The ruling get together of Costa Rica is hoping to increase its management of the presidency for one more 4 years within the nation’s upcoming election, as voters categorical apathy about their choices and opposition events battle to mobilise assist.
On Sunday, tens of millions of Costa Ricans will head to the polls to vote. However whereas the forecast seems to be promising for the centre-right populist motion championed by outgoing President Rodrigo Chaves, the election conceals a wild card: a lot of undecided voters.
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As many as a 3rd of Costa Ricans have but to choose a presidential candidate.
Nonetheless, Chaves’s motion seems on monitor to safe sufficient votes to keep away from a run-off. Its prospects have been bolstered by a splintered opposition and waning assist for centre-left teams just like the Nationwide Liberation Celebration and Residents’ Motion, each of which held the presidency earlier than Chaves.
Simply as voter assist has shifted, so too have voter priorities: Polls present extra Costa Ricans are involved with safety than the financial system within the upcoming election.
“Costa Rica is shifting in direction of a political realignment,” mentioned Ronald Alfaro, the coordinator of the Public Opinion and Political Tradition Unit on the College of Costa Rica.
Who’re the candidates? Which points are prime of thoughts for voters? We reply these questions and extra on this temporary explainer.
When is the election?
Voting is scheduled to happen over a 12-hour interval on February 1, with the presidency, the 2 vice presidential positions and all 57 seats of the nation’s legislature up for grabs.
What occurs if no candidate wins the primary spherical outright?
If no presidential hopeful crosses the 40 % threshold essential to keep away from a run-off, the 2 prime candidates will face off in one other spherical of voting on April 5.
Is voting necessary in Costa Rica?
Whereas Costa Rica’s structure states that voting is a “obligatory civic operate”, there are no penalties for many who don’t take part.
Greater than 3.7 million Costa Ricans are eligible to vote. However many have expressed indifference to this 12 months’s election cycle.
A January 21 poll from the College of Costa Rica’s Centre for Political Analysis and Research (CIEP) discovered that almost 79 % of respondents mentioned they felt little or no enthusiasm in regards to the campaigns.
However the respondents had a spread of responses when requested about their willingness to truly forged a poll. Greater than 57 % answered they felt motivated to vote. Solely 19.5 % mentioned that they had no need to take part within the election.
Who’re the candidates?
Former authorities minister Laura Fernandez is operating with the Sovereign Folks Celebration (PPSO) to succeed President Chaves, promising continuity along with his management.
Chaves stays well-liked in Costa Rica and has constructed a popularity for railing towards what he defines as a corrupt establishment.
However presidents are restricted from operating for back-to-back phrases, and Fernandez has campaigned on her work inside Chaves’s authorities, together with as his chief of workers and minister for nationwide planning and financial coverage.
She has additionally pledged to nominate Chaves to her cupboard if elected as president.
The opposition to Chaves, in the meantime, has but to consolidate round a single candidate.
Alvaro Ramos, an economist and the administrator of Costa Rica’s healthcare and pension programs, is operating because the candidate for the centre-left Nationwide Liberation Celebration, a once-dominant pressure within the nation’s politics.
However he faces competitors on the left from former First Girl Claudia Dobles, whose husband Carlos Alvarado Quesada served as president from 2018 to 2022.
An city planner, Dobles might be representing the Citizen Agenda Coalition (CAC), a gaggle made up of two left-wing forces: the Residents’ Motion Celebration and the Nationwide Democratic Agenda.
Additional splitting the opposition vote is 34-year-old legislator Ariel Robles of the left-leaning Broad Entrance Celebration (FA). He hopes to galvanise dissatisfaction with the established order from the left.
The place do the candidates rank within the polls?
The latest poll from CIEP, revealed on January 28, discovered that about 43.8 % of respondents anticipate to vote for Fernandez. That degree of assist could be sufficient to keep away from a runoff.
Ramos polls in a distant second with 9.2 %, and Dobles is shut behind with 8.6 %. Robles, in the meantime, is in fourth place with 3.8 % assist.
About 26 % of respondents mentioned that they had not selected who they’d vote for, down from 32 % the week earlier than.
Fernandez seems well-positioned to safe a first-round win, one thing unusual within the nation’s current historical past. However analysts say that one other candidate may nonetheless outperform expectations, given the collapse of conventional political blocs and the massive variety of undecided voters.
Upsets should not unusual in Costa Rica’s presidential elections. A poll earlier than the 2022 race discovered Chaves drawing solely 7 % assist, however he nonetheless went on to win the presidency.
“Within the final three elections, now we have seen an underdog who no person was enthusiastic about see a giant bounce,” mentioned Alfaro. “Are there circumstances for that? Maybe, prior to now, they have been larger, however there’s nonetheless an opportunity.”
What points are entrance and centre?
Nationwide safety has been a prime problem on this 12 months’s election cycle, with practically all candidates embracing robust insurance policies to fight crime.
Fernandez, as an illustration, has proposed in her platform to finish the maximum-security mega-prison that Chaves began to construct in August.
The finished jail, beneath Fernandez’s plan, would “isolate leaders of organised crime”, chopping them off from the skin world. She has additionally advocated for necessary jail labour and stricter legal sentencing.
Whereas Costa Rica was as soon as identified for its relative stability, homicides and organised crime have risen within the nation.
Preliminary authorities figures for 2025 present that 873 homicides have been reported within the nation, down barely from a excessive of 907 in 2023 and on par with 2024.
Proper-wing candidates have efficiently capitalised on comparable issues in different Latin American nations comparable to El Salvador, Ecuador and Chile.
Within the last weeks earlier than Sunday’s vote, Chaves invited El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele – identified for “mano dura” or “iron-fisted” strategy to safety – to tour the brand new mega-prison web site. His authorities additionally accused a human rights activist of looking for his assassination.
The activist has denied the allegations, calling them politically motivated. However specialists say such accusations might help heighten voter fears forward of a pivotal vote.
What position is President Chaves taking part in?
Greater than any specific coverage problem, Alfaro says that the present election is a referendum on the Chaves presidency and dissatisfaction with the standard opposition events.
The present president will not be on the poll, however he has additionally performed an outsized position within the lead-up to the election.
Chaves has additionally confronted quite a few allegations of unlawful marketing campaign interference, and the pinnacle of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) has accused him of “threatening the peace and political stability of the nation”.
Analysts say that his efforts to affect the race are uncommon in Costa Rica and have alarmed observers who see it as proof of his personalistic fashion of politics.
“Costa Rica is likely one of the few nations the place this precept – that the president doesn’t play a task within the marketing campaign and doesn’t work to affect the marketing campaign – continues to be in place,” mentioned Alfaro. “The present president is pushing these boundaries to their limits.”
