New Delhi, India – In a sprawling market within the Indian capital, Anuj Gupta sits in a nook of his store as silence hangs over it.
Gupta sources and exports garment equipment – like laces and buttons – to main world manufacturers. However punishing tariffs imposed by United States President Donald Trump have introduced Gupta’s enterprise to its knees.
On Wednesday morning, India woke as much as 50 % tariffs imposed on its items offered to the US, after the Trump administration adopted via on its risk of doubling levies from 25 % over India’s buy of Russian oil. The White Home says Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s authorities, among the many prime consumers of crude from Russia, is financing Moscow’s struggle in Ukraine. Indian officers have accused Washington of double requirements, pointing in the direction of how the European Union and China purchase extra from Russia and the way Washington, too, nonetheless trades with Moscow.
Within the trend world, the cycle runs a yr forward, explains Gupta – garments are being designed and made for autumn 2026 in the intervening time. So, the hovering uncertainty out there has “hampered the work badly”, leaving a “huge dent”, he mentioned. As much as 40 % of his enterprise is within the US market.
Gupta mentioned till Wednesday morning, he was nonetheless hoping towards hope. “Possibly Trump is simply bullying us for optics, or possibly Modi’s good relations with the US will rescue the state of affairs,” he thought. “However we have been the worst dealt.”
5 rounds of talks have did not yield a commerce deal between Washington and New Delhi, and Gupta mentioned exporters now concern their clients would possibly surrender on India altogether. “If these tensions delay, then consumers would search for different markets for sourcing,” he mentioned.
As New Delhi grapples with Trump’s strikes that stroll the US again from twenty years of diplomatic and strategic investments in India, analysts and financial observers say the tariffs may devastate key export-driven sectors of the Indian financial system, with a whole bunch of hundreds of jobs in danger.
‘It’s so helpless’
Ajay Sahai, the CEO of the Federation of Indian Export Organisation (FIEO), the biggest government-backed physique of Indian exporters, was cautiously hopeful of assist from the Modi administration after assembly the nation’s finance minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, on Thursday.
“The federal government has totally assured us that they may present all types of assist wanted to navigate this downside, maybe together with an financial bundle,” Sahai informed Al Jazeera.
“The federal government has requested us to organize a report, after which they may provide you with a scheme,” he mentioned. “[Sitharaman] has assured that there might be no layoffs – and that’s one thing we should always honour.”
But, that’s simpler mentioned than accomplished.
Textiles, gems, jewelry, carpets and shrimp are a few of India’s greatest exports to the US – and are anticipated to be among the many worst hit by the tariffs.
Okay Anand Kumar, who manages shrimp exporting firm Sandhya Marines and employs practically 3,500 staff in a coastal city in Andhra Pradesh state on the Bay of Bengal, mentioned that his enterprise is on the snapping point.
Greater than 90 % of his firm’s cargoes head to the US market.
Final yr, India exported an all-time excessive of 1.78 million metric tonnes of seafood value $7.38bn. Shrimp dominates, contributing 92 % of the entire worth. And the US takes in additional than 40 % of India’s shrimp shipments.
“The shrimp trade is a really extremely labour-intensive sector, with small farmers,” mentioned Kumar, who additionally leads the seafood export affiliation’s Andhra Pradesh chapter. Taking everybody into consideration, Kumar mentioned, practically two million individuals are related to shrimp exports.
Kumar mentioned greater than 50 % of these staff will bear the direct brunt of Trump’s tariffs.
“We’re already shedding as a result of we are able to’t hold paying salaries with no orders in line for us,” Kumar informed Al Jazeera. “The small farmers, who peel the shrimp, might be worst affected as a result of there isn’t a work now to make use of them.”
Exporter associations estimate that the tariffs may have an effect on practically 55 % of India’s $87bn value of merchandise exports to the US – and profit rivals reminiscent of Vietnam, Bangladesh and China, which have been tariffed at decrease charges.
Moody’s Scores has famous that Trump’s tariffs on Indian imports may gradual India’s financial progress. Past 2025, the scores company mentioned, the a lot wider tariff hole in contrast with different Asia Pacific international locations would severely curtail India’s ambitions to develop its manufacturing sector and should even reverse a few of the positive aspects made in recent times in attracting associated investments.
“It’s like being in a nightmare,” Kumar mentioned, “the place you have no idea what new, random tariff quantity you get up to subsequent.”
Within the final 30 years of enterprise with the US, Kumar mentioned, the disaster feels uncharted. “The US is toying with us, doing no matter they need,” he mentioned. “And we’re compelled to regulate. It feels so helpless.”
‘Embargo on Indian items’
Almost 1,000km (620 miles) from Kumar’s manufacturing facility, concern has taken over Tiruppur, a city within the southern state of Tamil Nadu that’s the capital of India’s garment export trade.
Mendacity on the banks of the Noyyal river and subsequent to rocky hillocks, Tiruppur contributes practically a 3rd of the entire $16bn ready-to-wear garment exports. Tiruppur’s earnings in US {dollars} have earned it the identify of ‘Greenback Metropolis’. The world’s prime trend manufacturers, together with Zara and Hole, supply garments from right here.
However whereas increased margins within the case of huge manufacturers give some companies momentary respiration house, a protracted disaster may cripple them, mentioned V Elangovan, managing director of SNQS Worldwide Group, which exports clothes.
“Wherever margins are decrease, the manufacturing has been halted altogether,” he mentioned. Elangovan’s firm employs 1,500 folks. He mentioned about 150,000 staff stand to lose their jobs resulting from Trump’s tariffs in Tiruppur.
“It is extremely tough to discover a new buyer on this financial system,” he mentioned. “Buyer diversification isn’t like a change, which we are able to activate and off. Quickly, sooner or later, we might be money move points, and there might be quite a lot of retrenchment of the employees.”
India’s Modi has in the meantime taken a defiant stance on the commerce struggle with the US.
India “ought to develop into self-reliant … Financial selfishness is on the rise globally and we mustn’t sit and cry about our difficulties,” Modi mentioned in his Independence Day speech on August 15 from the ramparts of New Delhi’s Crimson Fort.
“Modi will stand like a wall towards any coverage that threatens their pursuits. India won’t ever compromise in the case of defending the pursuits of our farmers,” the prime minister had mentioned, referring not directly to sticking factors in commerce negotiations with the US, which needs larger market entry to India’s agriculture and dairy sectors. Nearly half of India’s 1.4 billion folks rely upon agriculture for his or her livelihood.
However merchants concern that they may very well be left bleeding within the discount.
“The federal government is letting us get punched in a single eye to save lots of the opposite eye,” mentioned Elangovan. “A 50 % tariff is virtually an embargo on Indian items.”
