After I learn all of the hype being heaped on Kamala Harris’ lead in early polls for the 2028 Democratic nomination, I’ve to chuckle to myself.
The discharge of a Rasmussen Reviews ballot in February was titled, “Kamala Harris Nonetheless Leads 2028 Area for Democrats.” One headline within the Hill predicted, “Kamala Harris could but be the Democratic nominee in 2028.” A Washington Examiner piece about polling warned, “Democrats gained’t eliminate Kamala Harris that simply for 2028.”
I chuckle not as a result of I don’t consider the numbers, however as a result of I don’t consider any ballot this far out in an open contest is significant, not to mention determinative. I’ve seen this film earlier than, and it didn’t finish nicely.
In 2003, after managing the profitable 2002 reelection marketing campaign of California Gov. Grey Davis, I signed on as an advisor to the presidential marketing campaign of Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman — who, I needn’t remind anybody, had been the Democratic nominee for vp within the 2000 election, which he and Al Gore misplaced in a nail-biter to George W. Bush.
Primarily based merely on his excessive identify identification from that hellzapoppin’ race, and the actual fact his identify had been on the poll in all 50 states simply two years earlier than, Lieberman initially led the Democratic subject fairly handily in virtually each nationwide ballot.
An ABC Information/Washington Submit survey in January 2003 discovered Lieberman main the Democratic subject with 27%. A Gallup ballot from that very same month additionally positioned him first, forward of each John Kerry and Richard Gephardt.
A Pew ballot in the summertime of 2003 additionally discovered Lieberman atop the sector, because the best-known candidate at 85% identify recognition, and 58% assist, forward of Kerry, Gephardt and Howard Dean.
Boy, did we brag about Lieberman’s lead at each cease and in each press launch. However ultimately, the promising early numbers meant nothing. When precise votes have been solid, Lieberman completely flamed out, receiving a measly 8.9% of the vote within the essential first major in New Hampshire, ending useless final, and dropping out of the race in February 2004, having misplaced each major and caucus as much as that time.
Why? Lots of causes, together with errors made by the candidate and marketing campaign. However basically as a result of, when Democrats began to take a detailed have a look at and assess the total subject, they relegated Lieberman to the standing of a loser, and so they wished to maneuver on. We heard a variety of, “He had his probability and misplaced.” Does Harris come to thoughts?
The very fact is, we Democrats are inclined to put defeated presidential nominees within the rear-view mirror fairly shortly. Consider Michael Dukakis, Gore and Kerry. And let’s not neglect, Harris acquiring the nomination in 2024 was a fluke; she didn’t compete in a single major or obtain one major vote. The primary time she ran for president, within the 2020 cycle, she additionally didn’t win one major or obtain a single major vote, as a result of she ran a foul marketing campaign and hightailed it out of the race earlier than a single vote was solid. Two strikes and also you’re out?
We Democrats simply don’t renominate losers. The final time we did it was precisely 70 — sure, 70 — years in the past, with Adlai Stevenson in 1956 after he had misplaced the 1952 presidential race to Dwight Eisenhower. Stevenson rewarded Democrats for this recycling effort by dropping to Eisenhower a second time — by an excellent worse margin. Democrats discovered their lesson: Reheating doesn’t work with failed candidates.
And, come on, Harris not solely misplaced to Trump, not solely misplaced all seven swing states, however was the primary Democratic presidential nominee in 20 years to lose the favored vote. And her weak displaying additionally helped Republicans wrest management of the Senate from Democrats. We’re speculated to think about that’s a reputable document on which to run once more for the nomination?
All of those breathless tales about Harris main the sector nationally additionally by no means point out her perilous standing in her own residence state of California. A Berkeley IGS survey in August revealed that by a margin of 18 share factors, even her fellow Democrats in California didn’t need her to run once more. A Politico ballot this month confirmed Gov. Gavin Newsom with a 2-to-1 lead in California amongst voters leaning towards voting within the 2028 Democratic major.
So have enjoyable, Kamala Harris, having fun with your name-ID excessive whereas it lasts (though perhaps a mite longer than your 107-day presidential effort).
Garry South is a Democratic strategist who has managed 4 campaigns for governor of California and performed vital roles in three presidential campaigns, together with that of Al Gore.
