Russia and China, Tehran’s two strongest diplomatic companions, have labelled the US-Israeli conflict on Iran that has killed greater than 1,000 individuals a transparent violation of worldwide legislation.
President Vladimir Putin known as the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Saturday a “cynical violation of all norms of human morals”.
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China’s International Affairs Minister Wang Yi informed his Israeli counterpart, Gideon Saar, that “pressure can’t really clear up issues” as he urged all sides to keep away from additional escalation.
Russia and China collectively requested an emergency assembly of the United Nations Safety Council.
The response displays the shut relationship between Iran, Russia, and China. Moscow and Beijing have signed bilateral offers and expanded coordination by way of joint naval drills, projecting a united entrance in opposition to what they describe as a US-led worldwide order that has lengthy sought to isolate them.
But regardless of their sharp rhetoric, neither has indicated a willingness to intervene militarily to help Iran.
Russia-Iran: Strategic companions, not navy allies
In January 2025, Russia and Iran signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty masking areas from commerce and navy cooperation to science, tradition, and training.
The settlement deepened defence and intelligence coordination and supported initiatives reminiscent of transport corridors, linking Russia to the Gulf by way of Iran.
The pair carried out joint navy drills within the Indian Ocean as lately as late February, the week earlier than the US and Israel attacked Iran.
Nonetheless, when the conflict started, Moscow was not obliged to reply because the treaty didn’t embody a mutual defence clause, which means it stopped wanting forming a proper navy alliance.
Andrey Kortunov, the previous director normal of the Russian Worldwide Affairs Council and a member of the Valdai Dialogue Membership, a Russian international coverage suppose tank, informed Al Jazeera through videolink from Moscow, that Russia’s 2024 mutual defence treaty with North Korea is an instance of a “extra binding” settlement on navy help.
He mentioned that, beneath that settlement, Russia could be obliged to affix North Korea “in any battle the nation would possibly get entangled in”, whereas with Iran, “it simply talked about that either side agreed to abstain from any hostile actions in case the opposite facet is engaged in battle”.
Kortunov mentioned Russia is unlikely to take direct navy motion in help of Iran as a result of the dangers could be too excessive.
He added that Moscow seems to be “prioritising the USA mediation within the battle with Ukraine”, and famous that Russia has beforehand taken an identical strategy by criticising US actions in locations like Venezuela after the US navy assault and arrest of its President, Nicolas Maduro, in January.
Though the treaty clearly states that Russia shouldn’t be obliged to intervene, he mentioned a few of his contacts in Tehran have expressed a “diploma of frustration”, and there had been an “expectation that Russia ought to by some means do extra than simply diplomatic strikes within the United Nations Safety Council or in different multilateral boards”.
China–Iran ties and their limits
In 2021, China and Iran signed a 25-year cooperation settlement geared toward increasing ties in areas reminiscent of vitality, whereas additionally drawing Iran into China’s Belt and Street Initiative.
Jodie Wen, a postdoctoral fellow on the Centre for Worldwide Safety and Technique (CISS) at Tsinghua College in China, who has travelled incessantly to Iran, informed Al Jazeera that the connection is broadly considered in Beijing as pragmatic and steady.
“From the political facet, now we have common trade,” she mentioned over the telephone from Beijing, including, “on the financial facet, the cooperation could be very deep; many enterprises have investments in Iran.”
But she pressured that Beijing has lengthy drawn clear limits across the partnership, notably relating to navy involvement.
“The Chinese language authorities at all times adheres to not interfering in different international locations’ points … I don’t suppose the Chinese language authorities would ship weapons to Iran,” she mentioned.
As an alternative, Beijing’s function is extra prone to concentrate on diplomacy and disaster administration.
“I believe China is making an attempt its strategy to speak with the US facet and Gulf international locations to maintain calm,” she mentioned.
That readability concerning the relationship, she added, has helped construct belief in Tehran.
Even so, she famous the connection shouldn’t be symmetrical.
Vessel-tracking service Kpler estimates that 87.2 p.c of Iran’s annual crude oil exports go to China, underscoring how economically vital China is for Tehran, whereas Iran stays a comparatively small accomplice in China’s world commerce.
Dylan Loh, an affiliate professor within the Public Coverage and World Affairs programme at Nanyang Technological College in Singapore, informed Al Jazeera that he believes China’s function relating to Iran “has developed right into a protecting one, accelerating its mediation effort to forestall a regional collapse that might threaten its personal regional financial and safety pursuits”.
“I believe there will probably be some evaluation of find out how to decrease the political dangers and what types of choices can be found; reality be informed, this re-think already began after [the US attack on] Venezuela,” he mentioned.
