Greenland, the world’s largest island, votes on Tuesday to elect its subsequent parliament and authorities.
The thinly populated Danish territory’s elections normally entice solely native consideration. Nevertheless, this vote comes at a time when the island has exploded into geopolitical significance, with United States President Donald Trump overtly — and repeatedly — declaring his intent to accumulate it.
Greenland, technically part of North America, is wealthy in mineral sources, positioned midway between Russia and the US, and already hosts a US base.
“I believe we’re going to get it. In some way, we’re going to get it,” Trump instructed the US Congress final week in remarks which have acquired pushback from Greenlandic leaders.
So who’s going to vote within the election? That are the principle events? What are the important thing points driving voters? And what’s at stake for Greenland?
Who’s voting and the way does it work?
About 41,000 residents out of Greenland’s roughly 56,000 persons are eligible to vote to elect 31 members to the Inatsisartut, Greenland’s parliament.
The election follows a proportional illustration system, which means seats are distributed based mostly on the share of votes every occasion receives.
Polling stations are anticipated to open at 9am (11:00 GMT) and shut at 8pm (22:00 GMT) native time. Regardless of the nation’s massive and distant panorama, a excessive voter turnout is anticipated, roughly 70 to 75 %, in line with consultants Al Jazeera spoke to.
Given the comparatively small voters, preliminary outcomes are usually obtainable inside hours after polls shut, with confirmed, ultimate outcomes normally introduced the next day.
That are the principle events and what do they stand for?
A number of events are contesting the election. Whereas some have related views relating to the necessity for financial growth, every occasion nonetheless holds its personal imaginative and prescient of what Greenland’s future ought to entail:
- Inuit Ataqatigiit (IA): The left-wing occasion, led by incumbent Prime Minister Mute Bourup Egede, holds 11 seats in parliament. It helps Greenlandic independence and has steered {that a} referendum might happen within the coming years – however not essentially on this election cycle.
- Siumut: An extended-established occasion which has led parliament previously, Siumut is presently in opposition. Whereas it additionally helps independence, it favours a extra gradual strategy, focusing extra on financial growth.
- Naleraq: A strongly pro-independence occasion that focuses on Greenlandic cultural identification and self-determination, calling for full sovereignty.
- Demokraatit: A centre-right occasion that prioritises financial progress, training and healthcare. It additionally advocates for independence however, like another events, stresses the necessity for financial stability as a prerequisite.
- Atassut: A liberal-conservative occasion that helps sustaining sturdy ties with Denmark. It believes the present setup, with Greenland having fun with some autonomy below Denmark, can assist the island’s financial progress.
Key points
Independence
It stays the most significant and overarching theme on this election, with some events advocating for higher self-governance, and others calling for a extra gradual transition.
Trump has repeatedly referred to as for the island’s acquisition, and final week instructed US Congress that doing so would enhance nationwide and worldwide safety.
His feedback had been quickly refuted by Prime Minister Egede, who proclaimed: “Greenland is ours.”
Some consultants consider Trump’s remarks have reignited discussions round independence from Denmark , which pays annual subsidies to the island.
“There stays a spectrum of views on how rapidly independence might or ought to occur,” Jennifer Spence, director of the Arctic Initiative on the Belfer Heart for Science and Worldwide Affairs, instructed Al Jazeera.
“However I believe, total, it [Trump’s talk of taking over the island] has galvanised Greenlanders of their want to speak to the world that they need and can in the end obtain full independence,” she mentioned.
Others counsel that the specter of a US takeover has really strengthened Greenland’s ties with Copenhagen — and their mutual dependence.
Richard Powell, professor of Arctic research on the College of Cambridge, mentioned whereas independence was nonetheless a “broadly well-liked long-term purpose”, Trump’s newest intervention has “consolidated Greenland’s future inside the Kingdom of Denmark, a minimum of for the following couple of many years”.
Finally, although, “the Greenland authorities has the ability to name an independence referendum if it needs”, mentioned Powell. “It isn’t as much as Denmark or the US.”
Ebbe Volquardsen, a cultural historical past professor on the College of Greenland, mentioned a majority of Greenlanders have for years supported full independence.
“This isn’t a brand new growth,” Volquardsen instructed Al Jazeera. “What’s new, nonetheless, is the rising worldwide consideration on Greenland” since Trump started to indicate curiosity in bringing the island below US management.
With the island’s geopolitical worth now “undeniably clear”, Greenland’s negotiating place has been strengthened in its dialogue with Denmark for gaining higher autonomy, mentioned Volquardsen.
The talk isn’t a lot about whether or not Greenland ought to ultimately declare independence, however fairly about “how and when this purpose may be achieved”, he added.
Financial growth:
Greenland’s economic system is essentially depending on its fishing trade and on Danish monetary assist.
Some events argue that increasing industries like mining, tourism and useful resource extraction might assist Greenland turn out to be extra impartial financially.
Greenland’s wealthy deposits of uncommon earth minerals and different pure sources have drawn consideration from international powers. Powell mentioned “there are estimates that 25 % of the world’s remaining uncommon earth parts and demanding minerals are in Greenland”, making it a possible participant in international provide chains.
However making minerals and mining a central factor of Greenland’s financial future is not going to be simple. Solely a handful of corporations have invested in its mining sector to date – and extractive industries are opposed by Greenland’s Indigenous inhabitants.
“There are additionally substantial questions in regards to the financial viability of extracting these sources due to the excessive prices and troublesome circumstances of mining in Greenland,” mentioned Spence. “There are questions in regards to the environmental dangers and penalties of trying to entry these minerals for Greenland and the well being, social and cultural dangers for Greenlanders.”
Nevertheless, in line with Volquardsen, Greenland is in a “distinctive second of alternative”, which many on the island understand as an opportunity to redefine its ties with Denmark and construct new worldwide partnerships.
“As international consciousness of Greenland’s geopolitical significance grows, so does curiosity in funding — significantly within the mining sector, which is essential for the nation’s financial future,” he mentioned.
How will the election have an effect on Greenland’s international relations?
The election might play a key function in reshaping Greenland’s strategy to worldwide partnerships.
Powell mentioned Greenland will doubtless proceed strengthening its ties with Denmark whereas additionally increasing financial ties with the US, Iceland, and Canada.
“The election will reinforce the precept internationally that that is Greenland’s selection. An election is how folks make their democratic voice heard,” he mentioned.
Spence believes the result will present the world with “a way of the tempo at which Greenlanders wish to search full independence from the Kingdom of Denmark”, in addition to what strategy it is going to use to answer the US curiosity within the island.
It should additionally spotlight who it is going to cooperate with to advance its pursuits and coverage priorities, she mentioned.
How a lot does Denmark management Greenland?
Greenland is now an autonomous Danish territory and has been progressively rising its autonomy from Denmark through the years.
It was granted restricted self-rule in 1979, adopted by broader self-rule in 2009, which incorporates the best to declare independence from Denmark by means of a referendum.
As we speak, Greenland manages most of its home affairs, together with policing and useful resource administration, however Denmark nonetheless oversees international coverage and defence issues.
Denmark’s monetary help additionally stays vital for Greenland, Powell identified.
Copenhagen provides Greenland an annual block grant that quantities to about $570m, which is greater than half of Greenland’s whole finances and is 20 % of the island’s gross home product (GDP).
With sturdy voter engagement anticipated, the election outcomes are broadly anticipated to supply perception into Greenland’s political path.
However in line with Volquardsen, “radical adjustments are to not be anticipated”.
The competing political events agree on many key points, he mentioned, and an entire change of presidency is unlikely.
A dialogue between Greenland and Denmark can be anticipated to renew following the election, Volquardsen mentioned.
“The purpose”, he mentioned, is to grant Greenland higher authority and to diversify its place inside a broader community of commerce companions. “Strengthening cooperation with its western neighbours – significantly america and Canada – is a pure step on this route.”
Why is Trump so fascinated by Greenland?
Greenland’s strategic location and resource potential have attracted Trump’s consideration.
In 2019, Trump first expressed curiosity in shopping for Greenland throughout his first presidential time period, citing its strategic significance and useful resource wealth. This curiosity has endured.
Greenland affords the shortest route from North America to Europe, giving the US a strategic higher hand for its army and ballistic missile early-warning system.
The US additionally maintains an airbase in Greenland and has expressed curiosity in increasing its army presence there by inserting radars within the waters connecting Greenland, Iceland and the UK.
These waters are a gateway for Russian and Chinese language vessels, which Washington seeks to observe. The US additionally desires to stop China from gaining dominance over the island and the Arctic area extra typically.
In recent times, Russia has expanded its naval presence, deployed missile techniques, and ramped up weapons testing within the space.
At present, all 5 events in parliament have mentioned they don’t want Greenland to turn out to be a part of the US.
An opinion ballot printed final month additionally confirmed that 85 % of Greenlanders are against the thought, with almost half saying they see Trump’s curiosity as a risk.
Volquardsen mentioned one of the contentious points within the marketing campaign has been whether or not and when Greenland ought to proactively interact with the US.
“Some political figures advocate for early discussions to make clear US intentions and discover potential negotiations that might profit each events,” he mentioned. “Others see this as too dangerous … and argue that Greenland ought to as an alternative strengthen its current partnerships with Denmark and Europe.”
