4 Fantasy Football Busts for 2025 Based on ADP vs. Expert Rankings

Javonte Williams, RB, Cowboys

Javonte Williams seems to be one of many extra overdrafted working backs in 2025 fantasy soccer, significantly when his Common Draft Place (ADP) is in contrast with Raybon and Koerner’s rankings. Whereas consensus ADP knowledge locations Williams round RB34, each specialists have him a lot nearer to RB43, highlighting a notable disparity. This means that fantasy drafters are nonetheless shopping for in primarily based on his identify recognition and early-career potential, reasonably than the participant he’s now.

Final season in Denver, Williams carried the ball 139 occasions for 513 speeding yards—a mean of simply 3.7 yards per carry—and located the top zone 4 occasions over 17 video games. He additionally added 52 receptions for 346 yards however failed to attain a receiving landing. Regardless of getting quantity, the dynamic capacity he displayed as a rookie was lacking. Williams has by no means surpassed 12 fantasy factors per recreation in any of his 4 NFL seasons and now heads into a brand new state of affairs in Dallas with no assure of a lead-back function.

In Dallas, Williams joins a crowded backfield with Miles Sanders and rookies Jaydon Blue and Phil Mafah. Williams has reportedly acquired some first-team reps in camp, however it’s too early to foretell how the committee will shake out. If the Cowboys do break up carries to open the season, drafting Williams the place he’s presently going seemingly received’t yield a optimistic return. Raybon, in actual fact, has Williams at RB53, which might make him solely the RB2 on his personal group.

Whereas there should still be hope for a post-hype breakout, the specialists are pessimistic. Williams hasn’t recaptured his rookie 12 months kind, and his present competitors, together with a diminished Dallas offensive line, make him a dangerous choice. Until he falls to the late rounds, relying on him for vital manufacturing is probably going a recipe for disappointment.

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Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys

It isn’t simply the working backs—our specialists are additionally much less optimistic about Dak Prescott’s outlook than a lot of the fantasy soccer neighborhood. Prescott’s status nonetheless holds weight, however Raybon is tempering expectations. Though Prescott is being drafted because the QB12 total, Raybon ranks him all the way in which down at QB21. Koerner, then again, is extra optimistic, slotting Prescott at eleventh amongst quarterbacks.

Prescott has been hampered by accidents lately, taking part in 12 or fewer video games in two of the final three seasons, together with simply 8 contests final 12 months. Even earlier than his damage, he wasn’t posting excellent numbers. In these 8 begins, Prescott threw 8 interceptions and simply 11 touchdowns, whereas his completion share (64.7%) was his lowest since 2017. Now at age 32, his speeding manufacturing has additionally sharply diminished—he’s scored solely 5 speeding touchdowns over the previous 4 seasons.

The addition of George Pickens gives Prescott with one other high-ceiling goal to pair with CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson, however each the offensive line and the working recreation stay areas of concern. Whereas it’s unlikely the Cowboys might be much less efficient on the bottom than they have been final 12 months, it’s robust to place an excessive amount of confidence in an entire turnaround. With Dallas leaning closely on Prescott and the passing assault, it’s unsure whether or not he’ll be capable of face up to the calls for of carrying the offense all season.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins

At first look, Tua Tagovailoa’s fantasy profile appears strong—he topped the NFL in passing yards in 2023 and completed because the QB9 for fantasy. Nonetheless, for those who’re drafting him at his present 2025 ADP of QB16, you is perhaps chasing previous promise as an alternative of right now’s actuality.

Let’s have a look at the professional consensus. Chris Raybon ranks Tua at QB20, whereas Sean Koerner places him even additional down at QB23. Each take into account him extra of a borderline QB2 than a reliable QB1 in commonplace leagues. Their warning is justified. In 2024, Tua missed six video games after one other concussion—his second prolonged absence for head accidents in three years—so danger of additional damage must be factored in.

Even when Tua performed final 12 months, his effectivity faltered. His common depth of goal fell to five.9—the bottom within the league. Regardless of a career-high 72.9% completion fee, this didn’t translate to big-time fantasy manufacturing; he threw simply 19 touchdowns in 11 video games and ranked because the QB21 in whole fantasy factors.

Tua nonetheless delivers glorious effectivity on brief and intermediate passes and advantages from having Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle as prime choices. However his lack of speeding manufacturing and ongoing sturdiness issues make it dangerous to anticipate a top-15 end at his place. With extra depth than ever within the late-round quarterback pool, Tua’s present draft worth merely doesn’t account for the draw back danger.

Best Ball rankings from among the prime trade specialists are additionally accessible on FantasyLabs.

Davante Adams, WR, Rams

Davante Adams continues to be drafted as if he’s an elite fantasy choice, however his present state of affairs suggests he might come up in need of expectations. He’s being chosen round WR15, but Raybon ranks him at WR20, indicating that managers is perhaps hanging on to recollections of the model of Adams from his days in Inexperienced Bay.

Now 32 years outdated, Adams is on the Rams and sharing appears to be like with Puka Nacua. He’s now not the clear prime goal in his offense, so between elevated competitors for targets and the pure results of getting older, it’s onerous to justify utilizing a third-round choose on him.

His path to Los Angeles concerned a midseason commerce final 12 months: Adams started with the Raiders after which moved to the Jets, the place he put up a strong 67 receptions for 854 yards and seven touchdowns over 11 video games. With the Rams, he’ll be entering into the function Cooper Kupp left behind—a job that introduced comparable stats but additionally trended downward late within the season.

Adams nonetheless has a lot going for him as a cultured route-runner and a menace close to the top zone, however the days of anticipating true WR1 upside are seemingly over. He’s nonetheless a high quality participant, simply not the central focus of his group’s passing recreation anymore. For those who take him at WR15, you’re paying for a ceiling he’s unlikely to achieve as a secondary choice at age 32. Raybon’s rating at WR20 is way more lifelike, and drafting him increased than that’s in all probability wishful considering.