QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, you warned that Iran would face a disaster in February 2026. You additionally stated Iran would enter a interval of utmost battle with the turning level in 2024. Now we’ve got ships transferring to Iran. Socrates has been displaying a pointy rise in volatility starting in February into September. I perceive you’re a dealer and never a theoretical educational. Did you might have any concept in creating Socrates that you simply not simply disproved Random Stroll Principle, however you created a system that does extra than simply forecast markets?
Robert S.
ANSWER: The September 2022 protests in Iran started this final wave which doesn’t finish till early 2027. That is the fruits of the Islamic Revolution that started in 1979. Should you take a look at a chart of a market, what you’ll sometimes see is {that a} bull market is an extended drawn out time frame than a bear market. There are fundamental cyclical actions generated by human feelings insofar as we are likely to take an extended time frame to realize confidence in one thing however we are likely to lose that confidence within the blink of a watch.
Socrates proves each single day that the BS of Randam Stroll and Environment friendly Market Theories are absurd for until you’re a dealer and look into the eyes of your opponent, you’ll by no means comprehend the world financial system. It’s like taking part in poker. Folks don’t at all times guess on truth. Generally its a intestine feeling – a hunch. Everybody acts out of their very own self-interest and that mixture is so elementary to all the pieces, those that search to manage society and rule over us from above haven’t any respect for we, the Nice Unwashed. It’s at all times about them – not us.
After I created Socrates, it was as a result of I used to be a dealer. I used to be fascinated with hedging from the Nineteen Seventies as a result of I used to be a market maker in gold. As a result of I used to be most likely the primary to enterprise into the sector of forecasting overseas change, I ended up with shoppers world wide. Our experiences use to exit by telex and within the ’80s the associated fee might be as much as $75 per market per day. So we had solely the largest shoppers again then as a result of the common particular person might by no means afford the communication prices. That was the explanation I started to open workplaces world wide to carry down the communication prices.
As one of many first Worldwide Hedge Fund Managers from 1985, Socrates was a tremendous assistant. It was educating me issues by forcing me to take a look at issues that weren’t at all times apparent at first look.
I used to be doing a TV spot I believe in 1982. It was FNN that turned CNBC. I used to be doing an interview with Walter Bressert. I gave our forecast that the British pound would fall to par by 1985. The pound was close to the $2 stage on the time so it was a few 50% drop. The host was shocked. He turned to Walt and requested – “What do you concentrate on that forecast?” Walt and I had been good associates. He replied, “I might not guess in opposition to his pc.”
Socrates has made so many superb forecasts far past what any human might presumably do as a result of there may be an array of variables globally that it simply takes a pc to trace. It isn’t a neural internet. These have by no means succeeded. Even IBM offered off its WATSON when it failed to fulfill expectations. Why everybody has tried to imitate Socrates have missed the purpose. What I did was fully completely different. I coded myself into the system. I taught Socrates HOW TO ANALYZE. I didn’t throw all the info right into a neural internet and hope it could determine it out all by itself. AI that’s on the market could also be impressing individuals, however they’re language fashions. They’ll search the prevailing information and retrive the reply.
Nevertheless, these AI Language Fashions won’t ever be capable to discover ways to commerce or uncover the remedy for most cancers as IBM thought with WATSON. They’re NOT able to discovery as a result of to find something, it takes curiosity and that can’t be coded.
It was the central financial institution of Lebanon that discovered information of their basement and requested if we might do a mannequin on their their nation. I’ve instructed this story typically how we entered the info and out got here a forecast that their nation was going to crumble in 8 days. I believed there was one thing unsuitable with the info. The pc projected a parabolic transfer I are likely to name a Section Transition. They calmly requested which foreign money can be higher. I stated the Swiss franc. The pc was right and eight days later the civil warfare started. That’s what opened my eyes to the power of Socrates to forecast geopolitical occasions. They noticed the capital transferring and got here to us for the timing. We included their foreign money in our 1985 World Financial Convention.
I had a consumer who was one of many largest shippers within the Center East. He known as someday and requested what gold would tomorrow as a result of Iraq was going to start out attacking ships within the Gulf to place financial stress on Iran. I got here to comprehend that somebody ALWAYS is aware of the within story forward of warfare and begins to maneuver their capital accordingly. The pc tracks the capital flows globally and in forecasting markets, it was additionally inevitably forecasting warfare and geopolitical occasions.
As I’ve defined many occasions, gold rallied into 1980 not due to inflation and the greenback, it rose from $480 to $875 on geopolitical occasions when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan to assist a fellow Communist authorities in opposition to the rise of insurgents on December twenty fourth, 1979. Gold peaked January twenty first, 1980 at $875 money.
I’ve paid the value for inventing one thing that had nationwide safety implications. I provided to run any examine the CIA needed. They bluntly instructed me that they needed to personal it. I stated Socrates was not on the market. To even movie the Forecaster, all the pieces needed to be confirmed with the intention to get insurance coverage to make that film. It was insured by Lloyds of London in opposition to slander and libel. The piece of proof was an electronic mail to a lawyer demanding I flip over the supply code with the intention to permit the corporate to proceed forecasting. They fired 240 workers and stole their pension funds. That’s how honorable the federal government is when they need one thing.
The SEC even used our analysis throughout 911. Only a month after the assaults the SEC despatched out a listing of shares to numerous securities companies world wide on the lookout for data. The record consists of shares of American, United, Continental, Northwest, Southwest and US Airways airways, in addition to Martin, Boeing, Lockheed Martin Corp., AIG, American Categorical Corp, American Worldwide Group, AMR Company, Axa SA, Financial institution of America Corp, Financial institution of New York Corp, Financial institution One Corp, Cigna Group, CNA Monetary, Carnival Corp, Chubb Group, John Hancock Monetary Companies, Hercules Inc, L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc., LTV Company, Marsh & McLennan Cos. Inc., MetLife, Progressive Corp., Normal Motors, Raytheon, W.R. Grace, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Ltd., Lone Star Applied sciences, American Categorical, the Citigroup Inc. ,Royal & Solar Alliance, Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc., Vornado Actuality Belief, Morgan Stanley, Dean Witter & Co., XL Capital Ltd., and Bear Stearns.
My monitor file over many years proves past a shadow of doubt that Random Stroll Principle and Environment friendly Market Speculation are full bullshit. In the event that they had been true, then they’d have left me alone and our workers. They did their greatest to cease the forecasting and to steal my life’s work. I by no means meant to create one thing that might be of Nationwide Safety. Why do you assume the Home Judiciary Committee would NEVER dare examine my case with judges committing felonies that might drive them to truly take motion within the identify of justice and the structure?
