MANAGING A POST-CIVIL WAR SYRIA
In Syria, years of civil conflict that had exacerbated splits amongst ethnic and spiritual teams lastly led to December 2024. Since then, Arab Gulf international locations, which as soon as opposed the Iranian-allied authorities of Bashar Assad, have been pivotal in supporting new Syrian President Ahmed Al Sharaa. They efficiently lobbied the US to drop sanctions.
Along with sharing mutual regional pursuits with Sharaa, the leaders of Gulf Arab states desire a Syrian state that’s free from inside conflict and might take up the hundreds of thousands of refugees that fled the battle to different international locations within the Center East.
Gulf states can help postwar Syria diplomatically and financially. Nevertheless, they’ll’t want away the legacy of lengthy conflict and sectarian strife. Israeli attacks on Syrian soil since Assad’s fall, in addition to latest outbreaks of combating within the Sweida area of southern Syria, underscore the continued fragility of the Syrian authorities and issues over its capability to comprise violence and migration exterior of its borders.
THE CHALLENGE OF REGIONAL POLITICS
Syria illustrates a broader coverage problem for Gulf states. As their wealth, army power and affect have grown, these international locations have grow to be dominant within the Arab world.
Consequently, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have invested billions of {dollars} in efforts to affect governments and teams internationally. This contains the principally authoritarian governments within the Center East and North Africa, comparable to Egypt’s.
However right here, Gulf states are torn politically. If democratic programs kind elsewhere within the Arab world, this might encourage Gulf residents to push for elected authorities at house. But overly coercive Arab governments exterior of the Gulf may be liable to common unrest and even civil conflict.
Propping up unpopular regional governments dangers backfiring on Gulf Arab leaders in one in every of two methods.
First, it may entice Gulf states into protracted and damaging wars, comparable to was the case with Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s failed army intervention in Yemen in opposition to the Houthis. Second, it may drive a wedge between Gulf states, as is seen with the current conflict in Sudan, through which the Saudis and Emiratis are backing rival factions.
