QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, about half the cargo ships are headed to the US to get oil. Some have claimed that Trump is attempting to switch the Center East. This appears to be a conspiracy principle that contradicts what you’ve reported. What do you make of that?
RW
ANSWER: I do know, there are wild conspiracy theories being proposed. I’ve even heard that Trump did this to power the EU to break down. Sending the world into recession/melancholy is absurd. Trump is attempting to promote extra widgets, not fewer. Plus, rising oil costs put the Midterms in danger. That simply is mindless. Most of those conspiracy theories assume the individuals in authorities are good – that’s NOT the case.
As for tankers, there usually are not sufficient on this planet to move all of the oil that must be transported. We now have had among the world’s largest shippers as shoppers for many years. There may be what is called “Tonne-miles” (or tonne-kilometers), which is the usual unit for measuring freight transportation quantity, and it’s a key metric for understanding crude oil logistics.
A single ton-mile represents shifting one ton of cargo over a distance of 1 mile. Within the oil trade, a “ton” of crude oil is roughly 7.5 barrels. This metric permits you to instantly examine the full transport “work” finished by totally different modes (pipeline, rail, ship, truck), whatever the cargo measurement or distance.
Essentially the most notable shift within the information is from water carriers to pipelines. In 1980, water carriers held a slight lead over pipelines for crude oil ton-miles. By 1999, pipelines had grown their share to over 75%, whereas water carriers had dropped to underneath 24%.
On a worldwide scale, the main target shifts to seaborne commerce, which is measured in tonne-miles (the metric equal). Latest information reveals it is a huge and rising trade, presently being reshaped by geopolitical occasions. World oil tonne-miles (for all merchandise) grew from roughly 15.3 trillion in 2020 to 16.4 trillion in 2024, a rise of about 6%. Crude oil itself constitutes roughly 70% of complete international seaborne tonne-miles.
In 2025, the worldwide determine stood at roughly 12.2 trillion (year-to-date), indicating a contraction. This decline is partly because of the rerouting of tankers away from the Pink Sea due to Houthi assaults, which induced tanker tonne-miles to hit a five-year excessive earlier in 2024 earlier than the present dip. The explanation that is essential to our evaluation is that it is a core measure of financial exercise. The entire quantity of crude oil moved is a key enter for GDP figures, whereas modifications in tonne-miles have an effect on the prices of vitality and shopper items.
This enables for a direct comparability of effectivity between modes. For instance, pipelines and enormous tankers are much more energy-efficient per ton-mile than vans or rail. Some take a look at this additionally as a carbon footprint and different environmental prices of transporting crude oil over lengthy distances. Vitality firms and governments depend on tonne-mile forecasts to determine the place to construct new pipelines, increase ports, or spend money on rail infrastructure.
The longer the journey to move oil the upper the associated fee to ship that oil. Due to this fact, we have now one other variable right here relating to the price of delivery. On high of all of this, the declare that america is one way or the other displacing Iran is de facto absurd. The US is a NET IMPORTER of crude oil. We might be able to facilitate some for geopolitical causes and to attempt to maintain costs down, however the US can in no doable manner substitute the Center East. Who ever makes up these tales are actually past hope.
