LONDON — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy sat virtually a 12 months in the past within the Oval Workplace, listening along with his arms crossed as President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance castigated him.
That outstanding and confrontational meeting included a menace from Trump, who stated, “You’re both going to make a deal or we’re out.”
What has adopted that dialog, which recast U.S. help for Ukraine as a nicety and never a necessity, because it had been below the Biden administration, has been a 12 months of high-stakes negotiations backed by the Trump administration.
Zelenskyy and Trump have since met and seemingly mended their relationship, however Trump at instances within the final 12 months has publicly wavered in his already tepid help for Ukraine. He’s pushed each Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin to make concessions for a deal to finish Moscow’s brutal warfare on its neighbor, which started 4 years in the past on Tuesday.
Ukrainian servicemen of the thirty third seperate assault regiment take part in a coaching at an undisclosed location in Zaporizhzhia area on Jan. 30, 2026, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Tetiana Dzhafarova/AFP by way of Getty Pictures
Neither has been keen to make ample concessions, and the Trump administration has largely put the onus on Kyiv, quite than Moscow, to make the sacrifices needed to safe a deal.
Even after one other 12 months of Trump-backed talks — together with a face-to-face summit between the Russian and American presidents in Alaska — a deal stays frustratingly elusive, in line with observers who spoke with ABC Information.
On this file picture, President Donald Trump greets Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at his Mar-a-Lago membership, Dec. 28, 2025, in Palm Seaside, Florida.
Alex Brandon/AP
“I feel that’s precisely Putin’s technique — to hope that each Ukraine and the West will tire of the warfare and that he can get a ceasefire alongside the strains he needs,” Arne Westad, a professor of worldwide and international historical past at Yale College, instructed ABC Information.
A ready sport has been the Kremlin’s plan all alongside, Westad stated, however the dangers for Putin are larger now than they’ve been all through the warfare.
“His battlefield losses have been astonishingly excessive and the financial system is struggling greater than it has earlier than,” Westad stated on Sunday. “I don’t count on that the latter will lead him to actual negotiations simply but. However the timeframe on the Russian aspect is narrowing.”
US stands again, Europe steps up
America’s abdication has left Europe shouldering an rising share of the burden. The European Union is by far Ukraine’s largest financial and navy backer, with Germany the biggest particular person contributor of arms.
The U.S. is not underwriting weapons for Ukraine, however is as a substitute promoting them to Kyiv and its different companions by way of NATO’s PURL — Prioritised Ukraine Necessities Listing — initiative.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, left, is greeted by French President Emmanuel Macron as he arrives for a gathering of the ‘Coalition of the Prepared’ on Ukraine on the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2026.
Thomas Padilla/AP
The Europe-dominated “Coalition of the Prepared” has led the event of a multinational peacekeeping power to be deployed to Ukraine post-war. Trump and his administration are cautious of placing American “boots on the bottom,” although U.S. logistical, intelligence, surveillance and air help might be essential to again any overseas power deployed to Ukraine as a part of Western safety ensures.
European leaders have additionally acted as guarantors of Ukrainian pursuits within the tortuous peace talks course of. In August, a gaggle of European leaders accompanied Zelenskyy to crunch talks on the White Home, an obvious guard towards one other browbeating of the Ukrainian chief by Trump and his workforce.
Europeans, NATO Secretary-Common Mark Rutte stated earlier this month, are “stepping up.”
From left, Secretary Common of NATO Mark Rutte, Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Prime Minister of Sweden Ulf Kristersson, Prime Minister of the Netherlands Dick Schoof, Prime Minister of Denmark Mette Frederiksen, President of Finland Alexander Stubb, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Günter Sautter International and Safety Coverage Advisor to the Chancellor, Prime Minister of Poland attend a gathering on the Munich Safety Convention in Munich, Germany, Friday Feb. 13, 2026.
Kay Nietfeld/AP
Michael Kennedy, a professor of worldwide affairs at Brown College, instructed ABC Information of Kyiv’s European companions, “I’m frankly stunned that they’ve met the problem Trump brings to this wrestle by declaring that they may stand by Ukraine even when Trump won’t.”
“That provides Ukraine time even whereas they endure now much more,” he added.
“I feel that European unity will assist Ukraine maintain out, however Russia’s brutal assaults on Ukraine’s vitality grid this winter,” John Owen, a politics professor on the College of Virginia, instructed ABC Information, “as long as the U.S. continues to promote navy materiel to the Europeans to produce to Ukraine.”
He added, “Western assist has been key to Ukraine’s sustaining the stalemate with Russia and I can’t see the Europeans — who’re very fearful about Russia within the close to and medium time period — lowering their assist.”
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky poses throughout a photograph session on the sidelines of an interview with AFP journalists in Kyiv on Feb. 20, 2026, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Henry Nicholls/AFP by way of Getty Pictures
Europe’s sustained backing of Ukraine has been mirrored within the Kremlin’s speaking factors. Whereas Putin and his prime officers tiptoe round Trump, the Kremlin has repeatedly framed European leaders as rogue actors “forcing” Ukraine to proceed the warfare and fatally undermining White Home peace efforts.
“4 years into its warfare, Moscow has failed to attain any of its strategic goals,” Kaja Kallas, the EU’s overseas coverage chief, said on Monday. “The stress within the peace talks appears to be falling on Ukraine. But when we wish this warfare to cease and any peace to final, we have to see concessions from Russia. It isn’t Ukraine’s military that’s the impediment to peace, Russia’s military is.”
Drones and loss of life toll rise amid intense preventing
Putin unleashed Europe’s most damaging battle because the Second World Conflict in February 2022. What Moscow hoped, in line with analysts, could be a sublime decapitation strike lasting mere days shortly grew to become a protracted and bloody brawl.
The quagmire has sucked in a whole lot of 1000’s of service members on each side.
Ukrainian troopers carry the portrait of Oleksandr Krasikov, callsign “Sambo,” a Ukrainian serviceman and ultras member of Soccer Membership Dynamo Kyiv, who was killed within the battle throughout a funeral ceremony in Kyiv on Feb. 20, 2026, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Tetiana Dzhafarova/AFP by way of Getty Pictures
The true toll might by no means be identified. Neither aspect repeatedly publishes casualty figures, and each have purpose to distort them.
Zelenskyy stated final month that 55,000 Ukrainian troopers are identified to have died, although added that many extra are lacking.
A girl holds a candle as a symbolic illumination entitled “Rays of Reminiscence” is projected over the graves of Ukrainian troopers who died within the warfare with Russia, at Lychakiv Army Cemetery in Lviv on Feb. 23, 2026, forward of the fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Yuriy Dyachyshyn/AFP by way of Getty Pictures
Ukraine has claimed to have “eradicated” greater than 1.26 million Russian troops, an estimate that broadly chimes with the evaluation of U.S. and European intelligence businesses.
The Workplace of the United Nations Excessive Commissioner for Human Rights has verified at the very least 15,172 civilian deaths and 41,378 civilian accidents in Ukraine in the course of the full-scale invasion up to now.
Individuals burn flares throughout a funeral ceremony of Ukrainian soldier Alexander Krasikov, name signal “Sambo,” in a cemetery in Kyiv, Ukraine, Friday, Feb. 20, 2026.
Dan Bashakov/AP
Russian authorities have reported greater than 1,000 civilian deaths inside Russia, together with in occupied Crimea.
Dragging down the Ukrainian and Russian economies
Because the preventing has continued, the economies of Ukraine and Russia have dragged on, harm partially by the spending essential to maintain their militaries. And the West has levied tariff after tariff on Russia, turning it right into a buying and selling pariah for Western states however much less so for nations of the so-called “International South.”
Putin stated earlier this 12 months that the Russian financial system grew simply 1% final 12 months, a determine ABC Information is unable to confirm. Inflation in Russia has been saved low, reported at 6%, however the base rate of interest stays very excessive, at about 15.5%, stated Peter Rutland, a professor at Wesleyan College who’s written extensively in regards to the Russian financial system.
Individuals stroll close to the State Historic Museum in central Moscow in the course of the Defender of the Fatherland Day on Feb. 23, 2026.
Hector Retamal/AFP by way of Getty Pictures
“What retains the financial system going is income from oil exports, which has been reduce by the low oil worth plus stepped up U.S. and European efforts to curtail the shadow fleet carrying Russian crude to China and India,” Rutland stated on Sunday.
He added, “The consensus is that the financial system is way from ‘collapsing’ however the strains are rising.”
Whether or not the strained financial system would have an effect on Putin’s negotiations to finish the warfare are one other query completely. The Russian president has demonstrated little urgency in transferring a deal ahead, regardless of his nation’s slowed financial system.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin leaves after a wreath-laying ceremony on the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier by the Kremlin Wall to mark Defender of the Fatherland Day in Moscow on Feb. 23, 2026.
Maxim Shipenkov/POOL/AFP by way of Getty Pictures
Ukraine, in the meantime, has pursued sanctions of its personal – each financial and kinetic. Hundreds of drones at the moment are launched into Russia each month, in line with information printed by the Russian Protection Ministry, usually concentrating on Russia’s profitable vitality manufacturing and export industries.
“We both construct weapons and strike their weapons. Or we strike the supply the place their cash is generated and multiplied. And that supply is their vitality sector,” Zelenskyy stated earlier this month. “All of it is a authentic goal for us.”
Kyiv, although, is now largely reliant on monetary help from overseas. The warfare prompted demographic and financial crises. Greater than 5 million of its residents, have been scattered throughout Europe, whereas greater than 10 million have been internally displaced, in line with United Nations figures.
Loans from overseas collectors — prime amongst them the EU — grew from $30 billion in 2021 to simply below $140 billion by the tip of 2025, in line with Ukrainian Finance Ministry information.
The nationwide debt, in the meantime, ballooned to greater than $213 billion to collectors by the tip of 2025 — roughly equal with its nationwide gross home product.
The determine doesn’t embody the deliberate $106 billion mortgage from the EU, which the bloc is presently working to finalize.
Putin, Zelenskyy and Trump’s ‘good graces’
As negotiations have continued, it’s change into clear that Putin is working in unhealthy religion, stated Owen, the UVA professor.
Then why negotiate in any respect?
“As a result of Putin wants to remain in Trump’s good graces,” Owen stated.
If Putin had been to tip his true hand — the truth that he has little or no intention of creating a real deal — then Trump may really flip towards Putin. If that occurred, Trump “might restore U.S. assist to Ukraine or even perhaps go additional in serving to Ukraine and hurting Russia and Russian pursuits,” he stated.
On this file picture, President Donald Trump, proper, and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy shake arms at first of a joint information convention following a gathering at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago membership, Dec. 28, 2025, in Palm Seaside, Fla.
Alex Brandon/AP
“If Trump turned decisively towards Zelensky, then again, the U.S. might cease promoting materiel to the Europeans for supply to Ukraine –which might properly break the lengthy stalemate and assist Russia to victory,” the professor stated.
Putin wager his legacy on the gambit in Ukraine.
Current years have seen the Russian chief more and more take pleasure in ahistorical musings on Russian historical past, its pantheon of imperial heroes and his personal potential place amongst them.
On this pool {photograph} distributed by the Russian state company Sputnik, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin lays flowers on the grave of his brother, who died as a toddler in the course of the siege of Leningrad, throughout a ceremony on the Piskaryovskoye Memorial Cemetery in Saint Petersburg on January 27, 2026, marking the 82nd anniversary of the liberation of Leningrad from Nazi blockade in World Conflict Two.
POOL/AFP by way of Getty Pictures
Simply 4 months after he launched his “particular navy operation” — because the Kremlin insisted on terming the full-scale invasion — Putin likened himself to 18th century Russian Emperor Peter the Nice.
Peter fought the Nice Northern Conflict towards Sweden for 21 years to “reclaim” Russian territory, Putin stated whereas visiting an exhibition devoted to the influential tsar.
“It appears it has fallen to us, too, to reclaim and strengthen,” Putin instructed the viewers.
Win or lose, the invasion of Ukraine will outline the 73-year-old’s legacy.
“He can’t hand over his quest for victory towards Ukraine,” stated Kennedy, the Brown professor, “his legitimacy earlier than Russians — to the extent you’ll be able to name it that — is determined by his means to name Ukraine overwhelmed.”
