CAN SOUTH KOREA GO ITS OWN WAY?
Amongst US allies, South Korea is maybe the best-positioned to hedge towards a extra unpredictable America. European North Atlantic Treaty Group (NATO) states have underinvested in laborious energy for many years and can want years to securely de-link from the US. Japan is in an analogous state.
However South Korea has lengthy spent much more on its navy than these different US companions. It has a big, high-quality defence industrial base. Not like most US allies, it will probably quickly produce giant quantities of ammunition, helicopters, armoured autos and ships. All South Korean males are drafted, so it additionally has a militarily mobilised inhabitants.
And most controversially, South Korea has the capability to shortly construct nuclear weapons, and there’s sturdy home consensus – over 70 per cent in public opinion surveys – to take action.
South Korea’s weak point is commerce dependence. The nation routinely runs a commerce surplus with the US. That is extensively seen as a triumph within the South Korean media, however it’s not. South Korea suffers from continual home underconsumption and produces greater than it will probably eat domestically, so it’s depending on international patrons.
This, in flip, implies that it’s economically susceptible to the political caprice of its largest markets – China and the US. Previously, China has exploited this asymmetry, bullying South Korea over market entry for geopolitical causes. It’s a new second that America is now doing this too.
That South Korea is definitely contemplating acceding to Mr Trump’s US$350 billion demand – on high of a 15 per cent tariff on Korean merchandise getting into the US – solely highlights how disarticulated and dependent Seoul’s financial system actually is.
