On the floor, it was a routine closed-door assembly between Bangladesh’s interim chief and Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus and the chiefs of the nation’s three armed forces, to debate legislation and order.
However the Might 20 assembly got here amid what a number of officers accustomed to the interior workings of the federal government described to Al Jazeera as an intensifying energy wrestle in Dhaka. Portrayed in each social and mainstream media in Bangladesh as a “chilly warfare” between the armed forces and the interim administration, these tensions now threaten the way forward for Yunus’s position, 9 months after he took cost following the ousting of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the ruling Awami League.
Hasina fled to India in August 2024 amid a mass uprising in opposition to her 15-year-long rule, throughout which she was accused of orchestrating extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances.
We unpack the most recent tumult in Bangladesh, and what it means for the nation’s fledgling efforts to return to electoral democracy.
Why are tensions mounting between the army and the federal government?
The Bangladesh Military has remained deployed since July 2024, following the mass protests that led to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s ouster. Their continued presence was necessitated by the collapse of civilian legislation enforcement throughout the upheaval, together with a nationwide police strike that left many stations deserted and public order in disarray.
Though the police resumed operations in mid-August, the military’s presence has been maintained as a part of a civil-military consensus, due to unrest within the nation.
On Wednesday, Bangladesh’s military chief, Common Waker-Uz-Zaman, publicly urged that nationwide elections be held by December this 12 months, warning that extended deployment of the military for civil duties might compromise the nation’s defences.
In keeping with a report by The Day by day Star, Common Waker instructed a high-level gathering at Dhaka Cantonment, “Bangladesh wants political stability. That is solely potential via an elected authorities, not by unelected decision-makers.” The feedback got here throughout a uncommon deal with through which he delivered a 30-minute speech, adopted by greater than an hour of questions and solutions. Officers from throughout the nation and at Bangladeshi UN missions reportedly joined the occasion, each bodily and nearly, in full fight uniform – a present of unity and resolve.
“The military is supposed for defending the nation, not for policing … We should return to barracks after elections,” Waker was quoted in The Day by day Star as saying.
His remarks point out a distinction of opinion with the Yunus administration’s acknowledged intention of holding elections no sooner than mid-2026, to permit time for political and electoral reforms first, so as to guarantee a good election.
In keeping with native media stories, Waker can also be strongly against key initiatives being thought of by the interim authorities. On a proposed humanitarian hall into Myanmar’s Rakhine State, he reportedly stated: “There will probably be no hall. The sovereignty of Bangladesh isn’t negotiable.” He warned that any such transfer might drag Bangladesh right into a harmful proxy battle. “Solely a political authorities elected by the folks could make such selections,” he stated, in line with the paper.
The military chief additionally voiced concern about making different selections with out an electoral mandate – together with the potential overseas administration of Chattogram Port, Bangladesh’s foremost seaport, and the launch of Starlink, Elon Musk’s satellite tv for pc web service – which he stated might compromise nationwide safety. “The military won’t permit anybody to compromise our sovereignty,” The Day by day Star quoted him as saying.
His remarks got here amid widespread hypothesis – nonetheless unaddressed by both the army or the federal government – that the Yunus administration had tried to take away Common Waker from his put up final week. Although unconfirmed, the hearsay has dominated public discourse and prompted questions on civil-military relations throughout the transitional interval.
The timing, due to this fact, of Common Waker’s assertive public assertion – and its emphasis on constitutional course of and nationwide sovereignty – is extensively considered as a sign of rising unease throughout the army over the interim authorities’s increasing civilian initiatives, in line with analysts.
Are there tensions with political events as properly?
Sure. Since its formation on August 8 final 12 months, the interim authorities has confronted escalating strain from totally different sides. Whereas the principle opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Celebration (BNP) insists that nationwide elections have to be held by December, the Nationwide Citizen Celebration (NCP) – a student-led social gathering shaped earlier this 12 months – and several other different political teams argue that sweeping reforms and the prosecution of former Awami League (AL) leaders for killings ensuing from the brutal crackdown on student-led protests final 12 months should precede any election.
Bangladesh’s largest political social gathering, the BNP, has launched a wave of protests over different calls for as properly, together with that its candidate, who misplaced an allegedly rigged mayoral election in Dhaka on February 1, 2020, underneath the Awami League regime, be reinstated as mayor.
On Thursday, the BNP held a information convention demanding an election by the tip of the 12 months, in addition to the resignation of two scholar advisers and the nationwide safety adviser. The social gathering warned that with out these steps, continued cooperation with the Yunus-led administration would grow to be untenable.
On Saturday, Yunus is anticipated to satisfy with each the BNP and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI), the biggest Islamic political social gathering in Bangladesh.
Is Yunus making ready to resign?
Amid this rising turbulence, hypothesis has intensified that Yunus could also be making ready to resign. Native media started reporting that he had indicated that he meant to step down and deal with the nation in a televised assertion, throughout a cupboard assembly on Thursday afternoon, following widespread social media chatter.
That night, Nahid Islam – a scholar chief from the July rebellion in opposition to the earlier authorities and now head of the newly shaped Nationwide Citizen Celebration (NCP) – met Yunus together with two scholar advisers to make an enchantment for him to remain on.
After the assembly, Nahid confirmed to BBC Bangla that Yunus was critically contemplating stepping down.
By Friday night (13:00 GMT), sources throughout the interim administration instructed Al Jazeera that Yunus was nonetheless weighing his choices.
Nevertheless, two authorities sources stated Yunus is prone to convene an emergency cupboard assembly on Saturday, throughout which he’s anticipated to debate the following plan of action. One of many sources confirmed that Yunus’s resignation stays a risk.
Why may Yunus wish to resign?
Yunus is considering resigning due to intensifying political strain, in line with native media stories.
Two advisers quoted within the Samakal newspaper stated Yunus instructed cupboard members on Thursday that the political events and different authorities establishments had didn’t ship on guarantees to cooperate with the transitional authorities to implement state reforms and a peaceable democratic transition because the fall of Hasina’s authorities final 12 months.
It had grow to be inconceivable to hold out his obligations, he was reported as saying. Stress can also be mounting to carry an election. “The prospect of a good election within the present scenario is slim,” he stated. He was involved any election could be interfered with or rigged and he didn’t wish to should take duty for it.
Afterward Thursday night, Yunus met Info Adviser Mahfuj Alam, Native Authorities Adviser Asif Mahmud Shojib Bhuyain and NCP convenor Nahid Islam at his official residence, the Jamuna State Visitor Home in Dhaka.
Chatting with BBC Bangla afterwards, Nahid confirmed Yunus was contemplating resigning and quoted him as saying he felt “held hostage” by protests and political gridlock.
“I can’t work like this should you, all of the political events, can’t attain a typical floor,” Nahid quoted Yunus as saying. He urged the interim chief to “stay robust”, stressing the hopes the general public had pinned on him after the July rebellion that ousted the Awami League authorities.
In the meantime, Yunus’s formidable reform agenda is reportedly faltering, with analysts noting that key arms of the state – together with the police and civil paperwork – are more and more slipping past the interim authorities’s management.
One hanging instance amongst many, they are saying, is a proposal to separate the Nationwide Board of Income (NBR), the nation’s authority for tax administration, overseeing the gathering of earnings tax, value-added tax (VAT) and customs duties, into two separate entities – a transfer that the federal government says is geared toward enhancing effectivity and the integrity of Bangladesh’s tax system. This has been met with robust resistance from senior officers of the NBR over fears that skilled income officers will probably be sidelined.
What does the BNP need?
Chatting with Al Jazeera, BNP chief Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury stated his social gathering doesn’t need Yunus to resign. “No person requested for his resignation, and we are not looking for him to take action,” he acknowledged.
“The individuals are ready to solid their vote and convey again democracy. They’ve been disadvantaged of this for practically 20 years,” stated Khasru. “We count on him to go for a free and honest election and peacefully hand over energy. That’s how he got here in.”
He questioned the delay in setting an election timeline. “What’s the anticipate? That is one thing [about which] a really robust dialog is happening within the nation.”
Khasru stated the BNP needs the administration to maneuver into caretaker mode – with a leaner cupboard and the elimination of some controversial figures, significantly these with political ambitions or affiliations. “They’ve already floated a political social gathering,” he stated, referring to the scholar representatives. “Others made partisan statements. These ought to go should you’re critical a few credible election.”
He dismissed any contradiction between reforms and elections, saying each might transfer ahead concurrently. “The place there’s consensus, reforms may be accomplished inside weeks.”
Khasru additionally voiced confidence within the Election Fee and the position of the military in making certain a good vote. “This isn’t the period of Sheikh Hasina,” he remarked, suggesting a extra conducive political surroundings for elections.
On the query of attempting former Awami League leaders, he stated judicial processes might proceed in parallel. “The judiciary should do its job – the elected authorities will proceed if extra is required.”
“BNP suffered essentially the most underneath the earlier regime,” he added. “The trials are a nationwide consensus.”
BNP Standing Committee member Salahuddin Ahmed echoed this sentiment in a TV interview on Friday: “If Yunus is personally unable to hold out his duties, the state will discover an alternate.” However he added: “As a globally revered determine, we hope he’ll perceive the scenario and announce an election roadmap by December.”
What do different political events need?
NCP’s Senior Joint Convenor Ariful Islam Adeeb rejected the BNP’s narrative, telling Al Jazeera: “All events had been meant to assist the interim authorities after the July rebellion, however the BNP caught to previous ways primarily based on muscle energy – that’s the basis of the disaster.”
He urged unity, saying: “BNP and all different events should come collectively for the nationwide curiosity.”
In the meantime, demonstrations and behind-the-scenes conferences continued throughout Dhaka. On Thursday night, prime leaders of 5 political events, together with the NCP, attended an emergency assembly on the headquarters of one other Islamic political social gathering, Islami Andolan Bangladesh (IAB), known as by its chief Mufti Syed Muhammad Rezaul Karim.
They urged all “anti-fascist forces” to unite, defend nationwide sovereignty, and assist a reputable election underneath Yunus after key reforms. A number of of those events, together with BJI, argue that elections should come after key reforms – akin to adopting a proportional voting system and making certain accountability for previous abuses – to forestall any repeat of previous authoritarian practices. They imagine holding elections with out these modifications would undermine public belief and threat one other disaster.
BJI chief Shafiqur Rahman joined the IAB assembly by way of cellphone and endorsed the decision. On Thursday, he urged Yunus to convene an all-party dialogue to resolve the disaster.
Then, on Friday evening, BJI’s Shafiqur Rahman requested a gathering with Yunus, proposing to convene at 12:00 GMT (6pm native time) on Saturday.
Chatting with Al Jazeera on Friday evening, NCP Joint Convenor Sarwar Tushar stated: “Regardless of the rumours, we imagine Dr Muhammad Yunus is dedicated to his historic duty.
“There’s huge expectation – each from the worldwide neighborhood and the folks,” he added.
Whereas acknowledging political divisions, Tushar stated: “If everybody strikes past social gathering agendas and focuses on a nationwide agenda, the disaster may be resolved via dialogue.”
What can we count on subsequent?
Political analyst Rezaul Karim Rony instructed Al Jazeera that discuss of Yunus’s resignation could replicate rising frustration over the shortage of unity throughout the transitional setup. “The unity that had shaped across the post-uprising interim authorities seems to be weakening attributable to vested pursuits,” he stated. “The resignation discuss is perhaps a sign underscoring the necessity to rebuild that unity.”
Rony instructed that sure authorities appointments could have alienated political events, elevating questions on whether or not some actors have agendas past the official reform mandate. “This might be one cause why the federal government is struggling to realize broad political cooperation and performance successfully,” he famous.
Rony added: “At this level, advocating for elections could [make the administration] seem politically aligned with the BNP. However in the long run, it must be as much as the folks to resolve who they wish to lead.”
NCP’s Nahid Islam, nonetheless, sees in any other case.
He warned in a Fb put up on Friday evening: “There’s a conspiracy to sabotage the democratic transition and stage one other 1/11-style association.”
The time period “1/11” refers to January 11, 2007, when the military-backed caretaker authorities took management in Bangladesh amid political chaos and dominated for 2 years, suspending democratic processes.
“Bangladesh has repeatedly been divided, nationwide unity destroyed, to maintain the nation weak,” Nahid wrote.
Urging Yunus to remain in workplace and ship on guarantees of reform, justice and voting rights, he stated, “Dr Yunus should resolve all political crises whereas in workplace.”
He additionally outlined NCP’s calls for: a well timed July declaration, elections throughout the introduced timeframe (Yunus has repeatedly promised that the election will probably be held between December 2025 to July 2026), a July Constitution with core reforms earlier than polls, seen justice for the July killings, and a roadmap for a brand new structure via simultaneous elections to a Constituent Meeting and legislature.
In the meantime, public nervousness is rising. On Friday, the Bangladesh Military issued a Fb alert debunking a faux media launch circulated a day earlier, which falsely used the army’s emblem in what it described as “an obvious try to sow confusion and create rifts” between the armed forces and the general public. “Don’t imagine rumours. Don’t be misled,” the assertion warned.
Because the weekend approaches, all eyes are on Muhammad Yunus – and whether or not he’ll resign, stand agency, or forge a brand new consensus to guide the nation via its second transition since final 12 months’s dramatic rebellion.
