The house of each Ugandan president, State Home, is nestled within the hilly uptown Nasakero space of the capital metropolis, Kampala.
For 4 many years, it has been dwelling to only one president – Yoweri Museveni, who has been in workplace longer than every other Ugandan chief.
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Following Thursday’s election, Museveni’s tight maintain on the nation has been prolonged for the seventh time. Though he confronted his largest challenger within the type of fashionable opposition candidate and musician Robert “Bobi Wine” Kyagulanyi, the nation’s electoral fee declared that Museveni had received with 72 % of the vote.
At 81, Museveni is the third-longest serving president on the planet.
His management over Uganda, analysts say, is absolute, and the appointment of his son, Common Muhoozi Kainerugaba, as military chief again in 2024 has prompted worries amongst activists of a dynastic succession plan within the close to future.
In a younger nation the place about 70 % of the 46 million inhabitants is below 35, Museveni is the one president most Ugandans have ever recognized. By the point he completes his newest time period in 2031, he could have served for 45 years.
Nevertheless, he isn’t alone. Throughout Africa, from hilly Kampala to riverside Brazzaville, a number of “life-long” leaders like him have held onto energy for many years, regardless of organising routine elections that give their administrations the illusion of democratic rule.
Political consultants finding out these figures say at the very least three of them: Museveni of Uganda, Paul Biya of Cameroon, and Sassou Nguesso of the Republic of the Congo, have perfected distinctive formulation that assist them consolidate energy, utilizing instruments like compromised elections, divide and rule ways, and highly effective international alliances.
Al Jazeera reached out to the three governments for feedback, however didn’t get a response.
In Uganda, preventing corruption ‘with corruption’
For Museveni, violence is used as a method to suppress dissent and preserve allies in test, Kampala-based political analyst Job Kiija instructed Al Jazeera.
The regional strongman was first sworn in as president again in 1986, after he led the insurgent Nationwide Resistance Military to overturn an unpopular civilian administration in a violent six-year battle now referred to as the Ugandan Bush Struggle. He has remained president below the rebranded Nationwide Resistance Motion.
Museveni’s concepts of management had been possible formed early on, as a political science pupil in neighbouring Tanzania, researchers word. On the time, he studied thinker and anti-colonial theorist Frantz Fanon’s principle of violence.
Violence, Fanon wrote in his ebook, The Wretched of the Earth, was the very best type of political wrestle, one needed for decolonisation. In his closing yr thesis (PDF), Museveni centered on that principle and wholly supported the thinker’s place.
Moderately than apply that considering to a colonial power, nevertheless, Museveni has unleashed it on opposition leaders, journalists, and activists in Uganda, Kiija mentioned.
In 2020, when Bobi Wine first emerged on the political scene below the umbrella of the Nationwide Unity Celebration, the opposition candidate instantly garnered widespread help, notably from younger individuals. Ugandan forces, nevertheless, responded forcefully to his rallies, killing many Bobi Wine supporters.
The identical situations performed out within the lead-up to this month’s election. Safety forces focused opposition rallies with extreme power and subjected opposition supporters to arbitrary arrests and torture, in accordance with a report from rights group Amnesty Worldwide.
Opposition figures are additionally routinely jailed in Uganda. Kizza Besigye, a Museveni ally turned four-time presidential candidate, has been imprisoned since November 2024 on accusations of plotting to take away Museveni. He faces a treason cost, which is punishable by dying within the nation.
Inside his personal camp, Kiija mentioned, Museveni intentionally permits his allies to overstep their boundaries, after which holds their actions over their heads to discourage dissent.
“He permits individuals round him to dip their palms in state coffers, in order that they’re dirty, after which he makes use of that towards them,” the analyst mentioned.
“Everybody round him – he has a portfolio on them, he is aware of how a lot you might have stolen, what you might have amassed, and that’s one of many causes we are able to’t battle corruption as a result of he makes use of that as a instrument to maintain individuals in test.”
Uganda has suffered political instability since its independence from Britain in 1962. The British colonialists employed oblique rule and appointed members of the bulk Buganda tribe to essential positions, whereas excluding others. Put up-colonial Uganda’s instability and weak establishments are partly attributed to that historical past, consultants say.
In 2005, the Ugandan parliament eliminated time period limits from the structure, paving the best way for Museveni to run indefinitely.
Though wealthy in gold, oil, and money crops like espresso, the nation is reliant on Western assist. Museveni positions the nation as a stabilising power within the Nice Lakes area, contributing troops to regional missions, reminiscent of within the battle towards the al-Shabab armed group in Somalia, thus gaining Western help.
Uganda additionally hosts two million refugees from South Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and Sudan – greater than every other African nation.
Amongst its largest donors is the USA. Washington contributed about $970m in yearly growth assist, primarily for well being and humanitarian wants, though US issues over democratic backsliding and Uganda’s criminalisation of same-sex relations strained ties. The present Trump administration has, nevertheless, severely minimize assist globally, affecting the nation.
Whereas Museveni was the clear favorite to win Thursday’s vote, Bobi Wine has dismissed the outcomes as “pretend”. In the meantime, eyes are actually on how Museveni’s eldest youngster, Kainerugaaba, might be positioned within the close to future. The 51-year-old, Kiija mentioned, is clearly being groomed for the highest job.
Cameroon’s ‘absentee president’
Simply months earlier than Museveni soared to a simple victory, on the other facet of the continent, Biya, the 92-year-old president of Cameroon, received an eighth term in workplace in October’s presidential polls.
Biya, who heads the governing Cameroon Individuals’s Democratic Motion (RDPC), has been in energy since 1982 and is the world’s oldest sitting president. The nation’s parliament eliminated time period limits in 2008, and final yr’s win offers him one other seven years on the helm.
The president is thought for spending intensive intervals away from the highlight and even overseas, incomes him the nickname “absentee president”. There have been frequent speculations about his well being, with rumours of his death circulating on social media every so often, just for the president to pop up briefly on nationwide tv.
Nonetheless, few Cameroonians, least of all politician Kah Walla, had been stunned when Biya received one other time period.
Walla, 60, who competed in three previous presidential races, instructed Al Jazeera that the president makes use of the very instrument important to democracies: elections.
“We stay in an electoral autocracy the place the dictator has found out methods to use elections as one of many devices to maintain himself in energy,” she mentioned, including that the electoral physique is actually an extension of the federal government.
Manu Lekunze, a lecturer in worldwide relations on the College of Aberdeen in Scotland, instructed Al Jazeera that Biya makes use of well-funded data campaigns to “divide-and-rule” between Cameroon’s a number of ethnic teams.
Biya’s marketing campaign machine typically harps on how opposition politicians will symbolize solely their ethnic teams, he mentioned. Biya himself enjoys help from his Beti tribe, the adjoining majority Bamileke-Bamus, and the Fulanis by staying near conventional leaders.
“He believes he’s going to stay for a very long time,” Lekunze mentioned. “[He] has an ethnic coalition that can help him regardless, and he makes use of that to get the easy majority he wants, which makes him actually snug in energy.”
Like Museveni, Biya can also be accused of utilizing violence – however “selectively”, Walla famous. Some Cameroonians, she mentioned, refuse to name their nation a “dictatorship” as a result of there’s a semblance of freedom.
“Biya realised that you must give individuals a channel to vent so the resistance received’t construct,” Walla mentioned.
“You possibly can go on TV and say something concerning the president, and nothing may occur, however another person may say the identical factor, and even much less, and be punished [arrested] for it. In order that has led individuals to self-censor as a result of no person is aware of the place the road is.”
No less than 48 people had been killed by safety forces throughout protests in help of opposition candidate Issa Tchiroma, who claimed Biya’s win in October as fraudulent, and declared himself the winner. The now-exiled Tchiroma deserted Biya’s authorities to run within the elections and gained help from his Fulani group, in addition to a number of others.
In 2016, safety forces additionally notably cracked down on the nation’s minority Anglophone areas – the Southwest and Northwest areas – after lecturers and legal professionals there took to the streets to decry the dearth of alternatives for English-speakers. British and French colonial rule noticed two distinct entities merged after independence, however the imbalance tilts in favour of the bulk Francophone inhabitants.
The violent authorities response escalated into an ongoing riot, with armed teams preventing for the secession of an unbiased state, Ambazonia.
Surrounding Biya is a decent elite that Lekunze says advantages from the established order, together with Ferdinand Ngoh-Ngoh, the nation’s secretary-general and de facto president. Nevertheless, Biya has by no means recognized or visibly groomed a successor.
There are fears that the dearth of a single, recognized face to rally round within the case of Biya’s dying may trigger political turmoil inside his social gathering, and sure, the nation. Walla, although, believes that may be useful.
“Ought to he cross away, we might be in a particularly unsure place, however it’s nonetheless in our greatest pursuits to take to the streets at that time as a result of if we don’t, the system will perpetuate itself,” she mentioned.
Energy, petroleum, international backers in Congo-Brazzaville
Regardless of protests within the streets and unrest amongst opposition figures in Cameroon and Uganda, the 2 pivotal presidential elections ended with no actual change in leaderships which have been cemented over many years.
In the meantime, one other octogenarian is search one more time period below comparable situations. Within the Republic of the Congo, 81-year-old President Denis Sassou Nguesso, who has held workplace for 40 years, is ready to run once more within the March 2026 vote below his Congo Labour Celebration.
Nguesso was first elected to workplace in 1979 and led the nation for 12 years earlier than shedding elections. On his second try in 1997, he seized energy in a bloody civil struggle, and has remained in workplace since. In 2015, Nguesso additionally pushed by way of a controversial referendum that eliminated presidential time period limits.
Below him, Congo has remained grossly underdeveloped regardless of its oil wealth, with primary infrastructure missing resulting from corruption, mentioned Andrea Ngombert, the exiled founding father of Sassoufit, a gaggle advocating for Nguesso’s exit.
Highly effective international alliances, Ngombert famous, have helped Nguesso consolidate energy for many years as he retains a safe maintain on highly effective entities, together with by way of marriage.
His daughter, the late Edith Bongo, married into the dynastic Bongo household, which dominated Gabon for many years till a navy coup in 2023.
Nguesso was additionally a powerful ally of the late Angolan president, Jose Eduardo dos Santos. When he returned to grab energy, a thousand Angolan forces supported his “Ninja” militia and helped safe his victory.
The president equally had backing from France, which supplied him with arms throughout the struggle to guard oil investments in Congo, Ngombert mentioned.
“He is not only working on a continental degree, however on a world one,” the activist mentioned.
“He has his nostril in everybody’s enterprise, and he is aware of when to drag your secrets and techniques out to manage you. Everybody is aware of should you want issues to work, you need to have Nguesso in your facet.”
Ngueso’s affect in Paris has, nevertheless, plummeted since 2013, after stress from civil society lastly compelled France to launch investigations into his household’s quite a few property in Europe and the US. In 2022, French authorities seized property belonging to his son, Denis-Christel Sassou Nguesso.
Instead of France, observers say Nguesso has turned to China.
Beijing gives the federal government loans and international direct funding, and might use its veto energy to protect Nguesso from doable scrutiny on the United Nations in return for profitable oil offers, Ngombert mentioned. Nguesso has additionally defended China within the face of reported rights violations in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, and is towards the popularity of Taiwan as a sovereign state.
“On this association, China is the shark and Congo-Brazzaville the remora – an asymmetrical however symbiotic relationship through which one feeds off the opposite and removes dangerous parasites, whereas the opposite supplies safety from different predators,” Ngombert added.
Are free elections at stake in Africa?
Throughout Africa, observers argue, the three leaders and several other others have used power, divisive ways, and international backing to safe and keep energy.
Paradoxically, analysts say, they’ve additionally perfected utilizing elections – meant to be a necessary democratic instrument – to disenfranchise residents.
“Elections have turn out to be a ritual, a approach of simply ticking the field for these leaders, however they don’t seem to be held meaningfully for residents who need to have the ability to categorical their emotions with votes,” Tendai Mbanje, an elections skilled at South Africa’s College of Pretoria, instructed Al Jazeera.
“Electoral establishments have been captured and have deviated from their mandate, and the individuals main them haven’t any integrity, as most are political appointees,” he added.
But, regardless of this bleak outlook, African nations don’t have the posh to discard elections: residents can’t afford to cease voting or requesting truthful electoral situations, he warned.
“We must always not abandon elections as a result of they continue to be the one official approach for residents to state their selection,” Mbanje mentioned.
“What individuals must do is to withstand – by way of protests, by way of authorized mobilisation. Opposition leaders, citizen actions, and spiritual leaders should all rise in resistance.”
