Chinese citizens unconvinced by official growth claims

Good morning and pleased Friday. In immediately’s e-newsletter:

• Chinese language residents doubt official progress claims

• Has China already reached peak oil?

• Uproar in India over lengthy work hours

We begin in China, the place a slew of financial information is due immediately, together with GDP figures anticipated to indicate the world’s second-largest financial system expanded at a brisk tempo of about 5 per cent in 2024.

However many Chinese language individuals who work in sectors from banking and native authorities to eating places and ride-hailing are unconvinced by official progress claims — and say present situations really feel extra like a recession.

“I don’t know the place this progress is meant to be coming from,” an proprietor of a printing and promoting firm in Beijing advised the FT.

“The authorities can say no matter they need,” he stated, suggesting the official information was “blind to actuality”. “For me, 2024 has been the worst yr in my 20-plus years of working this enterprise.”

Economists, and even senior officers, have lengthy questioned the accuracy of China’s GDP numbers, that are launched by the Nationwide Bureau of Statistics and nearly at all times hit annual authorities targets with uncanny accuracy. Here’s what they say about the country’s growth figures.

• Chinese language property market: Rio Tinto, the Anglo-Australian miner, has pointed to “signs of stabilisation” in Chinese language property after weak demand from the nation’s building sector hit the worth of iron ore final yr.

And right here’s what else we’re holding tabs on immediately and over the weekend:

• Center East: Israel’s cupboard will meet immediately to debate the approval of the Gaza ceasefire, whereas a far-right minister has threatened to quit if the federal government implements the deal.

• Russia-Iran ties: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian maintain talks in Moscow, the place they’re anticipated to signal a strategic partnership pact. (Reuters)

• Asean assembly: International ministers collect in Langkawi, Malaysia on Saturday.

• TikTok: A US ban on the favored Chinese language-owned app is because of take impact on Sunday.

How effectively did you retain up with the information this week? Take our quiz.

5 extra prime tales

1. Washington has blacklisted Zhipu, China’s most distinguished start-up growing massive language fashions for synthetic intelligence, alleging that it was advancing Chinese language navy capabilities by way of the combination of AI analysis. The beginning-up stated it “strongly disagreed” with the US transfer, which it stated “lacked factual foundation”. Read the full story.

• Extra on AI: Donald Trump’s choose for secretary of the inside warned the US may lose the “AI arms race” to China except it boosts era of power from fossil fuels and stabilises its electrical energy grid.

• TSMCS outcomes: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Firm has cut its profitability target regardless of roaring demand for AI chips.

2. Donald Trump’s nominee to be Treasury secretary stated the US ought to enhance sanctions on Russian oil producers to pressure Moscow to barter with Ukraine. The feedback yesterday by Scott Bessent pushed up oil costs, as merchants thought of the prospect of tighter international crude provide. Here’s what the Treasury nominee said about China during his confirmation hearing.

3. Trump may use the approval of cross-border offers to press international governments into aligning with US coverage priorities, dealmakers and traders have warned. One European banker stated: “The individuals on this administration haven’t any compunction about using every lever at their disposal to achieve their aims.”

• Nippon Metal: An anti-Japan tirade by the pinnacle of US steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs is symptomatic of the abrasive atmosphere brewing within the Trump period, writes Leo Lewis.

4. The UK international secretary and residential secretary have intervened on China’s planning utility for an unlimited new London embassy, signalling their help whereas outlining situations for the proposed website. Read more about Beijing’s planned mega-embassy in London.

5. Activist quick vendor Nathan Anderson, well-known for his campaigns in opposition to Adani Group, Tremendous Micro and Nikola, is shutting down his agency Hindenburg Analysis seven years after he based it. Here’s why.

The Large Learn

International oil has underpinned China’s financial rise, because the nation constructed the world’s largest automobile trade from scratch, new railways and air journey networks, and 1000’s of skyscrapers. However China’s thirst for crude could also be reaching a peak earlier than anticipated, a growth that has sent shockwaves through the oil market.

We’re additionally studying . . . 

• Do Indians work an excessive amount of?: An govt within the nation has gone viral for saying employees ought to be in the office on Sundays.

• US oligarchs: The emergence of a robust tech elite near Donald Trump has jarring echoes with Russia, writes John Thornhill.

• Life after struggle: The joy sweeping Gaza on the anticipated halt to the devastating Israel-Hamas battle is combined with grief over months of demise and destruction.

Chart of the day

Native smartphone makers Vivo and Huawei leapfrogged Apple to develop into the highest two sellers within the Chinese language market final yr, dealing a blow to the iPhone maker because it struggles to introduce AI options on the mainland.

Take a break from the information . . . 

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