US talks pose ‘conundrum’ for Greenland, Denmark: Analysts

LONDON — U.S. officers are anticipated to satisfy with Danish and Greenlandic counterparts in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, amid President Donald Trump’s continued expressions of intent to accumulate the semi-autonomous Arctic territory regardless of collective opposition in each Copenhagen and Nuuk. 

Danish International Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen and Greenlandic International Minister Vivian Motzfeldt are set to guide the delegation to satisfy with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance. Greenland is a self-governing territory throughout the Kingdom of Denmark.

In Denmark, “that is the large nationwide information,” Jonas Parello-Plesner, a Danish political analyst and former diplomat, instructed ABC Information. “If within the first Trump interval the saying was, ‘You need to take him critically, however not actually,’ I believe the saying this time round is, ‘You need to each take him critically and actually.'”

Trump first raised the prospect of buying the territory throughout his first time period, when Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen dismissed the concept as “absurd.” Trump’s second time period has seen the president communicate extra aggressively concerning the proposal.

“Even from a yr in the past, I see a fairly stark distinction in each Greenlandic and Danish attitudes that that is truly probably actually severe and life altering for the Kingdom of Denmark,” mentioned Parello-Plesner, who’s now the manager director on the Copenhagen-based nonprofit Alliance of Democracies Basis.

Mikkel Runge Olesen, a senior researcher on the Danish Institute for Worldwide Research, instructed ABC Information that the furor is prompting deeper questions amongst Danes and Greenlanders about their long-standing ties to the U.S.

“Is that this who the U.S. is now? A superpower going round, invading its small democratic allies?” he requested. “That is scary to think about.”

“Simply consider what it can do for the American alliance system worldwide,” he added. “What sort of sign it sends — should you’re allied with the U.S., it’s possible you’ll be invaded every time it fits the U.S.”

‘You want possession’

Trump has repeatedly instructed that U.S. sovereignty over the world’s largest island is critical to make sure American safety and blunt Chinese language and Russian affect within the Arctic area.

As part of the Kingdom of Denmark, Greenland is roofed by NATO’s collective protection clause. Greenland hosts the U.S. Pituffik House Base and round 150 American troops, the U.S. having considerably downgraded its footprint from its excessive level throughout the Chilly Struggle.

A 1951 protection settlement grants the U.S. navy entry to Greenland, and Danish politicians have repeatedly expressed willingness to work with Washington to broaden the American and NATO presence there.

Danish officers have additionally sought to go off considerations concerning the supposed vulnerability of the Arctic. Final yr, Copenhagen introduced a $6.5 billion Arctic protection bundle in response to U.S. criticism that it had did not adequately defend Greenland.

However Trump and his administration seem undeterred. “In some way, we will have Greenland,” the president instructed reporters aboard Air Power One this weekend.

“If we do not take Greenland, Russia or China will and I am not letting that occur,” Trump mentioned, earlier than deriding Denmark’s navy energy on the island.

“Principally, their protection is 2 canine sleds,” Trump mentioned. “Within the meantime, you could have Russian destroyers and submarines and China destroyers and submarines in all places.”

Requested if there was a deal to be finished to keep away from additional tensions, Trump mentioned he would “like to” as a result of “it will be simpler.” 

However when pressed, the president mentioned, “I might put lots of troopers there proper now if I need. However you want greater than that. You want possession.”

Forward of this week’s assembly, Danish and Greenlandic politicians issued statements once more rebuffing any suggestion of a U.S. acquisition of the island, statements which have been backed by different European leaders.

“If the US decides to assault one other NATO nation, then every little thing would cease — that features NATO and subsequently post-World Struggle II safety,” Frederiksen mentioned in an announcement.

“Greenland is a part of the Kingdom of Denmark. Greenland is a member of NATO by means of the Commonwealth and subsequently the protection of Greenland is thru NATO,” the federal government in Nuuk mentioned in an announcement.

The leaders of all 5 political events holding seats in Greenland’s parliament additionally launched a joint assertion. “We don’t need to be Individuals, we don’t need to be Danes, we need to be Greenlanders,” they mentioned.

Earlier than heading to the U.S. on Tuesday, Rasmussen — the Danish international minister — instructed reporters in Copenhagen, “Our motive for looking for the assembly we have now now been given was to maneuver this complete dialogue, which has not turn into much less tense since we final met, into a gathering room the place we will look one another within the eye and discuss these items.”

Interesting to ‘the deal-maker’

Olesen, of the Danish Institute for Worldwide Research, mentioned Trump’s most up-to-date feedback “ought to fear Danish politicians.” His obvious dismissal of Copenhagen’s efforts to bolster its Arctic readiness “implies that both he hasn’t observed” or “he would not care. And both approach, it is fairly dangerous.”

Trump instructed The New York Instances he believed U.S. possession of Greenland “is what I really feel is psychologically essential for fulfillment.” That, too, is “problematic” for Copenhagen, Olesen mentioned. “How do you cope with that?” he requested.

“That is the conundrum for the Danish and the Greenlandic politicians,” Olesen mentioned, “making an attempt to not provoke Trump an excessive amount of and making an attempt to present him one thing.”

“Will probably be tough to supply a compromise if all he needs is possession,” he added.

Parello-Plesner, the previous Danish diplomat, mentioned the experiences of different nations throughout Trump’s second time period could provide fashions.

Trump’s give attention to Panama and perceived Chinese language overreach produced a proposed deal for a U.S. agency to take management of two ports there owned by a Hong Kong conglomerate. The president described the deal as “reclaiming the Panama Canal.”

José Raúl Mulino, the president of Panama, addressed Trump’s feedback concerning the Panama Canal in a put up on X final March, saying partly: “President Trump is mendacity once more. The Panama Canal isn’t within the means of being recovered, and this was actually not a subject of dialogue in our conversations with Secretary Rubio or anybody else. On behalf of Panama and all Panamanians, I reject this new affront to the reality and to our dignity as a nation.”

In Ukraine, Kyiv alleviated U.S. strain by agreeing to a uncommon earth minerals sharing deal as a part of the U.S.-Ukraine Reconstruction Funding Fund.

“There’s additionally a really pragmatic facet to Trump — the deal maker,” Parello-Plesner mentioned. “I believe our facet wants to present him one thing to work with,” he added.

That might imply recent commitments on American navy deployments in Greenland, a deal associated to the territory’s untapped mineral wealth or a pledge to do extra to dam autocratic states from asserting their Arctic ambitions, Parello-Plesner mentioned.

It’s unclear what would possibly attraction to the U.S. facet, he continued. “We have seen for 30 years that the U.S. has simply wished to chop down on the presence up there and solely makes use of it for restricted missile protection functions,” he mentioned.

Concerning Greenland’s believed mineral wealth, Parello-Plesner mentioned the U.S. authorities and personal corporations have been largely uninterested given the territory’s inhospitable climate and terrain, extraction challenges and world market forces.

A symbolic win could be sufficient to take the warmth out of Trump’s push, Olesen mentioned.

“It’ll be attention-grabbing to see how far Danish and Greenlandic politicians really feel they’ll go with a view to keep away from being humiliated, with a view to keep away from handing over the Greenlandic underground to a bully,” Olesen continued.

“However then once more, the stakes are so excessive, so I would not rule it out, and I would not rule out that if that is one thing that might resolve the disaster.”

Within the meantime, each analysts mentioned Copenhagen and Nuuk are prone to give attention to bolstering the picture of home unity, European solidarity, backing from the U.S. Congress and NATO-led Arctic safety.

“The Trump coverage line isn’t invulnerable,” Olesen mentioned, noting pushback from U.S. voters and members of Congress — together with distinguished Republicans.

“Sooner or later, Trump could determine that it is not well worth the hassle anymore, and in that case, it will in all probability be smart to supply him some solution to save face and get out of it,” he mentioned.

However months of backwards and forwards over Greenland have already finished important injury to transatlantic sentiment in Denmark, Parello-Plesner mentioned, in a rustic he mentioned has lengthy prided itself on broad assist for NATO and for shut relations with the U.S. Danish forces, for instance, sustained a comparable per capita casualty price because the U.S. within the invasion and occupation of Afghanistan.

That energy of feeling, he mentioned, “has dropped tremendously.”