As US President Donald Trump sat within the Oval Workplace on February 28 with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for an explosive assembly that may reveal deep fissures between Washington and Kyiv, he was additionally requested by a reporter about one other world chief: Vladimir Putin.
Within the very setting during which he joined forces with Vice President JD Vance to berate Zelenskyy for not being grateful to the US for its navy and monetary assist, and for not backing his makes an attempt at diplomacy with Moscow, Trump had extra sympathetic phrases for the Russian president.
“Let me inform you, Putin went by means of a hell of quite a bit with me,” Trump mentioned, referring to the persistent allegations from opposition Democrats that Russia helped him come to energy, which overshadowed his first time period.
Two weeks later, as Ukraine has accepted – beneath Trump strain – a ceasefire with Russia with out providing Kyiv the safety ensures it seeks, the query of what’s driving the US president to go comparatively smooth on Putin is as soon as once more grabbing headlines.
One concept has gained some floor in current days. Trump, some strategists argue, is making an attempt a delicate geopolitical manoeuvre: By pulling Russia nearer to the US, he’s attempting to wean it away from China, Washington’s greatest long-term rival and Moscow’s greatest benefactor.
They’re calling it the “reverse Nixon”, after US President Richard Nixon’s historic rapprochement with China within the Seventies. The transfer normalised US-China relations after practically 25 years and deepened a wedge between the Soviet Union and China in a defining second for the Chilly Struggle.
So are Trump’s strikes a part of a diplomatic calculus to weaken the bond between Russia and China that has dramatically strengthened in recent times? And might the US achieve that endeavour?
The brief reply: That’s unlikely. Consultants level out that the US president has additionally despatched feelers to China in a bid to enhance ties – undercutting options that he’s attempting to tug Moscow away from Beijing. And nothing that the US does, they are saying, will make Putin threat relations with China. As a substitute, Trump’s strikes may find yourself serving to Beijing.
A ‘broader rehabilitation’ of ties with Russia
While Trump ran for president on the promise that he would end the Russia-Ukraine war, his recent outreach to Putin since taking office has gone “far beyond” peace talks, according to William Jackson and Mark Williams, economists at Capital Economics, an independent macroeconomics consultancy based in the United Kingdom. By some accounts, the president appears set on a “broader rehabilitation of US-Russia relations”, they wrote in a late February note.
They cite Trump’s frequent use of Russian talking points on the war in Ukraine – the US president has alleged that Kyiv was responsible for starting the war – and his suggestion that Russia should return to the Group of Seven (G7), a select group of highly industrialised democracies, among other examples. Russia was a member of the grouping – then named the G8 – until its 2014 invasion of Crimea, when it was booted out by other members.
Trump has publicly discussed the “potentially historic economic partnerships” and “incredible opportunities” for US companies in Russia should its war with Ukraine end. Russia has been economically isolated for the past three years due to international sanctions, and the end of the war could change that.
Since Trump’s very public dismissal of Zelenskyy during their White House meeting two weeks ago, the US president has also spoken about how he finds it easier to deal with Russia than Ukraine at times, especially when it comes to peace negotiations.
But behind Trump’s approach to Russia lies a larger game plan, some members of his administration, and some experts, have suggested.
At the Munich Security Conference in February, Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, said that the US wanted to “break” the alliance between Russia, China and North Korea. In an interview with the right-wing website Breitbart, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke of how Russia’s dependency on China – which has grown during the war with Ukraine – was not a “good outcome” for Washington.
In a March article, historian and strategist Richard Luttwak argued that the White House bust-up with Zelenskyy and the push to get Ukraine to compromise in a bid to end the Russia war “was all done in the service of Trump’s larger and longer term ambition of neutralising China”. Luttwak, who did not respond to a request for comment from Al Jazeera for this article, described Trump’s policy as a “reverse Nixon”.
Other facts, however, raise questions about the idea of a grand strategy underpinning Trump’s efforts to woo Putin, say several analysts.
Is that this a ‘reverse Nixon’?
For Michael Clarke, a historian and strategic professional at Australia’s Deakin College who specialises in China’s overseas coverage, “there’s a actual ahistoricism with the ‘reverse Nixon’ argument”.
“The present state of affairs bears nearly no resemblance to the state of affairs confronted by Nixon and Kissinger in 1969-70,” Clarke instructed Al Jazeera, referring to Henry Kissinger, a former US nationwide safety adviser and secretary of state.
A key distinction, he mentioned, is that by the point Nixon met with Chairman Mao Zedong in Beijing in 1971, relations between the USSR and China have been in steep decline. The 2 sides have been engaged in protracted ideological battle over the way forward for the worldwide Communist motion and so they had lately engaged in a navy confrontation over their joint border in 1969.
In contrast, Russia and China are as we speak nearer than they’ve ever been – certain by robust financial, navy and strategic cooperation, and a shared loathing of the West.
Jaehan Park, an assistant professor on the S Rajaratnam Faculty of Worldwide Research in Singapore, mentioned that Nixon additionally had a really totally different popularity at residence that allowed him to upend US overseas coverage. Not like Trump, who critics alleged was a beneficiary of Russian election interference in 2016, Nixon was by no means accused of personally gaining from a detente with Beijing.
“Nixon was in a position to do what he did as a result of he was characterised as a staunch anti-Communist, however Mr Trump’s relationship with Russia on the whole, and Mr Putin particularly, has been beneath scrutiny within the American media and public discourses for a very long time,” Park instructed Al Jazeera.
Given Putin’s standing as a “persona non grata within the West”, Park mentioned that even Republican senators would possibly “not be totally heat to the concept of chopping offers with Russia”.
In the meantime, Trump’s method to China isn’t very clear, both.
Trump has imposed 20 % tariffs on Chinese language imports – although these are decrease than some tariffs on Canada and Mexico – and spoken of a man-made intelligence race with Beijing. However he has additionally “boasted of his ‘nice’ relationship with [Chinese President] Xi Jinping and talked up the opportunity of a brand new commerce cope with Beijing”, Clarke mentioned.
The US president has spoken of wanting stronger collaboration with China, and has pushed for coordinated reductions within the nuclear stockpiles of Moscow, Beijing and Washington, mentioned Ali Wyne, a senior researcher on US-China relations on the Worldwide Disaster Group.
All of this implies that Trump “appears as an alternative to check a ‘G3’ that units the phrases of geopolitics”, Wyne instructed Al Jazeera.
And what about Putin?
From ‘respect’ to ‘murderous dictator’
Trump isn’t the primary US president to courtroom Putin.
In November 2001, then-US President George W Bush hosted the Russian chief at his non-public ranch within the tiny city of Crawford, Texas. Putin and his then-wife Lyudmila stayed the night time on the ranch. Bush spoke publicly about how Putin was the primary world chief who known as him after the 9/11 assaults. The Russian chief additionally backed the US invasion of Afghanistan.
“I’m satisfied that he and I can construct a relationship of mutual respect and candour. And I’m satisfied that it’s essential for the world that we accomplish that,” Bush instructed reporters.
Wearing frayed denims, Bush drove Putin in a white Ford pickup truck to a waterfall on the ranch, beginning a apply the 2 would typically interact in over time: When Bush visited Russia in 2005, they drove collectively within the Russian chief’s classic 1956 Volga automotive. A yr later, when the US president returned to Russia for a G8 summit, they drove an electrical automotive collectively.
However relations rapidly started to lurch from disaster to disaster, over points starting from the US’s 2003 invasion of Iraq, and Russia’s 2008 invasion of Georgia, to NATO’s growth into Europe.
The US and Russia skilled a quick reset beneath US President Barack Obama, however relations collapsed once more following Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea and Putin’s help for President Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
Whereas Trump had optimistic issues to say about Putin throughout his first time period in workplace, the US-Russia relationship didn’t enhance very a lot. In reality, Trump imposed recent sanctions on Russia – in addition to on Iran and North Korea – beneath the Countering America’s Adversaries Via Sanctions Act (CAATSA).
But it surely was the conflict in Ukraine that ended any prospects of a thaw. Below President Joe Biden, the US armed and financed Ukraine by means of the battle. For the reason that conflict started in 2022, the US and its allies have imposed not less than 21,692 sanctions on Russia in a bid to cripple its financial system and pressure it into stopping its navy marketing campaign. Biden described Putin as a “murderous dictator” and a “pure thug”.
And because the US pushes for a peace deal in Ukraine, Trump, too, has urged that he would possibly impose extra sanctions on Russia if it doesn’t play ball.
Over 1 / 4 of a century, Putin has developed a “longstanding and visceral disdain and mistrust of the US”, mentioned Clarke.
Trump can’t change that, consultants say.
“There may be little, if any, cause to conclude that President Putin sees the second Trump administration’s overseas coverage as the brand new US regular,” mentioned Wyne. “He possible discerns a quick window of alternative to safe tactical concessions from a transactional counterpart, to not impact a basic recalibration of US-Russia relations.”
Distinction that with Russia’s relations with China, say consultants, and it turns into even clearer why Putin can’t afford to jeopardise ties with Beijing.
‘No-limits partnership’
In February 2022, Putin visited Beijing for the Winter Olympics, after which dedicated to a “no-limits partnership” with Xi, his host.
Days later, the Russian chief would launch his full-fledged invasion of Ukraine, testing these promised limits as nation after nation got here beneath strain to sentence Moscow and be part of a rising band of countries keen to penalise the Kremlin.
China resisted that strain, refusing to sentence Russia whereas claiming neutrality within the conflict. By the point the battle began, Putin and Xi have been already shut companions: They’ve met greater than 40 occasions since Xi got here to energy in 2012, first as basic secretary of the Chinese language Communist Social gathering after which as president.
However the Ukraine battle has deepened Russia’s dependence on China, which has emerged as an important lifeline for its northern neighbour at a time when Moscow has confronted backbreaking sanctions.
Greater than 1,000 overseas corporations left or wound down operations after the invasion, in keeping with the Yale Faculty of Administration, and Chinese language corporations have stuffed the vacuum.
China, in flip, acquired sharply discounted oil and pure gasoline from Russia, which turned a serious new vacation spot for its manufactured items. Chinese language exports to Russia rose by 70 % between 2021 and 2024, in keeping with Capital Economics, with Russia absorbing a good portion of China’s export growth after the COVID-19 pandemic. China can be a supply of dual-use expertise akin to drones, and affords diplomatic help to Russia’s pursuits in weakening US energy, mentioned Clarke.
Bilateral commerce between Russia and China has soared from $140bn in 2021 to $244bn in 2024.
However for Russia and China, consultants say, there’s one thing much more basic concerning the relationship than {dollars} earned and corporations launched.
“The impetus for China-Russia relations is structural: every nation regards the US as its principal adversary and sees the opposite as an essential accomplice in its efforts to keep away from navy, financial and diplomatic encirclement,” mentioned Wyne.
Clarke agreed.
“Russia and China are in robust alignment and have clear incentives to proceed that alignment and the Trump administration by all appearances has no clear concept about how or why pivoting to Putin assists both American pursuits – arguably it very a lot doesn’t – or contributes to stabilisation of worldwide politics,” he mentioned.
To make sure, Trump’s concessions on Ukraine will matter to Putin, he mentioned. However they “don’t trump what he [Putin] features from continued alignment with Beijing”, Clarke mentioned.
It could, he mentioned, be “strategically inept to burn the long-term relationship with Beijing to safe a relationship with the Trump administration, which may in fact be out of workplace by 2028”.
And so far as China is anxious, it received’t be apprehensive a couple of “reverse Nixon”, say analysts. In reality, it could be able to reverse Western alliances due to Trump.
‘Useful to Beijing’
China might be carefully watching Trump’s makes an attempt at a rapprochement with Putin, mentioned Clarke. Will probably be disillusioned that it doesn’t have a extra outstanding diplomatic function within the efforts to finish the Russia-Ukraine conflict, he added.
However on the entire, Trump’s posture on the conflict “may very well be seen as useful to Beijing” for 2 causes, Clarke mentioned.
First, the US’s weakened conviction in direction of Ukraine’s defence might be seen by China as proof that if Beijing persists lengthy sufficient, it may possibly “outlast the US” – together with on the query of how the West would possibly reply to a possible forcible takeover of Taiwan.
“One lesson that Beijing may probably draw right here is that the conflict in Ukraine has demonstrated that the US and the West should not ready to commit their very own militaries to the defence of ‘associates’ akin to Ukraine, neither is the imposition of Western-led sanctions in response one thing that can’t be overcome,” Clarke mentioned.
Second, Trump’s transactional method in direction of conventional allies, “during which US dedication to defend allies is conditional on what allies present the US”, possible weakens Washington’s dedication to its Asian companions who typically depend upon the US as a counter to China.
However there’s a 3rd potential profit for China, too. Trump’s mounting commerce conflict with Europe and his reluctance to decide to alliances on the continent would possibly push nations there to discover stronger ties with Beijing, as China presents itself because the upholder of globalisation.
“Whereas his ‘America First’ overseas coverage is unlikely to alter the underlying dynamics of US-China and US-Russia relations, it’s already doing extreme injury to longstanding US alliances and partnerships, particularly in Europe,” Wyne mentioned.
