Republika Srpska, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Serb-majority entity, votes Sunday in a snap presidential election known as after electoral authorities stripped separatist Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik of the presidency in August.
Dodik was eliminated after he was convicted for refusing to hold out choices issued by Christian Schmidt, the worldwide peace envoy who oversees implementation of the Dayton peace settlement that ended the 1992–95 Bosnian Conflict.
The court docket additionally handed him a one-year prison sentence – which he averted by posting bail – and banned him from collaborating in politics for six years. Bosnia’s prime court docket upheld that ruling in early November.
In October, the Nationwide Meeting of Republika Srpska appointed Ana Trisic-Babic as an interim president till the Sunday election.
Right here’s what we all know concerning the vote, and why it issues.
When are the snap Republika Srpska elections happening?
In line with Bosnia’s Central Election Fee (CIK), voting might be open on Sunday, November 23, between 7am (06:00 GMT) and 7pm (18:00 GMT). Greater than 1.2 million individuals, spanning the three predominant ethnic teams – Serbs, Bosniaks and Croats – are eligible to vote. Turnout in earlier presidential elections has usually ranged between 50 % and 55 %.
Though Trisic-Babic was appointed as an interim president, the legislation nonetheless requires new elections inside 90 days of a president’s removing.
The winner of Sunday’s election will serve solely the rest of Dodik’s time period, lower than a yr, till subsequent October’s normal elections.
When will the outcomes be introduced?
Preliminary outcomes are anticipated on election night time, however the ultimate official vote rely by the Central Election Fee might be introduced solely after the physique additionally validates all outcomes.
What’s Republika Srpska?
Republika Srpska is one in all two predominant political entities inside Bosnia, together with the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina – every of which enjoys vital autonomy. The 2 share equal rights over a small, third self-governing administrative unit throughout the nation, often called the Brcko District.
Republika Srpska was proclaimed by Bosnian Serb leaders in 1992 initially of the 1992–95 warfare and was formally established as a part of Bosnia’s post-war constitutional construction in 1995 beneath the Dayton peace settlement.
Republika Srpska covers about 49 % of Bosnia’s territory, whereas the remaining 51 % types the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Republika Srpska has its personal authorities, parliament, judiciary and police, however not its personal military.
In the present day, it’s overwhelmingly Serb-populated, with Serbs making up roughly 82 percent of its residents, alongside smaller Bosniak and Croat minorities, based on the newest census, which was held greater than a decade in the past in 2013.
Its demographics modified drastically throughout and after the warfare, and due to the ethnic cleansing of non-Serb communities. Earlier than the battle, Bosniaks and Croats made up about half of the inhabitants within the space that’s now Republika Srpska; at the moment, they account for lower than 17 %.
Its first president, Radovan Karadzic, has been sentenced to life in The Hague for the 1995 genocide against Bosniaks in Srebrenica, now a city inside Republika Srpska.
Why are the elections vital?
The elections come at a extremely delicate time for Bosnia. Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Republika Srpska has intensified its rhetoric to secede from Bosnia, with Dodik – an in depth ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin – more and more calling for the entity to interrupt away, probably to affix Serbia.
These elections will decide who replaces Dodik after his removing from workplace and his lengthy dominance over Republika Srpska’s politics. The vote can also be a check of how a lot affect he can nonetheless exert, regardless of being banned from political exercise.
Who’re the candidates?
There are six candidates on the poll, 4 nominated by Republika Srpska’s political events, and two operating as independents.
The principle contenders are Sinisa Karan of Dodik’s ruling Alliance of Impartial Social Democrats (SNSD), who’s immediately backed by Dodik, and Branko Blanusa of the opposition Serb Democratic Celebration (SDS).
Karan is a longtime member of Dodik’s internal circle and a former Republika Srpska inside minister. He serves as minister for scientific and technological growth and better schooling within the present Republika Srpska authorities.
In line with Radio Free Europe, he was a part of a gaggle ‘tasked’ to draft an SNSD plan for Republika Srpska to interrupt away from Bosnia.
Analysts say Dodik sees Karan as an extension of his personal energy. Dodik has appeared prominently at Karan’s rallies.
Blanusa, the SDS candidate, is a member of the occasion’s Banja Luka Metropolis Committee and a professor on the School of Electrical Engineering on the College of Banja Luka.
The SDS, now the primary opposition occasion in Republika Srpska, was initially led by Karadzic. It is usually a Serb nationalist occasion and has lengthy competed with Dodik’s SNSD for a similar voters.
Whereas it’s vital of Dodik’s type of governance and allegations of corruption, it broadly shares comparable positions on key political points, together with relations with the capital Sarajevo and scepticism in direction of the worldwide overseer of the peace settlement.
The opposite party-backed candidates are Nikola Lazarevic of the Ecological Celebration of Republika Srpska and Dragan Dokanovic of the Alliance for New Politics (SNP).
Two independents, Igor Gasevic and Slavko Dragicevic, are additionally on the poll however have remained nearly solely exterior the general public eye.
Who’s Milorad Dodik?
Milorad Dodik, 66, is the previous president of Republika Srpska.
Backed by Western governments within the late Nineteen Nineties, he grew to become the entity’s prime minister in 1998 and was seen as a promising different to the hardline nationalist management of genocide convict Karadzic and the then-ruling SDS, which dominated the post-war interval. Then-US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright described Dodik as “a breath of contemporary air”, and each the USA and the UK positioned their hopes in him as a extra reasonable future choice.
He was among the many first leaders in Republika Srpska to acknowledge the Srebrenica genocide. In a 2007 interview with a Bosnian tv outlet, Dodik, the president of SNSD since its formation, mentioned he knew “completely properly what passed off” and that “there was a genocide in Srebrenica”.
“That judgement was made by the court docket in The Hague, and that’s an plain authorized reality,” he mentioned.
He has served three phrases as president of Republika Srpska, holding two consecutive mandates from 2010 to 2018 and profitable once more in 2022. In 2018, he was elected because the Serb member of Bosnia’s three-member presidency.
Throughout this era, nevertheless, Dodik adopted a much more nationalist stance, repeatedly calling for the entity’s secession, and denying the Srebrenica genocide – going again on his personal earlier admissions.
In 2023, Dodik signed two controversial payments that, in essence, mentioned that choices of the Dayton Settlement peace envoy and rulings of Bosnia’s constitutional court docket wouldn’t apply to Republika Srpska. The peace envoy and the constitutional court docket blocked these payments.
In March 2025, the constitutional court docket issued arrest warrants for Milorad Dodik and a number of other of his allies on costs of undermining the constitutional order. However a month later, members of the Republika Srpska police blocked officers from the State Investigation and Safety Company (SIPA) from coming into the executive centre of the Republika Srpska authorities to arrest Dodik, additional intensifying tensions with Sarajevo.
In August, Bosnia’s electoral authorities stripped Dodik of the presidency and banned him from collaborating in politics. He, nevertheless, stays the president of the SNSD occasion and continues to be its strongest determine.
Does the Republika Srpska political disaster have an effect on Bosnia as an entire?
Sure. Bosnia as a rustic depends on a power-sharing system by which the 2 entities are carefully linked. Republika Srpska’s problem in opposition to state establishments and the rise of secessionist threats can have an effect on the soundness of the nation on the nationwide stage.
The early election additionally strains Bosnia’s financial system. The vote is funded from the state funds, fairly than the entity’s personal establishments, in a rustic with one of the smallest economies in Europe. Bosnia’s Central Election Fee has allotted greater than six million Bosnian marks (near $4m) for the elections.
The UK authorities, one of many guarantors of the 1995 Dayton Peace Accords, mentioned at a United Nations Safety Council assembly on Bosnia in October that holding presidential elections within the Republika Srpska would give “a chance for formation of their new authorities,” insisting that “the constitutional order and rule of legislation in Bosnia and Herzegovina should be upheld”.
“We encourage a concentrate on constructive and cooperative politics, together with between Bosnia and Herzegovina’s two entities,” Jennifer MacNaughtan, the UK consultant, mentioned on the assembly.
In October, Russia, a powerful ally of Republika Srpska, praised the switch of energy from Dodik to interim president Babic, however had additionally mentioned that the Workplace of the Excessive Consultant peace envoy (OHR) needs to be “completely closed”, echoing Dodik’s stance.
In dialog with the media, the spokesperson of Russia’s Ministry of Overseas Affairs, Maria Zakharova, mentioned the Russian Federation “wholeheartedly helps” the wrestle of the management of Republika Srpska in opposition to “eroding elementary ideas” of the Dayton peace treaty.
The US has not formally commented on the elections, however the Division of the Treasury has lately lifted sanctions in opposition to Dodik, his relations and his allies, together with the SNDS candidate Karan, for undermining the Dayton peace settlement. Bosnia’s Serb officers have steered they have been quietly searching for a extra cooperative relationship with the US, whereas nonetheless preserving their pleasant ties with Russia.
Republika Srpska’s strongest ally, Serbia, has taken a extra cautious stance than typical. In an interview with the state-owned Radio Tv of Serbia, Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic – who has confronted antigovernment protests which have shaken the nation for nearly a yr now – averted commenting on the elections immediately. He mentioned he wished “all the perfect” to Republika Srpska and hoped every little thing would “cross peacefully”. He added that Serbia would all the time be there to assist with “infrastructure”.
What are the attainable situations after the election?
If SNSD’s Karan wins, the entity would probably stay beneath Dodik’s affect. Chatting with Euronews Serbia, Karan mentioned the vote had been “compelled” onto Republika Srpska by the peace envoy Schmidt and {that a} vote for him is “a vote for President Dodik”.
The ruling SNSD additionally holds a powerful majority within the Nationwide Meeting of Republika Srpska.
Blanusa, from the opposition SDS occasion, advised native BN tv that Republika Srpska, beneath the present management, has turn out to be “impoverished, displaced and remoted”, and has pledged to make tackling corruption within the entity his predominant objective.
Certainly, the entity faces deep financial challenges. In line with the Database of Economic Indicators of Republika Srpska, whole gross home product (GDP) for 2023 was about 16 billion Bosnian marks (about $9bn), half of the GDP of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina – and so, a 3rd of the nationwide financial system.
The election verdict may additionally supply clues to political tendencies forward of subsequent yr’s October elections, which may decide who guidelines the entity for an additional 4 years.
