrians dwell between the promise of a unified authorities and the warning of many years of uncertainty – their future tethered to the intersection of power, politics, and human resilience.
But financial realities, lingering mistrust and complicated international involvement imply that unification is precarious.
However for the primary time since 2013, Syria is basically unified underneath a single authorities. Ziadeh added that the inclusion of Kurdish rights and social freedoms elevates this past a navy or territorial achievement, “with the announcement to incorporate Kurdish rights and social freedoms inside the Syrian state framework, that is the primary time we’re seeing a unifying authorities in Syria. That’s an important takeaway from this speedy advance.”
The Syrian authorities’s battlefield advances reveal the return of central authority, the partial reintegration of Kurdish and Arab actors, and the resumption of management over key financial lifelines. Tribal councils have praised inclusive decrees; Abdi continues to navigate a shifting political panorama; and al-Sharaa asserts sovereignty with inclusion.
However the restoration of Syria’s northeast is just not merely about navy positive aspects or authorized decrees. It’s about rebuilding belief, sustaining native assist, and thoroughly managing the fragile stability between unity and autonomy. The oil, the dam, the fuel, and the legal guidelines are all symbols of what’s attainable – but additionally reminders of how tenuous state energy stays in a land lengthy fractured by warfare.
In Syria, the Euphrates is each witness and arbiter – it stays to be seen whether or not its jap and western banks might work collectively for a united Syria after greater than 5 many years of being dominated by the al-Assad household.
