President Trump introduced a 25% on India starting August 1 on account of its continued buy of Russian oil. “Keep in mind, whereas India is our buddy, now we have, through the years, performed comparatively little enterprise with them as a result of their Tariffs are far too excessive, among the many highest within the World, they usually have probably the most strenuous and obnoxious non-monetary Commerce Limitations of any Nation,” the president posted to Fact on Wednesday morning. “Additionally, they’ve at all times purchased a overwhelming majority of their navy tools from Russia, and are Russia’s largest purchaser of ENERGY, together with China, at a time when everybody needs Russia to STOP THE KILLING IN UKRAINE,” he added.
India started drastically rising its imports of Russian crude initially of the Russia-Ukraine warfare in 2022, with good motive, because the oil turned considerably cheaper and India was in a position to resell it at a premium to nations that merely wished to bypass all issues Russia. In January 2022, India was importing round 68,000 barrels per day (bpd) in Russian crude, which represented solely 0.2% of crude imports. The warfare broke out a month later and by June India was importing 1.12 million bpd from Russia who overtook Iraq because the nation’s high provider. Almost a yr later in Might 2023, Russian imports peaked at 2.15 million bpd, with India at the moment importing round 1.7 million to 2.1 million bpd as of July 2025.
Round 35% to 40% of India’s crude oil now comes from Russia. Now, Russian crude was round $50 per barrel in Might 2025 when imports to India peaked. Center Jap grades had been round $10 to $20 greater on the time. The deal was a no brainer.
India-US bilateral commerce hit $118.4 billion in 2024. India exported roughly $79.4 billion in items to the US and imported $39 billion. The present commerce deficit with the US sits at $45.7 billion. A 25% tariff might value India billions in misplaced income from exports and threaten jobs in key sectors comparable to autos, chemical substances, jewellery, gems, electronics, and textiles. Different Asian exporters would change into extra fascinating, however China really purchases extra Russian crude than India at this level and different nations within the area have drastically smaller economies. Estimates state India might threat shedding $15 billion to $20 billion yearly on account of the 25% tariff.
Now, if India had been compelled to purchase from the Center East for $10 to $20 extra per barrel, the nation would wish to spend round $6 to $10 billion extra on power yearly. India does refine and resells Russian crude and is alleged to usher in round $1.5 billion to $3.5 billion from that observe.
On paper, it could appear as if India has extra to lose by persevering with to buy Russian oil. Nevertheless, the US is displaying the world that it has the flexibility to dictate political coverage by means of financial warfare. India declared that it stays dedicated to persevering with “mutually helpful bilateral commerce” with the US after the 25% tariff was introduced. The US will go in any case BRICS nations in an try and dismantle the alliance, however BRICS members have proven that they now not must depend on the West, and tariffs from the US might not maintain the identical leverage as they as soon as did.
