QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, we enormously recognize your braveness, and it’s obvious that you’ve contacts that no one else has. You mentioned China takes 80% of Iran’s oil. I assume they get that by way of the Straits of Hormuz. If Iran had been to close down the Strait of Hormuz, wouldn’t that considerably influence their gross sales to China? You will have defined the Center East higher than anybody I’ve ever learn or watched on TV. Iran warned of “eternal penalties” after the U.S. bombed three main nuclear websites. I can see what you’re laying out: that that is the start relatively than the tip. Do you assume China or Russia will enter this battle quickly?
Bret
ANSWER: The explanation Iran can assault the Straits of Hormuz is that the media has unreported the completion of the China-Iran railway hyperlink, which is a major milestone inside China’s Belt and Highway Initiative (BRI), particularly reviving the traditional Silk Highway by way of trendy infrastructure. By the way in which, the traditional metropolis of Antioch grew to become so rich as a result of it served as a key hyperlink to the Silk Highway, the place all items entered the Greek and Roman world. The time period assumed the “PURPLE” was related to a Roman emperor as a result of it was a dye from Asia that arrived by way of Antioch. It was decreed that solely the emperor might put on it.
Antioch was the port metropolis in Syria. It was strategic all through historical past. I’ve defined, maybe not in nice element, however China has been reestablishing the traditional Silk Highway. Iran can shut down the Straits of Hormuz, and it’ll NOT influence the export of oil to China. The China-Iran railway hyperlink, a part of the broader China-Central Asia-West Asia Financial Hall, primarily depends on the Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran (KTI) Railway as its crucial connector. The settlement was signed between China, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Iran, finalizing the KTI Railway settlement in 2013. The development started in December 2014. The primary direct freight prepare from China to Iran arrived in Tehran on February 15, 2016.
Now, have a look at this from a geopolitical perspective. You will have the Houthis attacking ships within the Purple Sea. With this rail line, Iran can shut down the Strait of Hormuz, and the Houthis maintain the strain on, stopping the visitors by way of the Suez Canal. They’ve the power to influence the vitality circulate out of the Center East considerably.
The Shia Muslims don’t management “most” of the oil within the Center East, although they dwell in areas with important reserves. Management is primarily held by nationwide governments and state-owned corporations, not by sects immediately. Nonetheless,
Saudi Arabia 267 billion barrels (17% od international confirmed reserves)
Iran 208 billion barrels (4th largest globally)
Iraq 145 billion barrels (fifth largest globally)
Kuwait 102 billion barrels reserves. Sunni-led monarchy
United Arab Emirates (UAE) 98 billion barrels reserves. Sunni-led federation.
Qatar Main fuel producer, additionally has oil. Sunni-led monarchy.
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, and Qatar (all Sunni-led monarchies) maintain a considerably bigger portion of the area’s confirmed oil reserves mixed than Iran and Iraq. Nevertheless, the Shia-Majority Areas are Necessary. Iran and southern Iraq (Shia heartland) have large reserves and are essential producers. Iran is a founding member of OPEC. Whereas management is nationwide, not sectarian, this may be unstable in instances of struggle, as we noticed throughout the Nineteen Seventies.
What I imagine is important right here is the railway between China and Iran. The first rail hall connecting China to Iran grew to become absolutely operational in recent times. Trains now run commonly from varied Chinese language cities (like Yiwu, Xi’an) by way of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, terminating in Tehran. The ultimate part crossing Turkmenistan into Iran was finalized, making your entire route viable. This now facilitates considerably bigger volumes of commerce between Iran and China. China exports electronics, equipment, textiles, and industrial items. Iran exports petrochemicals, minerals, agricultural merchandise (like saffron, pistachios), and doubtlessly extra oil/fuel sooner or later (although sanctions complicate this).
This gives China with a vital overland path to entry Center Jap markets and sources, lowering dependence on weak sea lanes just like the Strait of Malacca. It additionally affords Iran a significant different commerce hall, mitigating the influence of Western sanctions and lowering its isolation. Entry to the huge Chinese language market and Eurasian rail community is essential.
Take into account that this has now launched a geopolitical alignment between Iran and China. Each China and Iran are performing as a counterbalance to US affect within the area. It integrates Iran extra firmly into China’s Eurasian connectivity imaginative and prescient. This railway is now a crucial nationwide safety subject for China.
The US sanctions on Iran stay a major hurdle. Worldwide banks and corporations are cautious of facilitating transactions, limiting the route’s full potential. China makes use of workarounds, however sanctions create friction and danger. They’ve solely additional divided the world economic system, giving the inducement for the institution of BRICS, which has undermined the worldwide economic system as an entire, dividing the world in half, all for the geopolitical instigation of the Neocons.
China has certainly accomplished and operationalized main rail hyperlinks to Iran by way of Central Asia. This represents a transformative achievement for the Belt and Highway Initiative, providing a quicker, land-based commerce artery between East Asia and the Center East. Whereas challenges akin to sanctions and logistical hurdles persist, the hyperlink considerably boosts commerce, gives Iran with an financial lifeline, strengthens Sino-Iranian ties, and enhances Eurasian connectivity. It’s a concrete realization of the trendy Silk Highway imaginative and prescient. The Neocons have dominated American international coverage, they usually have NEVER given financial coverage a second thought.
I used to be the primary advertiser to assist Invoice Kristol launch The Weekly Normal. We took the again cowl each week, till I spotted he was NOT an financial conservative, he was a Neocon. They had been centered purely on the geopolitical elements of redesigning the Center East and defeating Russia and China. I don’t communicate from hypothesis. I had a front-row seat to the plans and targets that by no means took into consideration the worldwide economic system. That is what created BRICS – their vanity. I’ve even attended White Home dinners.
