WHY THE DIFFERENT REACTION?
Why was the response to political dissent so completely different this time? The present protests are happening within the shadow of Iran’s 12-day battle with Israel final June. Iranian officers are nonetheless reeling from the battle and working on the belief that it might resume at any time.
That risk looms bigger than home political unrest, as a result of Israel’s battering of Hezbollah and the collapse of Bashar Al Assad’s regime in Syria have left Iran with little deterrence towards overseas intervention.
Including insult to damage, Iran is not in a position to forestall overseas actors from boosting widespread discontent at dwelling. Throughout the June 2025 battle, Iranians did rally to the flag, and the regime reacted by enjoyable its enforcement of spiritual guidelines, most notably relating to hijabs.
However the present protests pose a dilemma: Cracking down too laborious might undo the delicate understanding that the regime solid with the inhabitants after the battle, whereas letting them develop might invite overseas intervention.
Iran’s worsening financial system has additionally been a decisive issue. A mixture of mismanagement, corruption, and crippling sanctions has brought about rampant inflation and unemployment, steadily weakening the center class and increasing the ranks of the struggling poor.
The June battle accelerated these developments. Within the six months following it, the rial misplaced over 40 per cent of its worth and inflation surged by as a lot as 60 per cent. With many assuming that the hobbling of Iran’s nuclear programme had lowered its leverage to barter sanctions reduction, capital flight quickly adopted.
