United States President Donald Trump’s tariffs announcement on most buying and selling companions, together with a number of in Africa, will have an effect on companies and other people throughout the continent and certain drive extra producers to commerce with China, specialists have warned.
Trump’s “Liberation Day” declaration on Wednesday threw markets into chaos, because the US took its strongest flip to protectionist insurance policies because the Nineteen Thirties, weakening a world commerce system the US helped construct and strengthen.
The tariffs, which embody a baseline, common 10 p.c obligation on all US imports in addition to further tariffs on “worst offender” international locations like Nigeria and South Africa, can even doubtless override a decades-long open commerce settlement that has seen African producers export items to the US duty-free and that has been credited for creating tens of hundreds of jobs, analysts say.
Established in 2000, the African Development and Alternative Act (AGOA) framework helped develop the continent’s exports of textiles, metal, and agricultural merchandise, amongst others, to the US.
The AGOA was set for a second renewal this yr, however is now more likely to be jeopardised by Trump’s commerce struggle, in accordance with analysts.
Right here’s what to find out about how African international locations have been hit and what the doubtless results might be:
Which African international locations have been hit and by how a lot?
Africa’s largest economies, Nigeria (14 p.c) and South Africa (31 p.c), have been amongst these on Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs checklist — that’s, international locations the president stated “deal with us badly”.
They included people who impose excessive tariffs on US items or have launched different boundaries to US commerce, in accordance with Washington. These tariffs will take impact on April 9, whereas the common tariffs start on April 5.
Southern African international locations have been significantly badly hit. Lesotho, the small Southern African nation that Trump claimed “ nobody has heard of” final month, was hit with the highest tariff rates at 50 p.c. The nation, which carries the second-highest HIV burden of every other on the planet, remains to be reeling from the shock of Trump’s sweeping assist cuts earlier which have gutted HIV response efforts throughout the area.
Different Southern African international locations hit have been: Madagascar (47 p.c); Mauritius (40 p.c); Botswana (37 p.c); and Angola (32 p.c).
South Africa was additionally earlier affected by a separate 25-percent tariff on all foreign-made vehicles that went into drive this week. South Africa exports automobiles and elements value $2bn to the US beneath the AGOA framework, in accordance with the nation’s Ministry of Commerce, Business and Competitors.
Listed below are the tariffs in extra of 10 p.c imposed on different African international locations:
- Algeria – 30 p.c
- Cameroon – 12 p.c
- Chad -13 p.c
- Democratic Republic of the Congo – 11 p.c
- Equatorial Guinea – 13 p.c
- Ivory Coast – 21 p.c
- Libya – 31 p.c
- Malawi – 18 p.c
- Mozambique – 16 p.c
- Namibia – 21 p.c
- Tunisia – 28 p.c
- Zambia – 17 p.c
- Zimbabwe – 18 p.c
What have African governments stated?
South Africa’s authorities, which has been concerned in a collection of spats with Washington in latest weeks, was the primary to answer the tariff hikes.
In an announcement on Thursday, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s workplace known as the tariffs on the nation “punitive” and added that they might “function a barrier to commerce and shared prosperity.” The federal government additionally pledged to hunt redress with Washington.
The Presidency has famous with concern the newly imposed tariffs on South African exports to the US of America (USA). https://t.co/Y3YgJd7ECP
— The Presidency 🇿🇦 (@PresidencyZA) April 3, 2025
“The tariffs affirm the urgency to barter a brand new bilateral and mutually useful commerce settlement with the US, as a necessary step to safe long-term commerce certainty,” the assertion learn.
In response to the US authorities, South Africa prices a 60 p.c tariff on US items, whereas Lesotho prices 99 p.c. Madagascar, the White Home claimed, levies 93 p.c tariffs on US items, and Mauritius, 80 p.c.
Trump and his shut ally, Elon Musk, who was born in South Africa, have criticised South Africa for land reform insurance policies that they declare discriminate in opposition to the nation’s white minority inhabitants. Trump has additionally provided citizenship to white South Africans. On Wednesday, throughout his announcement, Trump stated, “Unhealthy issues are happening there.”
How will tariffs affect AGOA?
Specialists say the tariffs will most importantly affect African economies which are reliant on US commerce, and that they may successfully override AGOA privileges. At present, 32 African international locations are eligible for the programme. Nations might be, and have been, taken off the checklist – reminiscent of Niger and Gabon, which misplaced their advantages after navy coups.
The AGOA, which expires in September, grants duty-free entry to greater than 1,800 merchandise from eligible sub-Saharan African international locations and has shaped the spine of US-Africa commerce coverage for 25 years. It was renewed for 10 years in 2015. Chocolate and basket-weaving supplies from Mauritius, musical devices from Mali and nuts from Mozambique are among the many merchandise which have reached US consumers by means of AGOA.
Whereas it’s nonetheless formally operational, it’s unclear if the Trump administration will renew it once more. Definitely, Trump’s tariff bulletins “set it alongside the trail to die”, Cheta Nwanze, lead companion at Lagos-based danger evaluation agency SBM Intelligence, advised Al Jazeera.
“African international locations aren’t recognized for making agency geopolitical stances, so lots of them will attempt to maintain on to AGOA, which suggests it’ll go into zombie mode fairly than dying off,” he stated.
The programme has been hailed by economists for years for opening the US market to African producers, though critics say its strict manufacturing and packaging necessities usually favour greater economies. Kenya’s AGOA gross sales, primarily textiles and attire, went from $55m in 2001 to $603m in 2022.
What international locations will probably be most affected?
South Africa and Nigeria are the highest US buying and selling companions on the continent. South Africa primarily exports valuable stones, metal merchandise, and vehicles (primarily from BMW South Africa) to the US. Nigeria exports crude oil and different petroleum merchandise. In return, the US exports crude oil, electrical items and plane to South Africa, and principally automobiles and equipment to Nigeria.
Ghana (cocoa and crude), Ethiopia (espresso), and Kenya (textiles, tea) additionally report massive volumes of commerce with the US yearly beneath the AGOA. Although not listed as “offenders”, these international locations face the ten p.c common tariffs.
Heavier tariffs would have various however largely adverse impacts on African producers, analysts say, and will result in elevated dwelling prices and a lack of jobs that will have an effect on the overall populace.
“Elevated export prices would scale back competitiveness, probably reducing income and destabilising economies,” Nwanze of SBM Intelligence advised Al Jazeera.
Sectors such because the agricultural and mineral extraction companies are more likely to be significantly weak, he added, as most African producers promote uncooked items, not completed merchandise, to the US.
Nigeria remains to be within the throes of a cost-of-living disaster that has led to excessive ranges of starvation and poverty. South Africa, in the meantime, already information among the highest ranges of unemployment on the planet, with an estimated six out of 10 folks out of a job. Specialists there had earlier estimated {that a} 25-percent blanket tariff could be a “worst case situation”.
Chatting with the South African publication IOL earlier than Trump’s announcement, Casey Sprake, an economist at South African funding agency Anchor Capital, stated a 25-percent situation might minimize the nation’s financial progress by between 0.2 and 0.3 proportion factors. The nation ended up with 31 p.c.
How will African international locations react?
Within the brief time period, international locations like South Africa seem to need to purpose with Trump for extra beneficial phrases.
In an announcement earlier this week, Commerce Minister Parks Tau stated the nation was urgently looking for a gathering with Washington. Tau famous that South Africa’s car exports account for under 0.99 p.c of whole US car imports and 0.27 p.c of auto elements – figures he stated hardly posed a menace to the US market.
Generally, African nations are more likely to flip to various commerce companions, reminiscent of China, to keep away from US tariffs, Nwanze added. Already, for almost 20 years, China has overtaken the US as Africa’s high buying and selling companion and represents one of many continent’s largest bilateral lenders.
China imports main items, reminiscent of crude oil, iron ore, copper, and is more and more specializing in agricultural produce, as nicely. However, the nation exports completed merchandise, reminiscent of electronics, again to the continent.
