On Aug. 8, because the White Home hosted the trilateral signing of a peace agreement between Armenia, Azerbaijan and america, I spoke to a gaggle of Armenian highschool college students from Los Angeles. We paused to observe the information convention on a laptop computer within the nook of our crowded room. Their faces — curious, cautious and skeptical — mirrored a sentiment throughout the Armenian diaspora: hope tempered by doubt, pleasure shadowed by distrust.
This battle’s roots run deep. After the Soviet Union collapsed, Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a brutal struggle over a area inside Azerbaijan’s borders however claimed by each nations. Azerbaijanis name it Nagorno-Karabakh; Armenians name it Artsakh. A ceasefire held for years however left core disputes unresolved — over territory, governance and the proper of self-determination for the area’s Armenian inhabitants.
Warfare erupted once more in 2020. Backed by Turkey and armed with superior weapons, Azerbaijan gained management of a lot of the disputed territory. The Trump administration did nothing to meaningfully intervene. For Armenians, it was a devastating loss — of land, safety, belief and cultural heritage. For Azerbaijan, it was a political and army victory that shifted the stability of energy.
In December 2022, Azerbaijan launched a blockade of the Lachin hall — the one street linking Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh to Armenia — tightening its grip on a area already reeling from struggle. For the following 10 months, fuel, electrical energy, web, meals and medication have been minimize off to 120,000 Armenians, lots of them youngsters and aged. Households rationed bread. Surgical procedures have been postponed. Faculties closed.
I visited the area throughout this time and stood on the Armenian finish of the hall, the place a silent convoy of vans stretched out of sight up the street — every loaded with meals, medication and fundamental provides, every driver understanding they could by no means be allowed to ship them. The air was heavy with frustration and helplessness. Within the restricted protection of the siege, the remoted Armenians spoke in hushed tones, their faces drawn from months of concern and deprivation. The International Court of Justice ordered Azerbaijan to reopen the hall, however Baku ignored it.
I took pleasure when President Biden officially recognized the Armenian genocide — an ethical milestone many years overdue. However his administration did not punish Azerbaijan throughout the blockade, and it failed to stop what got here subsequent: Azerbaijan’s full-scale army assault on Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh in September 2023. The assault lasted simply 24 hours however compelled greater than 100,000 ethnic Armenians — nearly your complete inhabitants of the area — to flee their houses. Centuries-old communities have been emptied virtually in a single day, and households left behind houses, companies and locations of worship, unsure if they’d ever return.
I’ve felt conflicted watching the Trump administration’s peace-making efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan. On one hand, I really like seeing my nation, america, stand with Armenia and prioritize Armenian points on the world stage. On the opposite, this second feels hole. And to me, this displays a deeper drawback: U.S. coverage towards the South Caucasus has lengthy lacked consistency, accountability and the desire to confront aggressors, irrespective of which celebration is in energy. And in Washington, Armenians have few associates and weak illustration.
This settlement — like a lot of U.S. international coverage within the present administration — is unmistakably transactional. Armenia features U.S. safety assurances and cooperation on synthetic intelligence, together with assist for an rising AI hub, which is supposed to anchor its Western trajectory. Azerbaijan walks away with de facto immunity as an alternative of being held accountable for its actions in opposition to the Armenians of Artsakh, in addition to arms gross sales and a transit hall to Turkey. The USA will get a geopolitical trophy: Trump’s title on the hall to Turkey, leverage within the area and an obvious diplomatic “win” to market at dwelling.
However this deal is much from full. It omits the proper of return for displaced Armenians to Artsakh, ignores the destruction of Armenians’ cities, houses and companies, makes no dedication to protect Artsakh’s cultural heritage and says nothing about prisoners of struggle. For a lot of within the Armenian diaspora, these are obtrusive and unacceptable omissions.
On paper, the newly named Trump Route for Worldwide Peace and Prosperity, the hyperlink from Azerbaijan to Turkey, is billed as a impartial, cooperative path to be administered by the U.S. In actuality, it raises critical questions on Armenia’s sovereignty. The hall will run by means of Armenia’s southern Syunik province — its solely direct land hyperlink to Iran — and will weaken Yerevan’s potential to completely management its personal borders, regulate commerce and guarantee unimpeded entry to an important southern lifeline.
At finest, the Aug. 8 settlement affords a slim hope for an actual decision of the area’s conflicts. If applied absolutely, it may assist construct a extra steady and affluent Armenia for future generations. The problem is in guaranteeing this deal yields a U.S. funding in reconstruction, accountability and lasting safety, one thing greater than a photograph op.
And even incomplete, flawed agreements can create openings. Armenia’s pivot West, which the deal underlines, carries danger, nevertheless it additionally affords the opportunity of stronger safety partnerships, financial renewal and cultural preservation, if these advantages attain the individuals who have endured struggle and blockade, not simply the leaders who signed the papers. In recent times, Armenia has seen a stunning financial growth, pushed by tech funding, tourism and a wave of returning diaspora expertise. This fragile momentum could possibly be strengthened or squandered relying on what comes subsequent.
I respect President Trump for pursuing peace agreements — leaders in all places ought to make peace their highest precedence. The Armenian American college students I met on Aug. 8, who carry the inherited ache of their dad and mom and grandparents, deserve greater than symbolic gestures or transactional offers. They deserve justice and the liberty to check a greater future for his or her ancestors’ homeland. In the end, that’s the hope all of us share.
Jirair Ratevosian served as senior coverage advisor for the State Division within the Biden administration.
