Federal authorities arrested a particular operations soldier who was concerned within the seize of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro for allegedly pocketing greater than $400,000 by betting on his removing from workplace, the Justice Division introduced Thursday.
Federal investigators mentioned Gannon Ken Van Dyke guess greater than $33,000 on the prediction market Polymarket simply days earlier than President Donald Trump announced Maduro’s capture.
The collection of bets — which netted greater than $409,000 — instantly prompted scrutiny throughout the world of prediction markets and resulted in a monthslong investigation about whether or not inside info was used to put the bets.
Van Dyke was indicted on costs that included illegal use of confidential info for private achieve, theft of nonpublic authorities info, commodities fraud, and wire fraud.
When, after inserting the bets, he noticed reviews about uncommon buying and selling related to the mission, Van Dyke allegedly tried to cover the proof of the trades by making an attempt to delete his Polymarket account and alter the e-mail tackle registered to his cryptocurrency alternate account, in line with the indictment.
“Slightly than safeguard that info as he was obligated to do, VAN DYKE determined to make use of that labeled info to put trades on a prediction market platform for his private revenue,” the indictment mentioned. “VAN DYKE subsequently tried to hide his illegal use of labeled U.S. Authorities info by making an attempt to obscure the supply of his illegal proceeds and to disguise his connection to the accounts linked to the illicit trades.”
It was not instantly clear if Van Dyke had authorized illustration.
Nicolas Maduro and his spouse, Cilia Flores, are seen in handcuffs after touchdown at a Manhattan helipad, escorted by closely armed Federal brokers as they make their approach into an armored automotive en path to a Federal courthouse in Manhattan, on Jan. 5, 2026, in New York.
Xny/star Max/GC Pictures by way of Getty Pictures, FILE
Days earlier than President Trump introduced that Maduro was captured throughout “Operation Absolute Resolve,” Van Dyke positioned a collection of bets on Polymarket, together with whether or not Maduro could be faraway from workplace by Jan. 31 and if the U.S. would invade Venezuela, in line with officers.
“We’re a revered nation once more like, perhaps, like by no means earlier than,” Trump mentioned following the fastidiously deliberate overnight operation. “These highly-trained warriors, working in collaboration with U.S. legislation enforcement, caught them in a really prepared place.”
Whereas the indictment doesn’t go into element about Van Dyke’s involvement within the raid, prosecutors famous that he was photographed on the deck of the united stateslwo Jima — the ship Maduro was moved to following his seize — sporting navy fatigues and holding a rifle alongside different service members.
Based on Polymarket, a dealer who created an account in Dec. 2025 guess $33,933 throughout 4 predictions associated to the U.S. invasion of Venezuela and the seize of Maduro. The most important place — a $32,537 guess that Maduro could be out of workplace by Jan. 31 — resulted in a 1,242% revenue of $404,222.
A Polymarket spokesperson mentioned the corporate referred the suspicious bets to the Division of Justice and cooperated with the investigation, in line with a press release posted to X.
“Insider buying and selling has no place on Polymarket. In the present day’s arrest is proof the system works,” the assertion mentioned.
The arrest and indictment are believed to be the primary occasion of the Division of Justice prosecuting a case of insider buying and selling on a prediction market. Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction platform, permits merchants to anonymously guess on future occasions utilizing occasion contracts based mostly on sure or no questions. Firm representatives couldn’t be instantly reached for remark.
Whereas prediction markets are primarily regulated by the Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee, suspiciously-timed trades on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have sparked issues about insider trading. Along with the $400,000 Maduro guess, one other Polymarket consumer made roughly $550,000 via a collection of bets associated to the U.S. striking Iran and the removing of the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
In an interview in early March, U.S. Lawyer for the Southern District of New York Jay Clayton confirmed that prosecutors in his workplace had been actively taking a look at methods to probably prosecute people who search to sport the system via manipulating prediction markets.
“My prosecutors are busy taking a look at what legal guidelines we are able to use which can be like insider buying and selling legal guidelines,” Clayton mentioned on CNBC.
Whereas prediction markets are comparatively new, prosecutors could possibly apply a decades-old statute to convey an insider buying and selling case, in line with Noah Solowiejczyk, a accomplice at legislation agency Fenwick & West and former federal prosecutor in Manhattan.
“The Commodities Change Act offers with a state of affairs like this,” mentioned Solowiejczyk, who as a prosecutor charged the first-ever cryptocurrency insider buying and selling case. “There is a specific provision … that really prohibits workers or brokers of the federal authorities from buying and selling on confidential authorities info that they study.”
Nevertheless, Solowiejczyk famous that prosecutors could have to plan for a “studying curve” for a possible jury to know how prediction markets work.
“A significant enterprise for the federal government could be distilling and simplifying what occurred in order that the jury can perceive it,” he mentioned. “That is typically one of many challenges for the federal government in these circumstances that contain new expertise that jurors is probably not accustomed to.”
Whereas Thursday’s arrest marks a primary for U.S. authorities, the prosecution is just not unprecedented globally. In February, an Israeli military reservist and civilian had been charged in Israel in reference to utilizing labeled info to put bets on Polymarket.
